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Chestnut, Sudo Massive Favorites To Win 2019 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Odds July 02

The Mustard Belt is once again up for grabs at the 103rd Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest as Joey “Jaws” Chestnut looks to win the men’s title for the 12th time in 13 years, while on the women’s side Miki Sudo aims to become a six-time belt holder. Are these two a lock to win in 2019 or is there a more relatively unknown competitive eater planning to take a bite out of the competition?

Online sportsbook Bovada has a full list of prop betting odds for you to wager on. Most notably, Chestnut has odds of -1000 to win the Mustard Belt, while for the women, Sudo is a -1600 favorite with the rest of the field coming back at +700.

He’s a Tough Chestnut to Crack, And Will Another Record be Set?

Joey “Jaws” Chestnut continues to set the competitive food eating world on fire by downing absurd amounts of food in short periods of time. Just over a month ago he set a new world record at the 2019 World Championship Canteen Sandwich Eating Contest. He plowed 28.5 sandwiches into him in just 10 minutes, 9.5 more than second-place Gideon Oji. Last year, Oji set the world record in the inaugural championship by eating 18.5.

The canteen sandwiches mark isn’t the only world record that Jaws has set this year. Just a week earlier, he topped Geoffrey Esper’s record of 36 pepperoni rolls in 10 minutes with 43, outdueling Esper, who devoured 37.5 on May 25.

There was some controversy in last year’s Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest when a counter missed a plate of 10 hot dogs eaten by Chestnut and he was initially credited with devouring 64 dogs. But the oversight was detected and he finished with a total of 74 franks (with bun) in 10 minutes. Online sportsbook Bovada has set the total number of dogs eaten by the winner this year at 73.5, a half-dog less than last year’s total. With Jaws setting two records in just over a month, I think the OVER is a good play and 75 dogs, a new world record, is not out of the question.

Can Sudo Scarf Down 41 Dogs?

Miki Sudo has competed in five Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contests and she has walked away full and with the Mustard Belt each time. She has averaged 37.7 franks per year with her career high being 41 dogs (with bun) in 2017, four off Sonya Thomas’ world record of 45 set in 2012.

This year’s total is set at 40.5 which does seem like a bit of a tall order for her to reach as she has only topped 39 franks once in her career. That being said, leading into this competition she finished third overall among men and women with 41.5 BakeMark Donuts on June 7, just 4.5 fewer than first-place Matt Stonie. Sudo also finished fifth overall with 17 malted barley pretzels downed in eight minutes, which was nine short of Geoff Esper’s 26.

She is a massive -1600 favorite to put more dogs away than the rest of the field but I’m not sure she can get to the mark of 41 franks again to hit the OVER.

Here’s the full list of odds from Bovada for the 103rd Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest:

Will Joey Chestnut Win the 2019 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest?

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • Yes -1000
  • No +550
Men’s winner of Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest - OVER/UNDER

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • OVER 73.5 -120
  • UNDER 73.5 -120
Odds To Win The Women’s 2019 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • Miki Sudo -1600
  • Field +700
Women’s winner of Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest - OVER/UNDER

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • OVER 40.5 +170
  • UNDER 40.5 -250
Men’s Championship - Head-To-Head Winner

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • Joey Chestnut -750
  • Matt Stonie +415
Men’s Championship - Head-To-Head Winner

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • Geoffrey Esper -230
  • Matt Stonie +160
Men’s Championship - Head-To-Head Winner

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • Carmen Cincotti -500
  • Geoffrey Esper +300
Men’s Championship - Head-To-Head Winner (Spread)

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • Joey Chestnut (-10.5) -115
  • Carmen Cincotti (+10.5) -125
Will A Contestant be Interrupted by PETA During the Contest? 

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • Yes +700
  • No -1600
Total Hot Dogs Eaten by Joey Chestnut at the 5-minute Mark

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • OVER 45.5 -105
  • UNDER 45.5 -135
Total Hot Dogs Eaten by Joey Chestnut In the First Minute

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • OVER 9.5 -165
  • UNDER 9.5 +125
Will There Be An Eat-Off?

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • Yes +750
  • No -2000
Will There Be A Recount?

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • No -370
  • Yes +235
Total Hot Dogs Eaten by Winner - Men’s

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • OVER 72.5 -155
  • UNDER 72.5 +115
Total Hot Dogs Eaten by Winner - Men’s 

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • OVER 71.5 -230
  • UNDER 71.5 +160
Total Hot Dogs Eaten by Winner - Women’s 

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • OVER 38.5 -130
  • UNDER 38.5 -110

UPDATE: Joey Chestnut has won the Mustard Belt again in 2018 with a final tally of 74 hot dogs, which is a world record. Miki Sudo won on the women's side, finishing with a total of 37 hot dogs.

Joey Chestnut is the Bill Russell of competitive eating. That may seem like an over-the-top comparison to liken a competitive eater to a basketball player but when you have won the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest in 10 of the last 11 years, your name can start to become synonymous with some of the greatest athletes to ever live.

This is why “Jaws” Chestnut is the large favorite to continue devouring the competition at the 102nd Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest with online sportsbook Bovada having his odds to take his 11th competitive eating title at -550. While online shops are expecting Chestnut to swallow up the competition, they’ve set the OVER/UNDER line at 72.5 hot dogs for the winner to engulf with the OVER at +155.

Will Chestnut continue this mouthy behavior? Let’s dive into the odds and see what value bettors can chew on.

HOT DOG!! WE HAVE A WIENER!!

To the average person, 72 hot dogs (with bun) could feed a person for upwards of 30 days at 2.4 weenies per day. But within 10 minutes, Joey Chestnut can inhale that amount of salt, preservatives and “pork” that would make even the most gluttonous person queasy. Chestnut engorged 72 dogs in a winning effort at last year’s event and reportedly matched that feat at a Six Flags in California on June 16 as a warm-up to Independence Day.

With the O/U line set at 72.5, I expect Jaws to surpass this total as he has stated that he has started a new regimen that can stretch his stomach by strategic fasting and an intake of milk, water and protein supplements. The value is decent at +155 and it’s worth noting that Chestnut has broken the world record for hot dogs eaten in a 10-minute span in three of the last four Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contests.

CAN ANYONE TAKE THE MUSTARD OFF THE HOT DOG?

Chick Hearn quotes aside, does anyone stand a legitimate chance of dethroning Chestnut? The last time Chestnut lost a competition was in 2015 when Matt “Megatoad” Stonie pulled off the upset (stomach) and topped Chestnut’s 60 franks with 62. Since then, Stonie has been a shell of himself, falling way short of expectations and unable to open his throat to engulf 60 dogs in a competition, with 53 in 2016 and 48 in 2017. The sports world hasn’t seen this kind of regression since Jeremy Lin’s rise and subsequent fall with the Knicks in 2012.

Other competitors like Carmen Cincotti or potentially a return from Major League Eating Hall of Famer (and fan favorite) Takeru Kobayashi could make things interesting but considering neither of those two have ever topped 70 hot dogs in a competition, they’re just there as condiments to Chestnut’s hot dog.

DON’T SLEEP ON SUDO TO INHALE 42 FRANKS

If Chestnut is Bill Russell, then Miki Sudo is Diana Taurasi. The New York native has gobbled up the women’s field over the last four years by winning the Mustard Belt at the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest from 2014 to 2017. What’s been most impressive for her is that since her reign at the top of Major League Eating, she has surpassed her winning total each year from 34 in 2014 to 41 in 2017. With the hot dog line set at 41.5, I expect Sudo to not only exceed that mark but to beat her competition by 10 franks or more.

Here is the full list of odds from Bovada for the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest with more props expected to be added as we get closer to July 4.

Odds To Win The Men’s 2018 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • Joey Chestnut -550
  • Field +325
Men’s winner of Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest - OVER/UNDER

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • OVER 72.5 +155
  • UNDER 72.5 -220
Odds To Win The Women’s 2018 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • Miki Sudo -550
  • Field +400
Women’s winner of Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest - OVER/UNDER

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • OVER 41.5 -120
  • UNDER 41.5 -120
Women’s Championship - Head-To-Head Winner

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • Miki Sudo -500
  • Sonya Thomas +300
Will A Contestant be Interrupted by PETA During the Contest 

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • Yes +750
  • No -2000
Total Hot Dogs Eaten by Joey Chestnut at the 5 min Mark

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • OVER 46 +140
  • UNDER 46 -180
Men’s Championship - Head-to-Head Winner

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • Carmen Cincotti -800
  • Geoffrey Esper +425
Total Hot Dogs Eaten by Carmen Cincotti

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • OVER 59.5 -220
  • UNDER 59.5 +155
Total Hot Dogs Eaten by Mark Stonie at the 5 min Mark

Odds as of June 29 at Bovada

  • OVER 36.5 -150
  • UNDER 36.5 +110
Total Hot Dogs Eaten by Joey Chestnut In the first Min

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • OVER 12.5 -130
  • UNDER 12.5 -110
Will There Be An Eat-Off?

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • Yes +750
  • No -2000
Total Hot Dogs Eaten by Matt Stonie in First Min

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • OVER 9 -165
  • UNDER 9 +125
Men’s Championship - Head-to-Head Winner

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • Joey Chestnut -600
  • Matt Stonie +350
Total Hot Dogs Eaten by Winner 

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • OVER 68.5 -500
  • UNDER 68.5 +300
Total Hot Dogs Eaten by Winner

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

  • UNDER 66.5 +415
  • OVER 66.5  -750
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