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AAF Week 7 Betting Preview and Picks

Dontez Ford #12 of the San Diego Fleet comes onto the field before an Alliance of American Football game against the Birmingham Iron at SDCCU Stadium on March 17, 2019 in San Diego, California.

The Alliance of American Football is about to get a lot more interesting.

Last weekend it was announced that Johnny Manziel had signed a player agreement with the AAF, and soon after he found a home with the last-place Memphis Express. Upon clearing the league’s background check, Manziel’s rights were released by the San Antonio Commanders. The former Texas A&M star was immediately claimed by the Express, where he’ll finish out the 2019 regular season.

At 1-5 SU, Memphis’ postseason hopes are extremely bleak, but it’s going to be interesting to see how “Johnny Football” fares in his new surroundings.

Around the league, road teams went 3-1 ATS for the third week in a row in Week 6. On the season, home squads are now 11-13 ATS and 13-11 SU. Favorites are 16-8 SU and 12-12 ATS. Two of the four games last week went OVER to push the O/U to 10-14 on the year.

Looking for AAF championship odds? We have you covered. Here’s a breakdown of the Week 7 AAF slate:

Orlando Apollos vs Atlanta Legends (+8.5, 42)

These teams met back in Week 2 when Orlando rolled to a 40-6 victory, and while Atlanta has improved since then, it’s hard to see this one being competitive. The Apollos are coming off their first loss of the season in a 22-17 setback to the Arizona Hotshots, yet they still reign supreme in the East Division at 5-1 SU.

The Legends got trounced 37-6 at home last week by San Antonio in what was a major blowup game by quarterback Aaron Murray. Despite getting yanked in favor of Peter Pujals, Murray should be back under center this weekend. Atlanta’s defense has allowed 20 or more points in five of its six games this season, so expect this one to be a high-scoring affair.

The pick: OVER 42 points

Salt Lake Stallions vs San Antonio Commanders (-5.5, 40.5)

This is San Antonio’s first home game since the second week of the season, but the Commanders have turned into road warriors despite the extended absence from the Lone Star State. They’ve rattled off three straight wins and have scored a combined 68 points in their past two contests. After hammering Atlanta last week, San Antonio occupies the top spot in the West Division at 4-2 SU.

Salt Lake is on the opposite side of the fence, as the Stallions have yet to win a road game this season. The Stallions are better than their 2-4 SU record looks but it’s hard to project them finally winning away from home against the red-hot Commanders in the Alamo Dome.

The pick: Commanders -5.5

San Diego Fleet vs Arizona Hotshots (-3.5, 40)

In the first-ever matchup between these teams, the stakes couldn’t be higher for the Fleet and Hotshots right now. With both clubs tied for the second and final playoff spot in the West, the winner of this game could find itself in the playoffs, with the loser watching from home after the 10-week season concludes.

Arizona has been the definition of inconsistency, as the Hotshots have rotated weeks of looking like one of the best teams in the league and one of the worst. San Diego is winless on the road in 2019, so this is a huge game for the Fleet to prove that they’re able to win away from home.

The pick: Fleet +3.5

Birmingham Iron vs Memphis Express (+3, 36.5)

Birmingham blanked Memphis 26-0 in the season opener, and things haven’t gotten much better for the Express since. While Manziel is available off the bench in this one, Brandon Silvers is expected to get the start. Silvers wasn’t anything special in relief of injured signal-caller Zach Mettenberger last week, going 23 of 37 for 242 yards, a touchdown and a fumble.

The Iron’s vaunted defense is primed for yet another strong performance against the slumping Express, and while the Express may not put up another goose egg on the scoreboard, I expect this game to stay UNDER the total from start to finish.

The pick: UNDER 36.5 points