We are quickly approaching the 154th running of the Belmont Stakes.
The Belmont Stakes, which is the third leg of the American Triple Crown, will not have a Triple Crown hero or heroine this weekend, but we do have a fascinating race with Rich Strike trying to follow up his amazing win in the Kentucky Derby.
We have a select field of eight runners set to go to post at 6:44 p.m. ET on Saturday, with the Rodolphe Brisset-trained We The People as the chalk and a short price of around +200.
We The People as favorite looks a strange one to us and looks to be very poor value.
But we are here to talk about how we can find some value bets. And the answer is by using props.
Let’s take a look at some of the prop markets for Saturday.
Straight Duel Matchups
A straight matchup prop is a simple bet to understand and it’s a simple Yes or No answer.
Considering We The People is +200 to win the race and the wire-to-wire prop for Yes is +277, that is good value if you fancy We The People.
Best Finishing Position Matchups
In this matchup bet, you are making a choice between three runners, much more difficult to choose with three strongly fancied horses. This may be a market for the serious horseplayers among you. We think Mo Donegal looks like the play here.
|We The People||+125|
The Mid-Priced Runners
In this matchup bet, this is a really tricky threesome on paper but we think you can dismiss Nest as she just might not have the strength of the boys here. This looks like a match between Rich Strike and Creative Minister and we’d have to go with the Kentucky Derby winner.
The Long Shots
This matchup of the best finishing position from the long shots looks a much easier choice and a very strong fancy here is Barber Road to come out on top.
Winning Starting Gate Props
We only have eight runners going to post, so the split on this prop is 1-4 vs 5-8 and the favorite is drawn in gate No. 1 with Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike in 4. In the other half of the draw, you have Mo Donegal and Creative Minister. This prop does not really offer any value for horseplayers, in our opinion.
Winning Distance Props
This is a really popular bet for players who like to play in the props market. The racebooks will offer an OVER/UNDER wager on the margin of victory for the winning horse.
Although the race is over a mile and a half, it could be a tight finish. We The People will set the fractions but there are a lot of closers here, and that may lead to a tight race.
|OVER 1.5 Lengths||-130|
|UNDER 1.5 Lengths||-101|
To Finish In The First Three Places
This is a market where you are not placing a standard win, place or show wager. You just need to pick out a horse and they must finish in the first three.
This looks like a race where Rich Strike might not win but might be impossible to keep off the board. He would be the value call here.
Here are some of the odds available:
|We The People||-200|
To Finish Last
Now, this can be an interesting market and one where there might be some value. Of course, the betting says that the outsiders Golden Glider and Skippylongstocking should be the ones fighting out the last spot. But we are not sure that will happen.
Having watched all of the trials, there are a couple of horses that may be worth backing to finish last. The first is Golden Glider. This colt just does not look good enough against this bunch of proven graded stakes rivals and at +250 looks a great price.
The other one that could finish last is one of the more fancied horses, We The People. Yes, we know he is the favorite and was very impressive last time, but he has not shown form against this class of rivals.
This race will be run strongly before the far turn and there may be a question about his stamina here. He is +2000 to finish last.
Backing both of these horses to finish last at a straight $2 stake will give you a minimum profit of around $3 if Golden Glider finishes last, and up to $18 profit if We The People finishes last.
You can see all of the “to finish last” odds below.
|We The People||+2000|
So if you fancy a real upset, you can back We The People to finish last at +2000 (20/1).