We’re just about a month into NHL free agency and just about every single big name unrestricted free agency has found a place to play for the 2022-23 NHL.
Claude Giroux returned home to Ottawa on a three-year $19.5 million deal ($6.5 million AAV). Jack Campbell opted to leave Toronto and join the Edmonton Oilers on a five-year $25 million deal ($5 million AAV). But the biggest, and frankly, most shocking development of the NHL free agency period was Johnny Gaudreau choosing Columbus.
The Blue Jackets landed Gaudreau with a seven-year $68.25 million deal ($9.75 million AAV). That’s less term and a smaller AAV than Calgary was offering him. The fact that the Blue Jackets didn’t have to massively overpay to get a star of Gaudreau’s caliber was quite eye-opening.
But even though a number of players have found new homes for 2022-23 there are still a few names out there that haven’t yet. Let’s look at where some of those big-name players could end up when the 2022-23 season starts in a few months.
NHL Free Agency Odds: Nazem Kadri Next Team
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| New York Islanders | -500 |
| Colorado Avalanche | +400 |
| Detroit Red Wings | +900 |
| Calgary Flames | +1400 |
| Minnesota Wild | +1400 |
| Anaheim Ducks | +1800 |
| Boston Bruins | +1800 |
| Washington Capitals | +2000 |
Odds as of August 11 from Sportsbook
We all know that Lou Lamoriello operates on his own schedule. Lou didn’t file contract paperwork with the league for free agents he signed last year until September. So if there’s a big-name free agent, like Nazem Kadri, still out there on the market, there’s a good chance that he’s signed with the Islanders.
The Islanders might be set down the middle with Mathew Barzal, Brock Nelson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Casey Cizikas but having the chance to add a point per game center like Kadri, who just won the Stanley Cup, is a chance Lou probably doesn’t pass up.
Don’t forget there’s history between Lou and Kadri. Lamoriello was Kadri’s GM in Toronto and loves the way Kadri plays the game.
The Islanders are the favorite here for a good reason. It’s unlikely he plays game 1 of the 2022-23 season with anyone else but the Islanders.
NHL Free Agency Odds: Phil Kessel Next Team
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Edmonton Oilers | -200 |
| Arizona Coyotes | +220 |
| Minnesota Wild | +700 |
| Calgary Flames | +700 |
| Winnipeg Jets | +950 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | +1100 |
Odds as of August 11 from Sportsbook
It's hard to think that the Edmonton Oilers want to add even more offense to their team. The Oilers had the fifth-best offense last year. Because that’s all they’re getting with Phil Kessel. The now 35-year-old is an offense-first player who adds very little in the way of defense. Players who play a better defensive game is the priority for Edmonton.
The Minnesota Wild however presents an interesting option. This is a team that finished seventh in goals-for last season but did recently lose Kevin Fiala and his 33 goals last year. Now, of course, Kessel isn’t about to step into the Wild lineup and score 33 goals. He hasn’t scored 30+ since 2017-18. But Kessel could add some really good depth offense on a really cheap contract. That last part is very important to the cap-strapped Wild.
NHL Free Agency Odds: P.K. Subban Next Team
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Edmonton Oilers | -160 |
| Nashville Predators | +225 |
| New Jersey Devils | +350 |
| Montreal Canadiens | +650 |
| Buffalo Sabres | +1200 |
| Dallas Stars | +1200 |
Odds as of August 11 from Sportsbook
I don’t get the link to the Oilers. Edmonton has Tyson Barrie, Cody Ceci and Evan Bouchard to play on the right side. Subban isn’t about to step into this squad and push any of these players out.
It's hard to see a reunion with the Predators or Devils who are both looking to take the next step towards a Stanley Cup championship, and while bringing in Subban doesn’t hurt their chances, bringing him in doesn't move the needle forward either.
At the right price, a reunion with Montreal might work. Management that moved him to Nashville, and upset a large portion of the fan base, is no longer there. The Canadiens aren’t in complete now mode and could use a bottom pair right-hander making close to the league minimum.
NHL Free Agency Odds: Paul Stastny Next Team
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Colorado Avalanche | -150 |
| Calgary Flames | +300 |
| Winnipeg Jets | +325 |
| Anaheim Ducks | +450 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | +650 |
Odds as of August 11 from Sportsbook
It really seems like Nazem Kadri will be leaving the Colorado Avalanche. That creates a gap down the middle for the reigning Stanley Cup Champions. Paul Stastny is no longer a second-line center at the NHL level, but he could fill in on line three for the Avs.
Last season, Stastny put up 21 goals and 45 points in 71 games a pace of 52 points over a full 82-game season. Stastny might be 35 but he can still offer somethign at the NHL level.
A return to his former club to help them push for back-to-back cups makes sense. I’d stick with the chalk here. A $100 winning bet on Stastny returning to Colorado for 2022-23 would return a $66.67 prize.
