Improbable Odds History Kentucky Derby
Horse Racing

Improbable 2019 Kentucky Derby Contender Profile

  • Sportsbook Odds: +500
  • Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
  • Trainer: Bob Baffert
  • Owners: WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, and Starlight Racing
  • Career record: 5-3-2-0
  • Career earnings: $619,520
  • Kentucky Derby points: 65
  • Pedigree: City Zip – Rare Event, by A.P. Indy

Improbable has been overshadowed most of his career by 2018 juvenile champion and stablemate Game Winner, but this colt has a ton of talent.

He showed it as a juvenile, going undefeated in three starts, capping off his juvenile campaign by winning the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) on December 8. At that time, he was the fourth choice in early Kentucky Derby wagering at Sportsbook at +2000.

His three-year-old debut came in the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park, which was split into two divisions. The colt stalked the early pace, took over the lead heading for home but got run down by Long Range Toddy and beaten a neck. 

It was a solid effort considering it was his first outing off a 3 ½-month break. His final tune-up for the Run for the Roses would come in the Arkansas Derby (G1). 

He shipped back to Oaklawn Park for their marquee event of the season and again he had to settle for the runner-up spot, beaten a length by Omaha Beach. 

Now Improbable despite his talent is the third stringer from the Bob Baffert barn behind Roadster and Game Winner, who are co-favorites of the Kentucky Derby at +500.

The colt has not missed landing in the exacta in his five starts and was just a length behind Omaha Beach, who may end up going off as the betting favorite on the first Saturday of May. Of the trio of Baffert runners this guy could end up offering the best value for the top spot.

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