With 797 goals in 1,304 games, Alex Ovechkin is the third-most prolific goal scorer in the history of the NHL. Only Wayne Gretzky and Gordie Howe have more goals than the Great 8 with 894 and 801, respectively.
What we’re interested in is whether Ovie can surpass the Great One by the time his career comes to an end. To do so, Ovechkin needs to score 98 more goals.
Can he actually do it? And, more importantly from a betting perspective, how can we profit from his attempt to do so?
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Can Alex Ovechkin Pass Wayne Gretzky’s Goal Record?
We have to start with Alex Ovechkin’s pace. Prior to this season, Ovechkin had been scoring at a pace of 0.61 goals per game. That’s 50 goals per season over his career.
At some point, we were going to see a drop-off in Ovechkin being a perennial 50-goal scorer. And that’s what we’re seeing this season. Sorta.
With a pair of empty netters tonight, Alexander Ovechkin is now within double-digits of Wayne Gretzky's all-time goals record.— Tim and Friends (@timandfriends) December 8, 2022
99 goals from matching the Great One's 894. pic.twitter.com/2P3ZPB6HRh
Ovechkin has scored 17 goals in 30 games this season. That’s 0.57 goals per game, a pace that over the full season would give Ovie 47 goals by the end of the year. And at 37 years of age, we have to focus on that pace. It doesn’t matter what type of pace he was on when he scored the 780 goals he piled up prior to this season.
What we care about is the pace he’s on now. At 0.57 goals per game, how long will it take for Ovechkin to catch up to and pass Gretzky?
At that rate, Ovechkin will pass Gretzky in 174 more games. That would represent 1.5 seasons after the end of this one, assuming of course that he keeps up his current pace.
Ovechkin creeping ever closer to Wayne Gretzky’s career goals mark, one of the most ungettable records in sports (via @ovichase)…https://t.co/fRnjf3cXOs pic.twitter.com/rYGsha3aDg— Dave Mark (@davemark) December 10, 2022
How Do We Profit From Alex Ovechkin?
Will Alex Ovechkin Score Tonight?
For a guy who scores as often as Alex Ovechkin does, you’d think his anytime goal odds would be quite short. Again, Ovechkin has scored at a pace of 0.61 goals per game in his career and at 0.57 this year. But in Ovechkin’s last game, his anytime goal odds were +120 – odds he hit, by the way. That’s a $120 profit on a $100 bet.
Since December 7, Ovechkin has hit the anytime goal prop three times, yielding $315 in profits or +3 units.
Tonight against the Blackhawks, Ovechkin’s anytime goal odds are at +100 according to sportsbook Sportsbook. You can make $100 in profit on a $100 bet if he pops one, something he’s done 11 times in 21 career games against Chicago.
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Another interesting bet to make in relation to Alex Ovechkin’s goal-scoring quest is his shot total prop. Tonight against the Blackhawks, his OVER/UNDER line for total shots is at 3.5
Odds as of December 13 at Sportsbook
For a guy to score that many goals, you know he’s getting shots on the net. You’ve got to shoot to score, right? Not to mention that Ovie is one of the best volume shooters in the NHL. Since 2005-06, he’s put up 6,190 shots on goal, an astounding 2,389 shots more than the next-best player on the list.
Over his career, the Great 8 has averaged 4.8 shots per game. In the 2022-23 season, he’s averaging 4.3 shots. A line of -150 doesn’t sound great but it’s still going to generate $66.67 in profit on a $100 bet.
We know that Chicago is the worst defensive side since November 19 (their last 10 games) in terms of goals allowed with 4.20 per game but they’ve also allowed 34.4 shots per game, the fourth-most in the NHL.
If you parlay that with the anytime goal odds I mentioned earlier, you’d get +333 odds according to our parlay calculator, which would generate a $333 payout on a $100 bet.