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March Madness Matchups: 3 vs 14 Betting History & Trends

March Madness 3 vs 14 betting history

From 2000 through 2012, there were only three March Madness upsets involving the No. 14 seed against the No. 3 seed. But there was at least one in each of the next four years, including Stephen F. Austin knocking off West Virginia 70-56 as a 7-point pup in 2016.

Stephen F. Austin’s 14-point victory over West Virginia matched the record for the biggest win of any No. 14 seed over the No. 3; Ohio beat Georgetown 97-83 in 2010. Before the Lumberjacks, the previous five upsets were all decided by three points or less. And just two of those took place between 2000 and 2009, with Bucknell (2005) and Northwestern State (2006) each winning by one point.

Only two No. 14 seed teams have ever advanced to the Sweet 16.

Prior to 2000, there was at least one upset of a No. 14 seed beating a No. 3 in 11 of 15 years since the NCAA Tournament field expanded to 64 teams in 1985. The exceptions were 1985, 1993, 1994 and 1996. In addition, there were two years in which two No. 14 seeds advanced to the second round (1986 and 1995). In 1986, Arkansas-Little Rock and Cleveland State upset Notre Dame and Indiana, respectively. In 1995, it was Weber State defeating Michigan State and Old Dominion needing three overtimes to boot Villanova.

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Should You Be Betting No. 3 or No. 14 Seed?

The No. 3 seeds have been painfully average at the betting window over the past eight March Madness brackets, going 16-16 against the spread vs the No. 14 in 32 games. It was a 4-0 ATS sweep for the 14 seed in 2015 and, in 2010, the No. 14 seeds went 3-1 ATS including the straight-up victory by Ohio. There were two other years since 2000 when the No. 14 seeds enjoyed the same success with a 3-1 ATS mark (2001 and 2006). The best stretch for the No. 3 seeds since 2000 happened from 2007 through 2009 when they went 12-0 straight up and 10-2 ATS.

Of the 21 No. 14 seeds that have pulled off an upset in the first round, only two have ever advanced to the Sweet 16 (Cleveland State in 1986 and Chattanooga 11 years later) and none made the Elite Eight. Cleveland State and Chattanooga both beat No. 6 seeds in the second round before bowing out of the NCAA Tournament.

Seed vs Seed Stats: 1 vs 16 | 2 vs 15 | 3 vs 14 | 4 vs 13 | 5 vs 12 | 6 vs 11 | 7 vs 10 | 8 vs 9

#3 Seed vs #14 Seed
#3 SeedScore#14 SeedScoreDateATS WinWin SeedATS Seed
Texas Tech72Northern Kentucky572019-03-22Texas Tech33
Purdue61Old Dominion482019-03-21Purdue33
Houston84Georgia State552019-03-22Houston33
Tennessee73Wright State472018-03-15Tennessee33
Texas Tech70Stephen F. Austin602018-03-16Stephen F. Austin314
Michigan State82Bucknell782018-03-16Bucknell314
Baylor91New Mexico State732017-03-17Baylor33
Florida State86Florida Gulf Coast802017-03-16Florida Gulf Coast314
UCLA97Kent State802017-03-17Kent State314
Utah80Fresno State692016-03-17Utah33
Texas A&M92Green Bay652016-03-18Texas A&M33
West Virginia56Stephen F. Austin702016-03-18Stephen F. Austin1414
Notre Dame69Northeastern652015-03-19Northeastern314
Iowa State59UAB602015-03-19UAB1414
Baylor56Georgia State572015-03-19Georgia State1414
Iowa State93North Carolina Central752014-03-21Iowa State33
Syracuse77Western Michigan532014-03-20Syracuse33
Florida79Northwestern State472013-03-22Florida33
New Mexico62Harvard682013-03-21Harvard1414
Michigan State65Valparaiso542013-03-21Michigan State33
Florida State66St. Bonaventure632012-03-16St. Bonaventure314
Baylor68South Dakota State602012-03-15Baylor33
Syracuse77Indiana State602011-03-18Syracuse33
Purdue65Saint Peter’s432011-03-18Purdue33
New Mexico62Montana572010-03-18Montana314
Baylor68Sam Houston State592010-03-18Sam Houston State314
Kansas84North Dakota State742009-03-20Kansas33
Syracuse59Stephen F. Austin442009-03-20Syracuse33
Louisville79Boise State612008-03-21Louisville33
Wisconsin71CS Fullerton562008-03-20Wisconsin33
Oregon58Miami (Ohio)562007-03-16Miami (Ohio)314
Pittsburgh79Wright State582007-03-15Pittsburgh33
Texas A&M68Pennsylvania522007-03-15Texas A&M33
Washington State70Oral Roberts542007-03-15Washington State33
North Carolina69Murray State652006-03-17Murray State314
Iowa63Northwestern State642006-03-17Northwestern State1414
Florida76South Alabama502006-03-16Florida33
Arizona66Utah State532005-03-17Arizona33
Pittsburgh53Central Florida442004-03-19Central Florida314
Georgia Tech65Northern Iowa602004-03-19Northern Iowa314
North Carolina State61Louisiana-Lafayette522004-03-19North Carolina State33
Marquette72Holy Cross682003-03-20Holy Cross314
Duke67Colorado State572003-03-20Colorado State314
Pittsburgh71Cent Conn State542002-03-15Pittsburgh33
Mississippi State70McNeese State582002-03-15Mississippi State33
Georgia85Murray State682002-03-15Georgia33
Arizona86Santa Barbara812002-03-14Santa Barbara314
Florida69Western Kentucky572001-03-16Florida33
Maryland83George Mason802001-03-15George Mason314
Boston College68Southern Utah652001-03-15Southern Utah314
Oklahoma State86Hofstra662000-03-17Oklahoma State33
Ohio State87Appalachian State612000-03-17Ohio State33
Kentucky82New Mexico State601999-03-12Kentucky33
Cincinnati72George Mason481999-03-12Cincinnati33
St. John’s69Samford431999-03-11St. John’s33
North Carolina74Weber State761999-03-11Weber State1414
Stanford67College of Charleston571998-03-13College of Charleston314
South Carolina61Richmond621998-03-12Richmond1414
Utah85San Francisco681998-03-12Utah33
Wake Forest68Saint Mary’s461997-03-14Wake Forest33
New Mexico59Old Dominion551997-03-14Old Dominion314
Texas Tech74Northern Illinois731996-03-15Northern Illinois314
Georgia Tech90Austin Peay791996-03-15Austin Peay314