After covering the sports betting industry for more than 15 years, I’ve never seen anything close to what we’ve seen with this presidential election.
And I’m just talking about the odds here, never mind the rest of the circus. During the past month alone, we’ve seen Hillary Clinton go from a -210 favorite to -550 to -325.
You just don’t see odds move like that very often over such short periods of time.
The first wild shift in the odds came after the Trump “locker-room” talk video was released. Clinton moved to a hefty -550 fave, meaning you needed to risk $550 just to win $100. Sportsbooks smiled, as they have major liability on Trump after he opened at 150-1 and they desperately need Clinton to win this election.
Then came the FBI’s announcement that it’s reviewing its investigation into Clinton’s emails. Sportsbooks frown. The line moved back to -325 after sportsbooks briefly took the odds off the board altogether.
Looks like sportsbooks are going to have to sweat this one right up until election day.
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And check out our full Presidential Futures page for updated odds ahead of election day.
Just two weeks ago, the odds on Hillary Clinton to become the next President of the United States were -340 at Sportsbook and it seemed inevitable that number was only going to climb.
Fast forward a couple of weeks and we’ve seen a huge shift to where Clinton now sits at -240 at Sportsbook and as low as -220 at Sportsbook.
The reason for the big move may surprise you.
“It sounds stupid but I think (the move) is because of Trump’s stance on the terrorist attacks (in Nice, France). It actually sways the public’s opinion a lot,” says Kevin Bradley, odds manager at Sportsbook.
The timing of the move certainly makes sense. Trump was quick to condemn ‘radical Islamic terrorism’ after the attacks on July 14 and said ‘this is war’ in an interview with Fox News.
It wasn’t long after that Clinton’s odds plummeted and political prediction sites like Five Thirty Eight now say the race between Trump and Clinton has drawn much closer than just a short time ago.
The drop in odds has been attracting more Hillary money and that’s something books aren’t going to complain about.
“If Trump wins, we take a beating. Currently, the loss on Trump is about 3 1/2 times greater than the win on Clinton,” says Dave Mason, who oversees the shop at Sportsbook.
It’s a similar story at most books, several of whom originally had Trump listed at 150-1 when presidential election odds were first released. The fact he’s been bet down to +175 gives a glimpse into the situation for books.
And we’re talking about Super Bowl-level action here.
“It’s closer than we want it to be,” says Bradley. “If Trump wins we’re going to lose millions.”
The Republican National Convention could have some impact on that. Both Sportsbook and Sportsbook have some fun props offered for Trump’s speech Thursday night:
|Prop||Yes odds||No odds|
|Will Trump say “black lives matter”?||+300||-400|
|Will Trump say “all lives matter”?||+200||-260|
|Will Trump say “build a wall”?||+120||-150|
|How many times will he say "Make America Great Again"? (OVER 3)||-140||+110|
|How many times he says “crooked Hillary”? (OVER 4.5)||+120||-150|
|Prop||Yes odds||No odds|
|Trump says: "Black lives matter"?||+200||-300|
|Trump says: "China" 2 or more times?||+140||-180|
|Trump says: "Crooked Hillary"?||-180||+140|
|Trump says: "Erdogan"?||+200||-300|
|Trump says: "LeBron James"?||+150||-150|
|Trump says: "Obamacare"?||-700||+400|
|Trump says: "Stephen Colbert"?||+200||-300|
|Who will Trump mention first?||Clinton -700||Sanders +400|