Are you ready for the 2022-23 NHL season? Because it’s here. The NHL is back and that means it’s time to look at how teams are expected to perform this season and see where some money can be made. Let’s take a look at point projections and single out a few teams we think will go OVER or UNDER.
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Online sportsbook Sportsbook has listed the Colorado Avalanche as the early OVER/UNDER points totals leader at 110.5. The Toronto Maple Leafs find themselves second with a total at 108.5 and the Florida Panthers are third at 105.5.
The bottom teams are the cast of characters you’d expect with Arizona the lowest at 65.5, followed by Chicago at 68.5 and Philadelphia and Montreal both at 73.5.
NHL Points Totals: Overachievers
Here are two teams you should expect to hit the OVER on the points total line listed prior to puck drop.
Los Angeles Kings OVER 95.5 Points (-115)
Last season, the Los Angeles Kings picked up 99 points, which was a surprise. No one thought they would do that at the start of the year, but they still did it.
And they only got stronger in the offseason.
If the Kings had a clear weakness, it was in the goal-scoring department. They finished in the bottom half of the NHL with 239 goals. So, in the offseason, they sent an A-level prospect and a first-round pick to Minnesota for Kevin Fiala, who had 33 goals and 85 points last season. And that production came primarily playing on a third line with the likes of Freddy Gaudreau.
Now Fiala joins the Kings roster and will slide onto the top line alongside Anze Kopitar and winger Viktor Arvidsson.
Again, the Kings picked up 99 points last season. So to think they will earn fewer points in a weak division while improving significantly is wild. The Kings will hit the OVER here.
Buffalo Sabres OVER 77.5 Points (-115)
The Buffalo Sabres won’t be a playoff team this year. This is a young squad that still has a lot to learn. In 2021-22, the Sabres put up 75 points with a 32-39-11 record. Can they be better in 2022-23? Absolutely.
Over the final two months of the ’21-22 season, the Sabres went 16-9-3, representing a 0.625 points percentage. Sustaining that could push them into the playoffs, given that only 12 teams ended the ’21-22 season with a points percentage above 0.625.
I don’t think Buffalo can sustain that points percentage over a full NHL season, but the point here is that the Sabres were much better than their record suggests. With the emergence of Owen Power on the blue line and Tage Thompson up front, the Sabres should have no problem exceeding that 77.5 total.
NHL Points Totals: Hit The UNDER
We’ve gone over a few teams that should perform better than expected. Now what are some examples of some that might do worse than expected?
Boston Bruins UNDER 96.5 Points (EVEN)
An injury is never the reason a team falters, but multiple injuries can be. Going into the ’22-23 season, Boston’s injury list is already vast with a number of top-end players being out for a while.
That’s a lot of game time missed by some big-name players for the Bruins right out of the gate.
Marchand had a hand in nearly a third (31.4%) of all Bruins goals in ’21-22 while McAvoy had his hand in 22 percent of them. The role they play in helping Boston generate scoring opportunities is clearly high. What’s also clear is that without them, the Bruins offense is significantly neutered.
Expect them to slip this year and likely finish below the 96.5 points line set here by oddsmakers.
Arizona Coyotes UNDER 65.5 (-130)
One NHL analyst put it best when talking about the Arizona Coyotes: “The worst collection of talent my model has ever seen.” Outside of Clayton Keller and Jakob Chychrun, there’s very little talent on this Coyotes squad.
Both Keller and Chychrun are injured and out day to day. So whatever talent the Coyotes have is out (temporarily). The Coyotes were the second-worst team in the NHL last season with 57 points in 82 games. And that was with Keller and Chychrun for significant portions of it.
It’s hard to see them being any worse than they were last year, but they certainly won’t be better. They will fall below that 65.5-point line. No question about it.
2022-23 NHL Regular-Season Point Projections
|Team||2021-22 Season Points||2022-23 Projected Points||OVER||UNDER|
|Columbus Blue Jackets||81||80.5||-115||-115|
|Detroit Red Wings||74||84.5||-115||-115|
|Los Angeles Kings||99||95.5||-115||-115|
|New Jersey Devils||63||90.5||EVEN||-130|
|New York Islanders||84||91.5||-115||-115|
|New York Rangers||110||99.5||-120||-110|
|San Jose Sharks||77||N/A||N/A||N/A|
|St. Louis Blues||109||94.5||-130||EVEN|
|Tampa Bay Lightning||110||103.5||-115||-115|
|Toronto Maple Leafs||115||108.5||-115||-115|
|Vegas Golden Knights||94||96.5||EVEN||-130|
Odds as of October 10 at Sportsbook
NHL Points Totals
Who lead the NHL in points in 2021-22?
The Florida Panthers were the top team in the NHL for points with 122 points on a 58-18-6 record.
Who is projected to lead the NHL in points for 22-23?
The Colorado Avalanche are projected to lead the NHL in points for the 2022-23 season with the line at 110.5.
Who's lead the NHL in points over the last 10 seasons?
Here are the points leaders in the NHL since the 2012-13 season:
2012-13: Chicago Blackhawks (77)*
2013-14: Boston Bruins (117)
2014-15: New York Rangers (113)
2015-16: Washington Capitals (120)
2016-17: Washington Capitals (118)
2017-18: Nashville Predators (117)
2018-19: Tampa Bay Lightning (128)
2019-20: Boston Bruins (100)
2020-21: Colorado Avalanche (82)**
2021-22: Florida Panthers (122)
*The lockout cut the NHL season to 48 games in 12-13.
**COVID-19 cut the NHL seasno to 56 games in 20-21.