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La Liga Title Odds: Value In Atletico Madrid After Griezmann Move

Atletico Madrid could win La Liga after Griezmann Move

The three powerhouses of Spanish soccer – Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid – have all started the season in identical fashion: two wins and one draw in their first three matches. How has that impacted the early movement of the La Liga title odds? Here is Odds Shark’s update after three gameweeks in the Spanish soccer league.

According to BetOnline Sportsbook’s La Liga title odds, Real Madrid are favorites with odds of +110, followed closely by Barcelona (+250) and defending champion Atletico Madrid (+325).

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For more information on how to wager on soccer, check out our How to Bet on Soccer page. Want more news and analysis on La Liga? Head to our dedicated La Liga page.

Who Are The Betting Favorites In 2021-22 La Liga Odds?

Odds to Win La Liga 
Real Madrid+110
Atletico Madrid+325
Real Sociedad+6600
Athletic Bilbao+15000
Real Betis+15000
Celta Vigo+20000
CD Alaves+50000

Odds as of September 8 at BetOnline Sportsbook

Best Bets To Win La Liga This Season

No team has started perfectly in the first three matches in the La Liga. With no obvious advantage, in terms of points, the list of favorites continues to be dominated by the powerhouses.

Real Madrid (+110)

Real Madrid put in a typically staunch defensive performance against Real Betis to post their second win of the season. They now have seven points in three matches and are temporarily at the top of the La Liga standings. It was a performance that will typify how Real Madrid approach the La Liga: slow, methodical and concerted as opposed to the belligerent style of some European counterparts.

“We’d been scoring a lot of goals in the last two games but conceded a lot too so it was important to give a balanced performance before the international break,” Dani Carvajal said. “We began the game really well, then struggled to play together. We showed more intensity after the break and tried to push them higher up the pitch.”

Real Madrid had just three shots on target in that match, with a possession rate of 49 percent. They had a total of 13 shots as opposed to Real Betis’ 12 shots, with six on target. That is likely the way forward for Real Madrid. Their La Liga title odds have shortened a bit, moving from +150 last month to +110 currently.

Barcelona (+250)

Barcelona have also started the season with two wins and a draw in their first three matches. After the departure of Lionel Messi, the club was thrown into disarray with off-field activities dominating conversations more  than actual soccer. That will slowly subside as the season progresses. Barcelona’s La Liga title odds have not moved at all since the last update.

Despite Messi’s exit, Barcelona still have quality across the soccer pitch. They have brought in one of the best strikers in the world in Memphis Depay, who scored in the previous game against Getafe, and his compatriot Luuk de Jong to bolster the offensive core. He played 69 games for Sevilla after moving to the La Liga from PSV in 2019, and scored 10 goals there.

“There are lots of different forwards here, but I’m tall and I’m good with my head,” de Jong said. “I know I won’t play all the time, but I have a good relationship with Koeman from playing for Holland, and he’ll know when he needs a player like me who’s good in the air. Frenkie and Memphis are great people and I also know Ter Stegen from Borussia Monchengladbach so I don’t think it will be hard to settle in.”

Value Picks To Win La Liga

The defending champions’ La Liga title odds have lengthened, which makes them a strong fit for this category.

Atletico Madrid (+325)

Atletico Madrid started the season with two wins in two matches but were held to a 2-2 draw in their last match against Villareal. An own goal in the fifth minute of injury time helped Atletico salvage an unlikely point in that fixture, keeping them abreast with their closest contenders in Real Madrid and Barcelona.

In a late transfer move, Antoine Griezmann rejoined Atletico Madrid on loan from Barcelona. He even accepted a 40 percent wage cut to return to his former club. That will surely have an impact on the La Liga title odds as this season progresses. He has scored 133 goals in 257 matches for Atletico Madrid, making him the fifth-highest goalscorer for the club along with 50 assists.

“FC Barcelona and Atlético Madrid have reached an agreement for the loan of Antoine Griezmann for a season with the option of a further season,” a statement from Barcelona read. “The Madrid club will pay the player’s wages and there is a compulsory permanent transfer clause.”

Betting Strategy For Winners Of La Liga

While Sevilla (+1400) are not a bad team, they certainly don’t have the level of depth that the top three in the La Liga possess. As a result, the best solution for bettors should be to stick to Real Madrid, Barcelona or Atletico Madrid, or a combination, in their betting slips despite the temptation of the higher payout with some other choices.

Choosing between the top three is tricky because they have all started in identical fashion with two wins and a draw. They have all made transfers, both in and out, that make compelling cases. In such situations, the best choice can often be to simply look at value.

Atletico Madrid’s La Liga title odds have lengthened sharply despite the strategic masterclass of bringing back Antoine Griezmann to a club he has felt more comfortable in, away from the spotlight. At La Liga outright odds of +325, Atletico seem to be the best value choice. Real Madrid and Barcelona will not be giving away the title so easily. While it may be early to make a final La Liga betting decision, there is surely value in Atletico at this stage.

Top-Four Finisher La Liga Betting Odds

La Liga Odds To Finish Top Four
Real Madrid-2000
Atletico Madrid-800
Real Sociedad+200
Athletic Bilbao+600
Real Betis+1000
Celta Vigo+2500

Odds as of September 8 at BetOnline Sportsbook

Favorites To Finish In The Top Four

We shall not delve too deeply into the favorites for this market because all of those options are all but certain to finish in the top four: Real Madrid (-2000), Barcelona (-1000) and Atletico Madrid (-800).

The Outside Contenders For Fourth

With just one spot remaining, there are a few candidates vying for direct entry into European soccer for next year.

Sevilla (+100)

Sevilla are joined at the top of a crowded table. They too have started the season with two wins and one draw and are currently second on the points table. That will surely change as the season progresses but that also indicates that they are no pushovers in a league packed with superstars and super teams.

They are coming into this next weekend of fixtures on the back of a 1-1 draw against Elche on the road, which was preceded by two contrasting wins: a 1-0 victory away from home against Getafe and a 3-0 win at home against Rayo Vallecano in the season opener.

Villareal (+400)

Villareal’s win in the Europa League last year was no fluke. It just showed that a team with a strong defensive lineup can achieve greatness with pure simplicity. So far this season, they have not won or lost a match. To finish in the top four, they will need to perform a lot better in matches they should be winning rather than drawing. But at La Liga outright odds of +400, you are fairly compensated for your level of risk.

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Who Will Lead La Liga In Scoring?

La Liga Golden Boot Odds
Karim Benzema+300
Luis Suarez+500
Memphis Depay+500
Youssef En-Nesyri+1000
Gerard Moreno+1600
Martin Brathwaite+1600
Vinicius Jr.+1600
Alexander Isak+1800

Odds as of September 8 at BetOnline Sportsbook

Favorites To Win Golden Boot

The La Liga is one of the slower leagues in Europe, with fewer goals scored as compared to a rapid league like the Bundesliga or the Premier League. That means a player who scores 20 goals in a season has a strong chance of finishing at the top of the charts.

Karim Benzema (+300)

Benzema has been one of the most consistent strikers in the La Liga. He has scored more than 20 goals in the Spanish league in each of the last three seasons, including 23 goals in the 2020-21 season. That was preceded by two successive seasons of 21 goals apiece. He has played in and around 3,000 minutes in each of these three seasons: 2,902 minutes last season, 3,156 minutes in the 2019-20 season and 2,962 minutes in the 2018-19 season. These numbers make him the odds-on favorite to win this market.

Luis Suarez (+500)

Suarez has not had the body of work that Benzema has in the last few seasons in the La Liga. After six seasons with Barcelona, he made the move to Atletico, where he scored 21 goals in the 2020-21 season. He played 2,522 minutes in that season, which is close to 500 minutes less than Benzema. Simple probability dictates that the chances of scoring more goals are higher with a longer stay on the pitch, particularly in the closing stage of matches when legs are tiring. Still, odds of +500 for one of the best strikers in the world is not half bad.

Memphis Depay (+500)

Depay is a valuable option at these odds. He scored in the previous match and will also be high on confidence after a hat trick in the international match for Netherlands against Turkey in a 6-1 win.

“We were often sloppy, especially me,” Depay said after that performance. “We should actually try and keep a high level, and I’m talking about myself here again. Everyone might think I’m just jubilant now after the hat trick. I’m happy, yes, but I expect more from myself.”

If Barcelona get similar production from Depay in the months moving forward, then he is a strong contender for the Golden Boot in the La Liga as well.

How To Read La Liga Title Odds

For many sportsbooks, soccer is the most popular sport for multiple factors, including the shorter length of games and high volume of matches across the world. As a result, these sportsbooks will offer you markets for almost every league in the world, including the premier Spanish league.

Here is a quick look at how to read La Liga title odds that you can find at most sportsbooks:

On most occasions, the La Liga title odds will be laid out like this:

Real Madrid +100

Barcelona +225

Using the American odds system, your return on a successful bet on a Real Madrid title would be +100, which doubles your investment. If Real Madrid win La Liga, a $100 bet would net you $100 of profit for a $200 payout. 

This is a rare example where all odds are prefixed by a positive sign. In one-sided matches and as we get closer to the end of a La Liga season, you will see the betting favorites denoted by a negative sign, which means the return on a winning bet would be much lower as a result of the lower risk you are assuming.

Our Odds Calculator will show you how much you’d win based on the offered odds and amount wagered.

What Is A La Liga Futures Bet?

Any bet that you make on an event that will happen over a lengthy period of time is referred to as a futures bet. Now you’re probably saying, “But all bets are made before a game.” This is true; however, futures odds are released weeks or even months in advance and typically focus on more than one match.

When oddsmakers create the lines, they are not permanent and will shift as more games are played. If you see futures odds you like, it’s best to take them as soon as you can before the odds move and lead to a loss in value.

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How To Bet On La Liga

Every sportsbook will have hundreds of markets for you to scroll through to pick your winning bet. Take your time browsing through because even though the odds might be identical for different markets, there are subtle factors at play that could either make your bet harder or easier to win.

For example, sportsbooks will have markets for most corners, most cards, number of cards, number of goals in the first half, market handicaps, double chance, draw no bet, both teams to score and many more.

The handicap will be higher or lower to adjust for the risk and the differences in the league. La Liga is a slower league, which means there will be fewer goals and cards than a league where the ball moves across the phases quickly, like the Serie A.

In La Liga, the UNDER for goals and cards might be a favorable market. If you’re still unsure, there are markets such as draw no bet, which lowers your risk in the case of a draw after 90 minutes. While this may seem fairly difficult to select, don’t fret because Odds Shark will continually update you about the new betting opportunities and the latest La Liga title odds.

Past La Liga Winners

Real Madrid is the most successful team in La Liga, having won the title 34 times previously. Here is a brief list of some previous winners from the elite Spanish soccer league.

Recent Winners of La Liga Championship
YearWinning ClubRunner-up
2020-21Atletico MadridReal Madrid
2019-20Real MadridBarcelona
2018-19BarcelonaAtletico Madrid
2017-18BarcelonaAtletico Madrid
2016-17Real MadridBarcelona
2015-16BarcelonaReal Madrid