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Can surging Leafs get redemption from last year?

It used to be a foregone conclusion that Washington dominates at Verizon Center. The Capitals finished last year with the best home record at 32-7-2 and took home their third Presidents’ Trophy. But this year, they’ve already lost twice at home and are coming off an ugly 8-2 loss to Philadelphia on Saturday. Now they welcome a hungry Toronto team looking for some payback after being ousted in the first round by the Caps in last year’s playoffs.

  • Alex Ovechkin leads the league with 9 goals.
  • Washington is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto.
  • Toronto is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road.

To get some great value, consider the Leafs puckline hovering at +250. Toronto is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games and is one of the hottest teams in the league with a 4-1-0 record. I’m usually the loudest to bemoan a hot start for Toronto. We’ve all seen this movie before and the Leafs typically go down the toilet. The eye test shows this isn’t the case so far.

All the trends are pointing in the wrong direction for backers of the Capitals in this game. They’re 2-8 ATS in their last 10 at home and 3-2-1 SU on the season.

Casual fans of the NHL should enjoy this one as I expect a lot of scoring. The total may be at six goals but it could be way higher. The OVER has hit in five of Washington’s six games this season while the OVER has come through for every Leafs game this season. 

The only saving grace for fans of the Caps is they know how to hold a lead. Their record last season was 41-1-1 while leading after two frames. However, if the kids in blue get on the board first, it’s a great chance for a moneyline upset.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

If you're backing the visiting Toronto Maple Leafs in this one, the Maple Leafs listed earlier today as underdogs of +124 at most sportsbooks, including Bovada. Those OVER/UNDER total betting saw the number open in the area of 5.5, depending on the book.

Prediction-scoring formulas run on this game pick a potential 3-2.9 result in favor of the Capitals. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NHL matchups here.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Washington Capitals Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

The Capitals sit at 3-2-1 on the season; in comparison, the Toronto Maple Leafs are currently 4-1-0. Looking to wager on the totals? Washington is 5-1 OU, and Toronto is 5-0 OU. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Washington vs Toronto injuries news.

According to new NHL Power Rankings here at OddsShark, it's the No. 1-ranked Washington Capitals and the No. 3-rated Toronto Maple Leafs in this matchup.

Statistical Matchup

Offensively, the game matches up the Washington Capitals' No. 7-ranked offense (3.83 goals per game) against a Toronto Maple Leafs defense that ranks No. 27 at 3.8 goals per game allowed. The Capitals power play has clicked at a 31.58% rate while the Maple Leafs have a 79.17% rate on the penalty kill.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

Toronto won its last outing, a 4-3 result against the Canadiens on October 14. Bettors who backed the Maple Leafs at +102 on the moneyline won on the day, and the total score (7) sent OVER bettors to the payout window.

Washington was an 8-2 loser in its last match on the road against the Flyers. They lost as +105 underdogs, while the total score of 10 made winners of OVER bettors.

Betting Trends
  • Toronto is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
  • Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games
  • Toronto is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
  • Washington is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 games
  • Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games
  • Washington is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

Toronto home to Detroit, Wednesday, October 18
Washington at Detroit, Friday, October 20