March Madness Final Four betting patterns and trends

Best College Basketball Trends: Final Four Betting Patterns

Following a great college basketball season, the Madness is getting to the most exciting part as we prepare for the Final Four. Perhaps you were unable to keep track of all the teams in the field throughout the season and tournament but want to have some action on the Final Four – don’t worry, we have March Madness betting trends to help you out.

Below we have listed the best OVER/UNDER teams as well as the best and worst ATS teams among those still in contention for the national championship, with the UConn Huskies sitting as -125 favorites to win the title. These trends, along with the information at our computer picks page, should be helpful when placing your bets this week. 

March Madness Betting Trends: Totals

Here is how the four remaining teams fared when it comes to their game totals this season.

NCAA March Madness O/U Record

NCAA March Madness O/U Record
TeamO/U Record
No. 4 Connecticut20-17-0 (54.1%)
No. 9 FAU18-16-0 (52.9%)
No. 5 Miami (FL)17-18-1 (48.6%)
No. 5 San Diego State14-22-0 (38.9%)

UConn has breezed through the competition at the NCAA Tournament, with all of its wins coming by 15 points or more, including a whopping 28-point victory over Gonzaga in the Elite Eight. So it’s not surprising to see the Huskies have hit the OVER this season more than any other team remaining in the tournament. The total for UConn’s Final Four meeting with No. 5 Miami is set at 149.5 and the Huskies are currently 2-2 on the O/U while dancing. The Hurricanes aren’t a defensive wagon, allowing 72.1 PPG to rank outside the nation’s top 200, which is probably why four of their last five matchups have hit the OVER. 

If you like to bet on the UNDER, then No. 5 San Diego State is promising. The Aztecs, dating back to the regular season, have hit the UNDER in 12 straight contests. That’s likely a reflection of their defense, which gives up just 63.1 PPG to rank 23rd in Division 1.


March Madness Betting Trends: ATS Records

If you’re not a fan of betting on totals, no worries, we have March Madness betting trends for spreads as well.

NCAA March Madness: Final Four ATS Records

NCAA March Madness Against The spread Record
TeamATS Record (Cover percentage)
No. 4 Connecticut25-11-1 (69.4%)
No. 9 FAU22-11-1 (66.7%)
No. 5 Miami (FL)22-14-0 (61.1%)
No. 5 San Diego State19-15-2 (55.9%)

Connecticut, the highest remaining seed, has the best spread record among the Final Four participants. The Huskies have covered in their last four games, in which they were favored by 3 points or more each time. UConn is a 5.5-point favorite going into its national semifinal matchup with No. 5 Miami. The last time those teams met, the Huskies blasted the Hurricanes 80-55, covering a 1.5-point line in the 2019 contest. 

Now if you’re looking for the squad that cashes in the underdog line, then the No. 9 Florida Atlantic Owls are your team. Currently 3-1 ATS at the Big Dance, the Owls only flopped in their second-round meeting with No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson when they were 16-point chalk and won by only eight. Aside from that, FAU has beaten the odds by winning and covering over No. 8 Memphis, No. 4 Tennessee and No. 3 Kansas State. In the Final Four, FAU is a 1.5-point underdog again going up against San Diego State. 

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