With 868 career goals, Ovechkin only needs 27 more to pass Wayne Gretzky's record of 894 and cement himself as the greatest scorer of all time, a record he'd already have if not for two lockouts and two COVID-shortened seasons.
A year ago I believed Ovechkin was cooked after eight goals in 43 games saying he'd never break the Great One's record, Ovi obviously saw my video and took it personally because he scored in six straight games after it went up. Ovechkin ended that year with 31 goals, meaning Gretzky's record was no longer safe (nor was my face from humble pies).
The question is no longer if Ovechkin will pass Gretzky's record but when?
When Will Ovechkin Break Gretzky's Record
When the 24-25 seasons began Ovechkin needed 42 goals to pass Gretzky, books did believe he'd get to 40 placing his goal total on the season at 29.5 with -110 odds either way. So the likelihood of Ovechkin getting the record this year wasn't as guaranteed as it is now.
| OVER | UNDER |
|---|---|
| 29.5 (-110) | 29.5 (-110) |
Odds as of August 16
However, with 15 goals through 18 games, Ovi is on pace for 68 goals a career high for the Great 8. With that type of pace, Ovechkin will comfortably break the record this season. Or at least he would have.
That was until an awkward collision with Jake McBain put Ovechkin on the injured list for four to six weeks. That injury keeps him out of the lineup until the New Year and missing nearly 20 games.
If Ovi comes back when he's supposed to in six weeks he'll still have plenty of season left with 45 games yet to play on the year. Assuming he comes back in the same form he was in before the injury scoring 0.83 goals per game the math says Ovi will break Gretzky's record on March 22 at home against the Florida Panthers.
That injury was only 18 days ago and Ovi is already out on the ice for skating work, a big step towards a return before that initial six-week time frame and even more game time to break the record this year.
Alex Ovechkin broke his leg 17 days ago. Alex Ovechkin today:
— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) December 5, 2024
(via @Capitals) pic.twitter.com/VQG9qmhOri
Alex Ovechkin Shot Prop Profits
When Ovechkin returns he'll do everything he can to pick up where he left off in the chase for the record. That starts with tossing a ton of shots on goal.
Ovechkin had gone OVER 3.5 shots in seven of his last nine games and could have made it eight for nine if he finished the game against Utah. So watch for Ovie's shot prop when he returns and smash the OVER on any line that's at 3.5 shots or lower.
