From 2000 through 2012, there were only three March Madness upsets involving the No. 14 seed against the No. 3 seed. But there was at least one in each of the next four years, including Stephen F. Austin knocking off West Virginia 70-56 as a 7-point pup in 2016.
Stephen F. Austin’s 14-point victory over West Virginia matched the record for the biggest win of any No. 14 seed over the No. 3; Ohio beat Georgetown 97-83 in 2010. But, of late, No. 3 has held down the fort, including 2023, when the higher seeds went 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS.
Only two No. 14 seed teams have ever advanced to the Sweet 16.
Should You Be Betting No. 3 Or No. 14 Seed?
Before last season, the No. 3 seeds had been painfully average at the betting window over the previous nine March Madness brackets, going 18-18 against the spread vs the No. 14 in 36 games. It was a 4-0 ATS sweep for the 14 seed in 2015; in 2010, the No. 14 seeds went 3-1 ATS, including the straight-up victory by Ohio. The best stretch for the No. 3 seeds since 2000 happened from 2007 through 2009 when they went 12-0 straight up and 10-2 ATS.
However, last season saw a near clean sweep by the No. 3 seeds, going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS with the only spread loss coming as Wisconsin just missed its 7.5-point line during a 67-60 win over Colgate. The No. 3 seeds went undefeated again this year while going 2-2 ATS. Higher-seeded Xavier (-12.5) and Gonzaga (-15.5) didn’t cover their hefty spreads.
no. 3 vs no. 14 betting history
Before the Lumberjacks, the previous five upsets were all decided by three points or less. And just two of those took place between 2000 and 2009, with Bucknell (2005) and Northwestern State (2006) each winning by one point.
Another one was added to the tally in 2021 as Abilene Christian knocked off the No. 3-seeded Texas Longhorns 53-52. Many people expected this one to be closer than a typical 3 vs 14 matchup as the closing spread was 8.5 in favor of Texas. But not many expected the Longhorns to lose.
Prior to 2000, there was at least one upset of a No. 14 seed beating a No. 3 in 11 of 15 years after the NCAA Tournament field expanded to 64 teams in 1985. The exceptions were 1985, 1993, 1994 and 1996. In addition, there were two years in which two No. 14 seeds advanced to the second round (1986 and 1995). In 1986, Arkansas-Little Rock and Cleveland State upset Notre Dame and Indiana, respectively. In 1995, it was Weber State defeating Michigan State and Old Dominion needing three overtimes to boot Villanova.
Of the 22 No. 14 seeds that have pulled off an upset in the first round, only two have ever advanced to the Sweet 16 (Cleveland State in 1986 and Chattanooga 11 years later) and none made the Elite Eight. Cleveland State and Chattanooga both beat No. 6 seeds in the second round before bowing out of the NCAA Tournament.
Seed vs Seed Stats: 1 vs 16 | 2 vs 15 | 3 vs 14 | 4 vs 13 | 5 vs 12 | 6 vs 11 | 7 vs 10 | 8 vs 9
| #3 Seed | Score | #14 Seed | Score | Date | ATS Win | Win Seed | ATS Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier | 72 | Kennesaw State | 67 | 2023-03-17 | Kennesaw State | 3 | 14 |
| Baylor | 74 | UCSB | 56 | 2023-03-17 | Baylor | 3 | 3 |
| Gonzaga | 82 | Grand Canyon | 70 | 2023-03-18 | Grand Canyon | 3 | 14 |
| Kansas State | 77 | Montana State | 65 | 2023-03-18 | Kansas State | 3 | 3 |
| Wisconsin | 67 | Colgate | 60 | 2022-03-18 | Colgate | 3 | 14 |
| Purdue | 78 | Yale | 56 | 2022-03-18 | Purdue | 3 | 3 |
| Texas Tech | 97 | Montana State | 62 | 2022-03-18 | Texas Tech | 3 | 3 |
| Tennessee | 88 | Longwood | 56 | 2022-03-17 | Tennessee | 3 | 3 |
| West Virginia | 84 | Morehead State | 67 | 2021-03-19 | West Virginia | 3 | 3 |
| Arkansas | 85 | Colgate | 68 | 2021-03-19 | Arkansas | 3 | 3 |
| Texas | 52 | Abilene Christian | 53 | 2021-03-20 | Abilene Christian | 14 | 14 |
| Kansas | 93 | Eastern Washington | 84 | 2021-03-20 | Eastern Washington | 3 | 14 |
| LSU | 79 | Yale | 74 | 2019-03-21 | Yale | 3 | 14 |
| Texas Tech | 72 | Northern Kentucky | 57 | 2019-03-22 | Texas Tech | 3 | 3 |
| Purdue | 61 | Old Dominion | 48 | 2019-03-21 | Purdue | 3 | 3 |
| Houston | 84 | Georgia State | 55 | 2019-03-22 | Houston | 3 | 3 |
| Tennessee | 73 | Wright State | 47 | 2018-03-15 | Tennessee | 3 | 3 |
| Texas Tech | 70 | Stephen F. Austin | 60 | 2018-03-16 | Stephen F. Austin | 3 | 14 |
| Michigan | 61 | Montana | 47 | 2018-03-15 | Michigan | 3 | 3 |
| Michigan State | 82 | Bucknell | 78 | 2018-03-16 | Bucknell | 3 | 14 |
| Baylor | 91 | New Mexico State | 73 | 2017-03-17 | Baylor | 3 | 3 |
| Oregon | 93 | Iona | 77 | 2017-03-17 | Oregon | 3 | 3 |
| Florida State | 86 | Florida Gulf Coast | 80 | 2017-03-16 | Florida Gulf Coast | 3 | 14 |
| UCLA | 97 | Kent State | 80 | 2017-03-17 | Kent State | 3 | 14 |
| Utah | 80 | Fresno State | 69 | 2016-03-17 | Utah | 3 | 3 |
| Texas A&M | 92 | Green Bay | 65 | 2016-03-18 | Texas A&M | 3 | 3 |
| West Virginia | 56 | Stephen F. Austin | 70 | 2016-03-18 | Stephen F. Austin | 14 | 14 |
| Miami | 79 | Buffalo | 72 | 2016-03-17 | Buffalo | 3 | 14 |
| Oklahoma | 69 | Albany | 60 | 2015-03-19 | Albany | 3 | 14 |
| Notre Dame | 69 | Northeastern | 65 | 2015-03-19 | Northeastern | 3 | 14 |
| Iowa State | 59 | UAB | 60 | 2015-03-19 | UAB | 14 | 14 |
| Baylor | 56 | Georgia State | 57 | 2015-03-19 | Georgia State | 14 | 14 |
| Iowa State | 93 | North Carolina Central | 75 | 2014-03-21 | Iowa State | 3 | 3 |
| Creighton | 76 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 66 | 2014-03-21 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 3 | 14 |
| Duke | 71 | Mercer | 78 | 2014-03-21 | Mercer | 14 | 14 |
| Syracuse | 77 | Western Michigan | 53 | 2014-03-20 | Syracuse | 3 | 3 |
| Florida | 79 | Northwestern State | 47 | 2013-03-22 | Florida | 3 | 3 |
| New Mexico | 62 | Harvard | 68 | 2013-03-21 | Harvard | 14 | 14 |
| Marquette | 59 | Davidson | 58 | 2013-03-21 | Davidson | 3 | 14 |
| Michigan State | 65 | Valparaiso | 54 | 2013-03-21 | Michigan State | 3 | 3 |
| Georgetown | 74 | Belmont | 59 | 2012-03-16 | Georgetown | 3 | 3 |
| Florida State | 66 | St. Bonaventure | 63 | 2012-03-16 | St. Bonaventure | 3 | 14 |
| Baylor | 68 | South Dakota State | 60 | 2012-03-15 | Baylor | 3 | 3 |
| Marquette | 88 | BYU | 68 | 2012-03-15 | Marquette | 3 | 3 |
| Syracuse | 77 | Indiana State | 60 | 2011-03-18 | Syracuse | 3 | 3 |
| Purdue | 65 | Saint Peter’s | 43 | 2011-03-18 | Purdue | 3 | 3 |
| Connecticut | 81 | Bucknell | 52 | 2011-03-17 | Connecticut | 3 | 3 |
| BYU | 74 | Wofford | 66 | 2011-03-17 | Wofford | 3 | 14 |
| Pittsburgh | 89 | Oakland | 66 | 2010-03-19 | Pittsburgh | 3 | 3 |
| New Mexico | 62 | Montana | 57 | 2010-03-18 | Montana | 3 | 14 |
| Georgetown | 83 | Ohio | 97 | 2010-03-18 | Ohio | 14 | 14 |
| Baylor | 68 | Sam Houston State | 59 | 2010-03-18 | Sam Houston State | 3 | 14 |
| Missouri | 78 | Cornell | 59 | 2009-03-20 | Missouri | 3 | 3 |
| Kansas | 84 | North Dakota State | 74 | 2009-03-20 | Kansas | 3 | 3 |
| Syracuse | 59 | Stephen F. Austin | 44 | 2009-03-20 | Syracuse | 3 | 3 |
| Villanova | 80 | American | 67 | 2009-03-19 | American | 3 | 14 |
| Louisville | 79 | Boise State | 61 | 2008-03-21 | Louisville | 3 | 3 |
| Wisconsin | 71 | CS Fullerton | 56 | 2008-03-20 | Wisconsin | 3 | 3 |
| Stanford | 77 | Cornell | 53 | 2008-03-20 | Stanford | 3 | 3 |
| Xavier | 73 | Georgia | 61 | 2008-03-20 | Xavier | 3 | 3 |
| Oregon | 58 | Miami (Ohio) | 56 | 2007-03-16 | Miami (Ohio) | 3 | 14 |
| Pittsburgh | 79 | Wright State | 58 | 2007-03-15 | Pittsburgh | 3 | 3 |
| Texas A&M | 68 | Pennsylvania | 52 | 2007-03-15 | Texas A&M | 3 | 3 |
| Washington State | 70 | Oral Roberts | 54 | 2007-03-15 | Washington State | 3 | 3 |
| North Carolina | 69 | Murray State | 65 | 2006-03-17 | Murray State | 3 | 14 |
| Iowa | 63 | Northwestern State | 64 | 2006-03-17 | Northwestern State | 14 | 14 |
| Gonzaga | 79 | Xavier | 75 | 2006-03-16 | Xavier | 3 | 14 |
| Florida | 76 | South Alabama | 50 | 2006-03-16 | Florida | 3 | 3 |
| Kansas | 63 | Bucknell | 64 | 2005-03-18 | Bucknell | 14 | 14 |
| Gonzaga | 74 | Winthrop | 64 | 2005-03-17 | Winthrop | 3 | 14 |
| Arizona | 66 | Utah State | 53 | 2005-03-17 | Arizona | 3 | 3 |
| Oklahoma | 84 | Niagara | 67 | 2005-03-17 | Oklahoma | 3 | 3 |
| Pittsburgh | 53 | Central Florida | 44 | 2004-03-19 | Central Florida | 3 | 14 |
| Georgia Tech | 65 | Northern Iowa | 60 | 2004-03-19 | Northern Iowa | 3 | 14 |
| North Carolina State | 61 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 52 | 2004-03-19 | North Carolina State | 3 | 3 |
| Texas | 66 | Princeton | 49 | 2004-03-18 | Texas | 3 | 3 |
| Syracuse | 76 | Manhattan | 65 | 2003-03-21 | Syracuse | 3 | 3 |
| Xavier | 71 | Troy | 59 | 2003-03-21 | PUSH | 3 | |
| Marquette | 72 | Holy Cross | 68 | 2003-03-20 | Holy Cross | 3 | 14 |
| Duke | 67 | Colorado State | 57 | 2003-03-20 | Colorado State | 3 | 14 |
| Pittsburgh | 71 | Cent Conn State | 54 | 2002-03-15 | Pittsburgh | 3 | 3 |
| Mississippi State | 70 | McNeese State | 58 | 2002-03-15 | Mississippi State | 3 | 3 |
| Georgia | 85 | Murray State | 68 | 2002-03-15 | Georgia | 3 | 3 |
| Arizona | 86 | Santa Barbara | 81 | 2002-03-14 | Santa Barbara | 3 | 14 |
| Florida | 69 | Western Kentucky | 57 | 2001-03-16 | Florida | 3 | 3 |
| Mississippi | 72 | Iona | 70 | 2001-03-16 | Iona | 3 | 14 |
| Maryland | 83 | George Mason | 80 | 2001-03-15 | George Mason | 3 | 14 |
| Boston College | 68 | Southern Utah | 65 | 2001-03-15 | Southern Utah | 3 | 14 |
| Oklahoma State | 86 | Hofstra | 66 | 2000-03-17 | Oklahoma State | 3 | 3 |
| Ohio State | 87 | Appalachian State | 61 | 2000-03-17 | Ohio State | 3 | 3 |
| Maryland | 74 | Iona | 59 | 2000-03-16 | Maryland | 3 | 3 |
| Oklahoma | 74 | Winthrop | 50 | 2000-03-16 | Oklahoma | 3 | 3 |
| Kentucky | 82 | New Mexico State | 60 | 1999-03-12 | Kentucky | 3 | 3 |
| Cincinnati | 72 | George Mason | 48 | 1999-03-12 | Cincinnati | 3 | 3 |
| St. John’s | 69 | Samford | 43 | 1999-03-11 | St. John’s | 3 | 3 |
| North Carolina | 74 | Weber State | 76 | 1999-03-11 | Weber State | 14 | 14 |
| Michigan | 80 | Davidson | 61 | 1998-03-13 | Michigan | 3 | 3 |
| Stanford | 67 | College of Charleston | 57 | 1998-03-13 | College of Charleston | 3 | 14 |
| South Carolina | 61 | Richmond | 62 | 1998-03-12 | Richmond | 14 | 14 |
| Utah | 85 | San Francisco | 68 | 1998-03-12 | Utah | 3 | 3 |
| Wake Forest | 68 | Saint Mary’s | 46 | 1997-03-14 | Wake Forest | 3 | 3 |
| New Mexico | 59 | Old Dominion | 55 | 1997-03-14 | Old Dominion | 3 | 14 |
| Georgia | 70 | Chattanooga | 73 | 1997-03-14 | Chattanooga | 14 | 14 |
| Cincinnati | 86 | Butler | 69 | 1997-03-13 | Cincinnati | 3 | 3 |
| Texas Tech | 74 | Northern Illinois | 73 | 1996-03-15 | Northern Illinois | 3 | 14 |
| Villanova | 92 | Portland | 58 | 1996-03-15 | Villanova | 3 | 3 |
| Georgia Tech | 90 | Austin Peay | 79 | 1996-03-15 | Austin Peay | 3 | 14 |
| Arizona | 90 | Valparaiso | 51 | 1996-03-15 | Arizona | 3 | 3 |
March Madness 3 vs 14 Betting History FAQ
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When was the last time a 14 seed beat a 3 seed in March Madness?
No. 14 Abilene Christian beat No. 3 Texas 53-52 in 2021, the first time a 14 seed had beaten a 3 seed in March Madness since 2016. At least one lower seed has covered the spread in the 3 vs 14 first-round matchup in every NCAAB Tournament since 2008.