NFL

Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Chargers

Baltimore
Ravens
8 - 6
Los Angeles
Chargers
11 - 3
December 22, 2018, 8:20 PM EST
 | Dignity Health Sports Park

Game Preview

Baltimore
Ravens
8 - 6
Los Angeles
Chargers
11 - 3
December 22, 2018, 8:20 PM EST
 | Dignity Health Sports Park
  • Tied for the best record in the AFC, the Los Angeles Chargers return home on an emotional high after stunning the Chiefs and have the Baltimore Ravens on the docket in Week 16. The Chargers are 5-2 SU in seven games at home but have failed to cover in five of them, while the Ravens are running for their playoff lives and have won four of their last five games (3-2 ATS) with rookie QB Lamar Jackson taking the snaps.

    The Chargers opened as 6-point favorites (since moved to 4.5) with a total of 45 (since moved to 44.5).

    SHARK BITES
    • The Chargers are 2-5 ATS in 7 home games this season.
    • The Ravens are 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards per game (141.9).
    • The UNDER has hit in 4 of the Chargers’ last 5 games at home.

    Ravens vs Chargers Game Center

    Chargers’ Lack of Home-Field Advantage May Burn Spread Bettors Again

    To say the Chargers are much better on the road this season would be an understatement. They’ve won in Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Seattle and across the pond in London vs Tennessee and were underdogs in three of those games. So, you would think they should be easily handling teams at home, right?

    Well, that has not proven to be the case mainly because the Chargers have virtually no home-field advantage while they’re in flux awaiting a move to a new stadium in Carson City. Visiting fans use the StubHub Center as a means to catch their favorite team while they’re in town and while there are no stats to support this claim, ask anyone who has watched and/or attended a Chargers home game lately and they’ll likely agree. So, when you see that they’re 2-5 ATS in seven home games this year despite winning five of them, that usually tends to show that road teams can focus through the lax crowd and have a higher chance to get the backdoor cover on the Chargers.

    If the Chargers are to win and cover in this game, it will be because of their defense. Los Angeles ranks in the top 10 in rushing yards and passing yards allowed per game and its rush defense will be put to the ultimate test when facing Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, who is averaging five yards per carry and an insane 17.2 rushing attempts per game (more on him later).

    I know the Chargers are the sexy team to like in the AFC right now and they could very well win this game but two of their last three wins required incredible fourth-quarter comebacks and they almost let an awful Bengals team steal a victory (26-21 final) when LA was tabbed as a 16.5-point home favorite. Another trend that doesn’t sit well regarding the Chargers is they’re 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs East Coast teams. I wouldn’t necessarily use that trend as the sole reason for betting against them but there are warning signs for bettors thinking the Chargers roll to an easy victory.

    Ravens’ Current Rushing Attack is Unrivaled

    17.2 rushing attempts. According to ProFootballTalk, that is the highest average number of rushing attempts per game by a quarterback since 1970, with the highest mark at 10.1 attempts for a full season. What Lamar Jackson is doing is unprecedented and may not be good for his long-term health but for now, it’s winning football games and has helped push the Ravens to second in the NFL in rushing yards per game and fourth in rushing touchdowns. 

    Keeping Philip Rivers on the sideline and owning the time of possession will be crucial for Baltimore to have a chance to win this game because let’s face it, Jackson still has a long way to go as a pocket passer. The rookie QB is only completing 58.9 percent of his passes and has yet to top 200 yards passing in a game in his short career.

    The Ravens knew their quarterback play this season wouldn’t likely be the reason they’d win games and the defense has been the backbone of their success. Look at how the Ravens defense stacks up in some key categories this year:

    • 18.6 points allowed per game – ranked 1st
    • 202.6 passing yards allowed per game – ranked 3rd
    • 87.6 rushing yards allowed per game – ranked 3rd
    • 254 total first downs allowed – ranked 2nd
    • 34.2 percent on third downs – ranked 3rd
    • 3.8 yards per rushing attempt – ranked 4th
    • 6.2 passing yards per attempt – ranked 1st

    The defensive metrics are outstanding and this is why the Ravens have covered in all three of their road games this season when tabbed as an underdog. Two of those games they won outright vs the Steelers and Falcons and the one game they lost was to the Chiefs on an improbable fourth-down conversion by Patrick Mahomes. The more I read and write about the Ravens, the more I feel comfortable taking them to cover the spread and potentially win.

    Chargers ‘Home’ Games Leading to UNDERs Lately

    The total opened at 45 (since moved to 44.5) and when the Chargers take the field at StubHub Center, UNDERs tend to follow. The UNDER has hit in four of their last five games at home with an average combined score of 44.4 points per game. A razor-thin margin may make the total a stay-away for me but if the Ravens win this game, it will likely be because they didn’t allow Rivers and the Chargers offense to move the ball. For what it’s worth, the UNDER has also hit in 14 of the Chargers’ last 17 games in December.

    My Pick Is…

    To take the Ravens to cover the spread. I think outside of the three-point loss to the Chiefs, John Harbaugh has found a winning formula to keep games close and let the Ravens defense dictate the pace of the game. Unless Lamar Jackson gets hurt early in the game and they have to go back to Joe Flacco, I expect the Ravens to give the Chargers everything they can handle.

Odds

Saturday, December 22 Sat Dec 22


Opening
Current

Spread
Moneyline
O/U
Opening
+6
-115
+173
o45.5
-110
-6
-105
-208
u45.5
-110
Spread
Moneyline
O/U
Current
+4
-110
+185
o42.5
-107
-4
-110
-215
u42.5
-113

Edge Finder

20.39
Points Scored
23.39
180.50
Passing Yards
268.72
159.72
Rushing Yards
88.39
31:14
Time on Field
30:48
62.11
Number of Plays
67.94
5.48
Yards Per Play
5.26
20.39
Points Scored
23.39
3.67
First Quarter
3.94
7.11
Second Quarter
11.28
4.83
Third Quarter
2.89
4.78
Fourth Quarter
5.11
180.50
Passing Yards
268.72
28.72
Pass Attempts
41.89
17.61
Pass Completions
28.33
2.22
Sacks
2.33
9.94
Sack Yards
12.61
10.25
Yards Per Pass
9.48
159.72
Rushing Yards
88.39
31.17
Rush Attempts
23.72
5.12
Yards Per Rush
3.73
0.78
Interceptions
0.56
1.28
Fumbles
1.11
0.50
Fumbles Lost
0.50
1.28
Total Turnovers
1.06
4.78
Penalties
4.89
39.67
Penalty Yards
37.61
31:14
Time on Field
30:48
62.11
Number of Plays
67.94
5.48
Yards Per Play
5.26
3.33
Punts
4.33
46.01
Punt Average
43.46
59.39
Return Yards
61.28

Head To Head

BAL
Stat Type LAC
6-4
Record
4-6
5-5
ATS
5-5
5-5
O/U
5-5
21.40
Points Scored
20.50
95.70
Rush Yds
92.00
32.30
Pass Attempts
35.40
60.06
Completion %
61.30
190.40
Passing Yds
239.60
286.1
Total Yds
331.6
1.40
Turnovers
1.40
BAL
Stat Type LAC
2-1
Record
1-2
1-2
ATS
2-1
2-1
O/U
2-1
26.00
Points Scored
24.33
108.00
Rush Yds
78.67
39.67
Pass Attempts
39.33
62.18
Completion %
72.03
278.00
Passing Yds
285.00
386
Total Yds
363.67
0.00
Turnovers
0.67
Nov 1/15 (1 of 10)
BAL
Stat Type LAC
Home
Away
29
Points Scored
26
-4.5
ATS
+4.5
51 o
O/U
51 u
72
Rush Yds
81
37
Pass Attempts
37
67.57
Completion %
75.68
293
Passing Yds
290
365
Total Yds
371
0
Turnovers
0
Nov 30/14 (2 of 10)
BAL
Stat Type LAC
Home
Away
33
Points Scored
34
-6.5
ATS
+6.5
45.5 o
O/U
45.5 u
125
Rush Yds
64
31
Pass Attempts
45
61.29
Completion %
75.56
225
Passing Yds
376
350
Total Yds
440
0
Turnovers
2
Nov 25/12 (3 of 10)
BAL
Stat Type LAC
Away
Home
16
Points Scored
13
-1
ATS
+1
47 o
O/U
47 u
127
Rush Yds
91
51
Pass Attempts
36
58.82
Completion %
63.89
316
Passing Yds
189
443
Total Yds
280
0
Turnovers
0
Dec 18/11 (4 of 10)
BAL
Stat Type LAC
Away
Home
14
Points Scored
34
-1
ATS
+1
45 o
O/U
45 u
89
Rush Yds
145
35
Pass Attempts
23
68.57
Completion %
73.91
201
Passing Yds
270
290
Total Yds
415
2
Turnovers
0
Sep 20/09 (5 of 10)
BAL
Stat Type LAC
Away
Home
31
Points Scored
26
+1
ATS
-1
41 o
O/U
41 u
130
Rush Yds
53
27
Pass Attempts
45
66.67
Completion %
55.56
181
Passing Yds
421
311
Total Yds
474
1
Turnovers
2
Nov 25/07 (6 of 10)
BAL
Stat Type LAC
Away
Home
14
Points Scored
32
+9.5
ATS
-9.5
38.5 o
O/U
38.5 u
56
Rush Yds
83
33
Pass Attempts
35
63.64
Completion %
71.43
154
Passing Yds
249
210
Total Yds
332
2
Turnovers
0
Oct 1/06 (7 of 10)
BAL
Stat Type LAC
Home
Away
16
Points Scored
13
+1
ATS
-1
33.5 o
O/U
33.5 u
56
Rush Yds
150
30
Pass Attempts
23
56.67
Completion %
56.52
150
Passing Yds
134
206
Total Yds
284
3
Turnovers
1
Sep 21/03 (8 of 10)
BAL
Stat Type LAC
Away
Home
24
Points Scored
10
+1
ATS
-1
38.5 o
O/U
38.5 u
152
Rush Yds
132
21
Pass Attempts
45
57.14
Completion %
62.22
97
Passing Yds
257
249
Total Yds
389
1
Turnovers
3
Dec 10/00 (9 of 10)
BAL
Stat Type LAC
Home
Away
24
Points Scored
3
-15
ATS
+15
36 o
O/U
36 u
110
Rush Yds
64
24
Pass Attempts
23
66.67
Completion %
39.13
166
Passing Yds
64
276
Total Yds
128
3
Turnovers
5
Nov 15/98 (10 of 10)
BAL
Stat Type LAC
Away
Home
13
Points Scored
14
-0
ATS
0
32.5 o
O/U
32.5 u
40
Rush Yds
57
34
Pass Attempts
42
35.29
Completion %
35.71
121
Passing Yds
146
161
Total Yds
203
2
Turnovers
1

Team Records

BAL
Record LAC
8-6
All
11-3
5-2
Home
5-2
3-4
Away
6-1
7-7
ATS
8-6
3-4
ATS Home
2-5
4-3
ATS Away
6-1
6-8
O/U
8-6
3-4
O/U Home
3-4
3-4
O/U Away
5-2
BAL
Record LAC
6-4
All
8-2
4-1
Home
3-2
2-3
Away
5-0
6-4
ATS
6-4
3-2
ATS Home
1-4
3-2
ATS Away
5-0
5-5
O/U
5-5
3-2
O/U Home
1-4
2-3
O/U Away
4-1
BAL
Record LAC
2-3
All
3-2
1-1
Home
1-2
1-2
Away
2-0
1-4
ATS
3-2
0-2
ATS Home
1-2
1-2
ATS Away
2-0
0-0
O/U
0-0
0-0
O/U Home
0-0
0-0
O/U Away
0-0
BAL
Record LAC
5-5
All
9-1
3-2
Home
4-1
2-3
Away
5-0
4-6
ATS
7-3
1-4
ATS Home
2-3
3-2
ATS Away
5-0
4-6
O/U
4-6
2-3
O/U Home
1-4
2-3
O/U Away
3-2

Gametime Weather

Weather
5:00 pm EST Clear
17ºC / 62ºF
75% Humidity
5% Precipitation
9% Cloud Cover
Wind Impact Stadium Type Open
Field Image
Arrow Image 7
mph

Injuries

Name Position Inj Desc
No Injuries to Report
Name Position Inj Desc
No Injuries to Report

Last 10 Games

Date Opp Score SU Line/Total ATS OFF. RUSH OFF. PASS OFF. TOTAL DEF. RUSH DEF. PASS DEF. TOTAL TO
Dec 16, 2018TB20-12W-8.5/44.5L/U242128370851562411
Dec 9, 2018KC24-27L+6.5/48.5W/O198123321943474410
Dec 2, 2018ATL26-16W+2.5/47W/U20715936634971310
Nov 25, 2018OAK34-17W-13/42W/O242174416671822491
Nov 18, 2018CIN24-21W-6.5/44L/O265138403482072551
Nov 4, 2018PIT16-23L-1.5/47L/U612072681132823950
Oct 28, 2018CAR21-36L-2.5/44.5L/O1012243251542323863
Oct 21, 2018NO23-24L-2.5/49.5L/U77274351134205339-1
Oct 14, 2018TEN21-0W-2.5/43.5W/U12323836155511061
Oct 7, 2018CLE9-12L-3/44.5L/U1162944101123044161
View Game Logs
Date Opp Score SU Line/Total ATS OFF. RUSH OFF. PASS OFF. TOTAL DEF. RUSH DEF. PASS DEF. TOTAL TO
Dec 13, 2018KC29-28W+3.5/54.5W/O119288407602342942
Dec 9, 2018CIN26-21W-16.5/48.5L/U852032881441512950
Dec 2, 2018PIT33-30W+3/53.5W/O8528637165271336-1
Nov 25, 2018ARI45-10W-14/43W/O17823641462871490
Nov 18, 2018DEN22-23L-7/47L/U953844791082173252
Nov 11, 2018OAK20-6W-10/50.5W/U1132223351142033170
Nov 4, 2018SEA25-17W+1/48.5W/U160215375154202356-1
Oct 21, 2018TEN20-19W-6.5/46L/U47297344164226390-1
Oct 14, 2018CLE38-14W+1/47W/O246203449103214317-1
Oct 7, 2018OAK26-10W-5.5/51.5W/U7933341241248289-2
View Game Logs
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