It's time. The Stanley Cup is being polished, the series is locked in as the NHL playoffs begin.
Just like the players, our team is taking no days off either. Michel Anderson and I will be giving picks for every playoff game this season.
Read all of our picks or jump ahead to the game you're most interested in:
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Rolling Records
Michel: 19-12 (+1.47 Units)
Josie: 15-16 (-0.13 Units)
Game 5: Lightning vs Panthers
The Game: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida panthers, 7 PM ET
| Team | Puckline | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | +1.5 (-162) | O6.5 (-105) | +154 |
| Florida Panthers | -1.5 (+136) | U6.5 (-115) | -185 |
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers Series Preview
Michel's Take: This series is coming down to special teams. A total of 44% of all goals have been scored outside of 5on5. So I'm going to side with the team that's had the better special teams in this series, the Florida Panthers.
The Cats are effective 33.3% on the PP and 76.5% on the PK. That penalty kill number might sound low but it's higher than the Bolts' 66.7%. Special teams have defined the series so far, they'll put the nail in the coffin for Tampa.
Now consider that Florida hasn't lost at home since March 30th and it's clear this first-round match will end tonight with Panthers completing the gentleman's sweep.
Josie's Take: On the brink of elimination, Tampa Bay continues to fight for its life. But, now the Lightning have to return to Amerant Bank Arena, where the Panthers have won seven straight.
Florida has easily controlled this series, scoring 13 goals on an unusually shaky Vasilevskiy. The perfect storyline for advancing to the second round at home will be written.
Michel's Pick: Panthers ML (-185)
Josie's Pick: Panthers ML (-185)
Game 4: stars vs Golden Knights
The Game: Dallas Stars vs Vegas Golden Knights, 9:30 PM ET
| Team | Puckline | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Stars | -1.5 (+215) | O6 (+105) | -118 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | +1.5 (-265) | U6 (-125) | -102 |
Dallas Stars vs Vegas Golden Knights Series Preview
Michel's Take: Two of the three games in this series have been decided by a single goal even though Dallas has dominated the underlying numbers. The Knights are grinding it out and thanks to that talented LTIR core they're keeping it close.
Don't forget about goalie Logan Thompson's 0.927SV% and 2.14GAA in this series and the second-bet goals saved above expected (4.8) in the playoffs.
To me, all of that means this game will, just like Games 1 and 3, be close. I know a -265 line isn't profitable. It only yields $3.77 in profits on a $10 bet. It's marginal gains but stacking marginal gains is how to become profitable.
Josie's Take: The Stars may have shined in the regular season but we haven't seen too much of that success in the playoffs. Last outing's OT win in Vegas was crucial for Dallas. After looking terrible, Jake Oettinger finally got a grip by stopping 32 of 34 shots.
I don't know where to properly lean for this outcome. Vegas has been the better team but I'm not convinced Dallas' momentum will continue. Instead, if Oettinger is starting to play a bit better, then I'll safely take the UNDER.
Michel's Pick: Golden Knights +1.5 (-265)
Josie's Pick: UNDER 6 (-125)
