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Presidential Election Odds See Big Shift

I’ve been covering the sports betting world for 15 years and I’ve never seen anything come close to what we’ve seen this presidential election. 

And I’m just talking about the odds here, never mind the rest of the circus. During the past month alone, we’ve seen Hillary Clinton go from a -210 favorite to -550 to -325. 

You just don’t see odds move like that very often over such short periods of time. 

The first wild shift in the odds came after the Trump “locker-room” talk video was released. Clinton moved to a hefty -550 fave, meaning you needed to risk $550 just to win $100. Sportsbooks smiled, as they have major liability on Trump after he opened at 150-1 and they desperately need Clinton to win this election. 

Then came the FBI’s announcement that it’s reviewing its investigation into Clinton’s emails. Sportsbooks frown. The line moved back to -325 after sportsbooks briefly took the odds off the board altogether. 

Clinton is still being given a 69.5 percent chance to win the election, according to Five Thirty Eight. But the Washington Post-ABC News poll has Trump and Clinton tied as of Nov. 2.

Looks like sportsbooks are going to have to sweat this one right up until election day. 

Follow me on Twitter @JonnyOddsShark

And check out our full Presidential Futures page for updated odds ahead of election day.

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Just two weeks ago, the odds on Hillary Clinton to become the next President of the United States were -340 at Bovada and it seemed inevitable that number was only going to climb.

Fast forward a couple of weeks and we’ve seen a huge shift to where Clinton now sits at -240 at Bovada and as low as -220 at BetOnline.

The reason for the big move may surprise you.

“It sounds stupid but I think (the move) is because of Trump’s stance on the terrorist attacks (in Nice, France). It actually sways the public’s opinion a lot,” says Kevin Bradley, odds manager at Bovada.

The timing of the move certainly makes sense. Trump was quick to condemn ‘radical Islamic terrorism’ after the attacks on July 14 and said ‘this is war’ in an interview with Fox News.

It wasn’t long after that Clinton’s odds plummeted and political prediction sites like Five Thirty Eight now say the race between Trump and Clinton has drawn much closer than just a short time ago.

The drop in odds has been attracting more Hillary money and that’s something books aren’t going to complain about.

“If Trump wins, we take a beating. Currently, the loss on Trump is about 3 1/2 times greater than the win on Clinton,” says Dave Mason, who oversees the shop at BetOnline.

It’s a similar story at most books, several of whom originally had Trump listed at 150-1 when presidential election odds were first released. The fact he’s been bet down to +175 gives a glimpse into the situation for books.

And we’re talking about Super Bowl-level action here.

“It’s closer than we want it to be,” says Bradley. “If Trump wins we’re going to lose millions.”

The Republican National Convention could have some impact on that. Both Bovada and BetOnline have some fun props offered for Trump’s speech Thursday night:

Donald Trump Acceptance Speech Props AT Betonline
PropYes oddsNo odds
Will Trump say “black lives matter”?+300-400
Will Trump say “all lives matter”?+200-260
Will Trump say “build a wall”?+120-150
How many times will he say "Make America Great Again"? (OVER 3)-140+110
How many times he says “crooked Hillary”? (OVER 4.5)+120-150
Donald Trump Acceptance Speech Props at Bovada
PropYes oddsNo odds
Trump says: "Black lives matter"?+200-300
Trump says: "China" 2 or more times?+140-180
Trump says: "Crooked Hillary"?-180+140
Trump says: "Erdogan"?+200-300
Trump says: "LeBron James"?+150-150
Trump says: "Obamacare"?-700+400
Trump says: "Stephen Colbert"?+200-300
Who will Trump mention first? Clinton -700Sanders +400

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