Like most sports, the best time to bet on OVER/UNDER NHL win totals is right before the season starts.
With the NHL underway in just a couple of weeks, there is plenty of value to be had when looking at NHL win totals over at Bovada.
After a disappointing end to their 2020-21 season, the Colorado Avalanche have the highest NHL win total in the league at 51.5. Following the Avs are the defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning (50), Toronto Maple Leafs (49), Vegas Golden Knights (49) and Boston Bruins (47.5) to round out the top five.
Let’s take a look at some of the teams we think will win either more or fewer games than their projected total for the 2021-22 season.
NHL Win Totals
|Team||Total||2021 Wins (56-game season)|
|Tampa Bay Lightning||50||36|
|Toronto Maple Leafs||49||35|
|Vegas Golden Knights||49||40|
|New York Islanders||45.5||32|
|New York Rangers||44.5||27|
|St. Louis Blues||41.5||27|
|New Jersey Devils||40.5||19|
|Los Angeles Kings||37||21|
|San Jose Sharks||37||21|
|Detroit Red Wings||35||19|
|Columbus Blue Jackets||33.5||18|
Odds as of September 27 at Bovada
NHL Win Totals – Best Bets
Boston Bruins UNDER 47.5 wins
The Boston Bruins finished third in the East Division last season with 33 wins in 56 games – the equivalent to a 48.3-win season, pretty much right on par with where oddsmakers see the Bruins finishing again this year.
Except we think the Bruins are going to take a step back. They did re-sign winger Taylor Hall and bring forward Nick Foligno into the fold, but they lost the ultra-reliable (and underrated) David Krejci along with steady backup goalie Jaroslav Halak.
This is an aging roster with some questions in net (how good will Tuukka Rask be? Can he stay healthy?), and we see the team being the clear No. 4 in the best division in hockey.
They should still push for a playoff spot, but the fifth-best team in NHL win totals at 47.5 is too high.
Vegas Golden Knights OVER 49 wins
It’s a bit risky picking one of the clear top teams to exceed the lofty number oddsmakers have already set, but if we dig a little deeper into the Knights and their situation in the NHL, we can find some room for growth in that number.
First of all, the Pacific Division is terrible. It did lose the likely league-worst Coyotes and add the expansion Kraken (who look to be decent on paper), but the Ducks, Sharks, Canucks and Kings could all easily be in the bottom half of the league or worse. The Oilers and Flames aren’t world-beaters either.
So we’re predicting the Knights clean up within their division and carry over their dominance from last season. Vegas’s 40 wins in 56 games last season is equivalent to a dominant 58.5 wins in 82 games. They don’t have to be THAT good to beat this number easily.
The Knights did lose Vezina Trophy winner Marc-Andre Fleury, but we’re betting that Robin Lehner in a full-time role should be more than fine to hold the fort (or castle?).
Best Bet: Carolina Hurricanes OVER 43.5 wins
The Carolina Hurricanes were simply one of the best teams in the NHL last season. The Canes finished third overall in the NHL, and although they are moving back into the more difficult Metropolitan Division, their division was not a cakewalk last year playing Florida and Tampa Bay 16 times.
The Canes did lose star defenseman Dougie Hamilton to free agency and replaced all three of the goalies who started for them last season. But they also added Ethan Bear and Tony DeAngelo on the back end, with Jesperi Kotkaniemi bolstering their depth up front.
The new goalie tandem of Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta shouldn’t be a big drop-off from Petr Mrazek and Alex Nedeljkovic, either.
Carolina’s 36 wins in 56 games last season extrapolates to a 52.7-win season. Even if we think that number is a bit lofty, 43.5 appears to be a screaming value. This list has the Hurricanes tied with the Capitals with the fourth-most wins in the Metro behind the Islanders, Rangers and Penguins. They could – and arguably SHOULD – be better than all three of those teams.
Buy, buy, buy.
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Odds Shark Staff Mon, Aug 8, 11:58am