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Spanish La Liga Odds, Top Goalscorers & Relegation Props

Atletico Madrid headline odds to win the 2020-21 La Liga.

Close to three-quarters of the La Liga season has been completed. The favorites are separating themselves from the underdogs but there are still plenty of betting opportunities and markets to look forward to in the Spanish league. We take a look at a few of those along with our suggestions for these markets.

At Bovada, Atletico Madrid (-125) is a heavy betting favorite to win the 2020-21 La Liga title. Next on the list of odds to win the Spanish league is Barcelona (+150), Real Madrid (+500), Sevilla (+10000) and Real Sociedad (+100000).

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For more information on how to wager on soccer, check out our How to Bet on Soccer page. Want more news and analysis on La Liga? Head to our dedicated La Liga page.

Who Are The Favorites In La Liga Betting Odds?

2020-21 La Liga Odds
Atletico Madrid-125
Real Madrid+500
Real Sociedad+100000
Real Betis+200000
Granada CF+450000

Odds as of April 1 at Bovada

Who are the Favorites to Win the 2020-21 La Liga title?

At this point of the season, all teams have played 28 games, with 10 to go. Here’s how the standings look:

  1. Atletico Madrid: 66 points
  2. Barcelona: 62 points
  3. Real Madrid: 60 points
  4. Sevilla: 55 points

There is no other team in the reckoning, really. You may as well pick a charity of your choice instead of backing Real Sociedad (+100000) and below.

Atletico Madrid (-125) has been the best defensive team in the La Liga by a distance. It has conceded just 18 goals, comfortably the fewest in the Spanish league. Offensively, Atletico has scored 51 goals, second-most in La Liga this season. Out of 28, Atletico has lost just two games, also the fewest in the league.

Much of this efficiency, particularly offensively, has been led by Luis Suarez (19 goals, 2 assists), Marcos Llorente (9 goals, 8 assists) and Joao Felix (7 goals, 4 assists). With a handy lead of four points and some tricky matches out of the way, Atletico’s implied probability to win is at 55.55 percent. That means it’s more likely that Atletico wins this market than any other team in the league.

Can Barcelona Still Stake a Claim for the Title? 

I prefer mathematical models to historical databases when making betting predictions because of how quickly sports are changing. During a pandemic, injuries have become not just frequent but ubiquitous. In such a scenario, the math always supports the underdogs because of the perceived payout, making lower probabilities highly compelling.

The probability for Barcelona (+150) to win the La Liga is currently at 40 percent. That number has gone up drastically after five straight wins in the league. Mathematically, one win for Barcelona coinciding with dropped points from Atletico will potentially swap those probability percentages.

Across a period of 10 matches, the chance of that happening is not low. After missing out on the title last season as well, Barcelona will be keen to make La Liga count after it was eliminated from the Champions League by PSG in the Round of 16. Barcelona to win La Liga would be my preferred punt at this stage of the season.

Left-field picks to win La Liga

This is atypical to write because Real Madrid wouldn’t usually make this category. Injuries and roster fluidity have resulted in the team not performing to its potential in La Liga. There are also two legs in the quarterfinals of the Champions League to play for, which might further distance Real Madrid from the Spanish title.

Who Will be the Top Scorer in La Liga?

Lionel Messi (-1100) is heavily favored for two main reasons. Firstly, he is leading La Liga in goals scored with 23, four ahead of Luis Suarez (+650). Even for a striker as skilled as Suarez, making up four goals on one of the best players in the world seems an unenviable proposition.

Secondly, Barcelona plays its soccer at a quicker pace. It is leading La Liga in goals scored (67 goals in 24 games at a rate of 2.79 per match). Atletico’s transition into an offensive phase is much slower, reducing the volume of attempts on goal. Karim Benzema, with 17 goals, is even more unlikely to challenge. For those reasons, I’d be betting on Messi. Not a bad player to back with your money.

2020-21 La Liga Top Goalscorer Odds
Lionel Messi-1100
Luis Suarez+650
Karim Benzema+3500
Gerard Moreno+10000
Youssef En-Nesyri+10000
Alexander Isak+17500

Odds as of April 1 at Bovada

Who Will Finish in the Top Four?

This late in the season, margins start to open up substantially. That’s the reason you see markets like this one skewed so heavily. There is a 10-point difference between fourth-placed Sevilla (-1400) and Real Sociedad (+800). If there was a slightly more volatile team than Sevilla positioned fourth, Real Sociedad might seem tempting. However, Sevilla has been one of the most consistent teams in La Liga.

Sevilla has conceded just 21 goals, the second-fewest in the league behind Atletico Madrid. It is hard to break down defensively because of its concerted style of play. A team’s probability of losing a match is directly proportional to the likelihood of conceding goals. Sevilla is unlikely to concede too many and therefore is unlikely to lose many games.

2020-21 La Liga Odds to Finish Top Four
Real Sociedad+800
Real Betis+3300

Odds as of April 1 at Bovada

Who Will be Relegated From La Liga?

There are several teams bundled close together at the bottom of La Liga. For the sake of this market, let’s assume each team manages an average of one point per game, which is well above their season averages so far.

Huesca (-300) is at the bottom of the table with 21 points. It has won an appallingly low three games out of 28 this season. Even by surpassing their season average of 0.75 by a factor of 25 percent, Huesca will finish with a maximum of 31 points.

Eibar (-300) and Alaves (-160) are currently 18th and 19th respectively in La Liga, with 23 points each. Neither team has a win in its last five matches in La Liga. Using our thumb rule, Eibar and Alaves can likely accumulate a maximum of 33 points.

Elche (-200) has managed two more vital points, which puts them just outside the relegation zone at the 17th spot. Mathematically, Elche is in a better position than Alaves. The odds are better for Elche because Alaves has underachieved till this point of the season. Those performances might not last for the entirety of the season.

Here’s where our thumb rule comes into play. Valladolid (+200) has 27 points in 28 matches. Even if it plays well below its season average, it will still likely finish with 35 points, which is more than the forecasted maximum for Eibar and Alaves. Even though the odds are good at +200, it might therefore not make sense to back Valladolid to get relegated. These odds are likely to increase after this weekend’s away fixture against Barcelona but hold your nerve.

It’s also important to use your own strategy in such predictions. Here’s my strategy. I’d back Huesca, Alaves and Eibar for relegation. Huesca because it’s too far from the mean point required. Eibar because it lacks offensive firepower to score the required goals. And Alaves because of a powerful combination of the higher payout and point disadvantage over Elche.

2020-21 La Liga Odds to be relegated
Cadiz CF+500

Odds as of April 1 at Bovada

We’ll soon return with updated odds and a new article after a few weeks to support your La Liga betting predictions. Stay tuned and back your instinct.

How to Read La Liga Odds

When you check out any soccer sportsbook, you’ll see odds laid out like so:

Barcelona +110

Real Madrid +120

In a traditional bet, you’d see the front-runner represented by the minus sign. However, in this case, the favorite is the team with the lowest odds and the rest are considered underdogs. Barcelona would be the fave here at +110.

Let’s say you’re looking at Real Madrid and believe they’ve got what it takes to win it all. If you were to bet $100 on them, you’d get a payout of $220 – your original bet of $100 is returned along with your winnings of $120.

Our Odds Calculator will show you how much you’d win based on the offered odds and amount wagered.

What is a La Liga Futures Bet?

Any bet that you make on an event that will happen in time is a futures bet. Now you’re probably saying, “But all bets are made before a game.” This is true; however, futures odds are released weeks or even months in advance.

When oddsmakers create the lines, they are not permanent and will shift as more games are played. If you see odds you like, it’s best to take them as soon as you can before the odds move so much they lose all value.