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MLB MVP Odds: Tatis and deGrom Tied

Jacob deGrom, and Shohei Ohtani currently lead the NL and AL MVP odds

Coming out of the 2021 MLB all-star break and into the thick of the baseball season, oddsmakers have updated their betting odds for American League and National League MVP awards. Shohei Ohtani has been tabbed as the clear AL favorite while Jacob deGrom and Fernando Tatis Jr. are tied as the NL faves.

The best baseball betting sites have moved Ohtani all the way to -350 to win his first AL MVP trophy with the Los Angeles Angels, while deGrom and Tatis are listed at -120 to win the NL award. At their current odds, the lines imply Ohtani has a 78 percent chance to nab the AL MVP and deGrom/Tatis have a 55 percent chance to win the NL award.

Mike Trout opened as the favorite in AL MVP odds but given how his two-way teammate has fared as both a slugger and pitcher this season, Ohtani’s value to the Angels is exponentially growing by the game. DeGrom, on the other hand, has been the top pitcher in the National League for the past few seasons but has never won the NL’s top honor.

If this is your first time betting on baseball, here are some key links to bookmark: 

World Series Odds | MLB Futures MLB Win Totals | Odds To Make Playoffs | Cy Young Odds | How To Bet On Baseball

See Odds Shark’s Best Baseball Betting Sites

Let’s look at each MLB league and determine some betting value for Most Valuable Player:

Who is Favored in MLB American League MVP Odds?

Odds to Win 2021 American League MVP
Shohei Ohtani-350
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.+250
Xander Bogaerts+2800
Aaron Judge+4000
Jose Ramirez+4000
Bo Bichette+5000
Byron Buxton+5000
J.D. Martinez+5000

Odds as of July 29 at Bovada

At this point, it’s truly shocking to see the impact Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Angels has had on AL MVP odds. The dual threat he presents as a hitter and starting pitcher is something MLB hasn’t seen in decades since game footage and still images were in black and white.

Ohtani leads the majors in home runs with 33 and in slugging percentage at .698, and is third in RBIs (70). While the hitting is fairly remarkable, the fact that he is also in the Angels starting rotation is what truly sets him apart. It takes a lot to stand out on a roster that includes someone as talented as Mike Trout but Ohtani is doing just that.

His home run highlights are absurdly enjoyable as he takes cuts at pitches way outside the zone and takes them out of the park. As for the pitching, he may only be above-average in most statistical categories but it’s still remarkable to watch a full-time position player have a 3.49 ERA and 87 strikeouts in 67.0 innings. His WHIP is a little high at 1.21 compared to other top-caliber pitchers, but that’s because he’s still having some command issues, which have led to 35 walks. That’s not something that can’t be corrected but it’s still worth monitoring through the season.

Trout has dropped off the top of the MLB MVP oddsboard and has been out of the Angels lineup since May 17 with a calf strain. Everyone knows just how valuable he is but the fact remains that no matter how well he does at the dish, his contributions to team success can only go so far when Ohtani is cranking bombs to the parking lot and striking out the side in the next inning.

Voter fatigue is a real thing in the MLB MVP races and after winning three MVP trophies in his career, the wonders of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Ohtani have given voters something new to consider.

Who is Favored in MLB National League MVP Odds?

Odds to Win 2021 National League MVP
Jacob deGrom-120
Fernando Tatis Jr.-120
Juan Soto+1000
Trea Turner+1400
Kris Bryant+3300
Bryce Harper+4000
Nolan Arenado+4000
Francisco Lindor+4000
Nicholas Castellanos+4000

Odds as of July 29 at Bovada

It’s difficult to put into words just how impressive New York Mets starting pitcher Jacob deGrom has been over the last few seasons. Over his eight-year career, deGrom has just two seasons with an ERA over 3.00 and he has led the NL in strikeouts each of the last two seasons.

The right-hander nabbed back-to-back Cy Youngs in 2018 and 2019 but has never finished higher than fifth in MVP voting. This year, however, deGrom has taken his game to a new level, posting a 1.08 ERA through 92 innings (15 starts) and striking out more than 13 times as many batters as he walks. If the Mets ace stays as the MVP favorite for the rest of the season, he could become the first hurler to win the award since Clayton Kershaw in 2014.

With Ronald Acuña Jr. injured, deGrom’s main competition is San Diego Padres infielder Fernando Tatis Jr. El Niño may be the most exciting player to arrive in baseball since Mike Trout and is now the cover athlete for MLB 21 The Show.

Hype aside, the young shortstop has been electric on the field. In 2021, he’s hit 31 home runs with a .290 batting average while providing solid defense at shortstop. This is coming off a shortened season in 2020 in which he put up 17 home runs, 45 RBIs and 11 stolen bases. The craziest stat about Tatis is he has only played a total of 217 games in the big leagues over three years.

Dark-Horse Candidate in AL MVP Odds

It’s hard to view Xander Bogaerts as a significant “dark horse” as he is currently tied for third in AL MVP odds and has received MVP votes in three of the last four seasons.

While anyone will struggle to jump both Guerrero and Ohtani in the AL MVP race, Bogaerts can make a case as the best player on the best team in the league. Leading the surprisingly dominant Boston Red Sox, Bogaerts is hitting over .320 with 51 RBIs at the MLB all-star break. Though his .930 OPS is very good, it is not on the same tier of statistical production as Guerrero and Ohtani.

If the Boston shortstop is to vault himself into the top of the MVP conversation, he will need to take his second-half game to an even higher level and hope for some regression from the top players in the AL.

Making a Futures Bet

A futures bet is a wager made on events or milestones that will happen in time. The MLB MVP bet is a form of futures betting because you are making a pick based on an outcome determined at the end of the MLB regular season. The trophy is usually given out in mid-December and if you want to get a bigger payout, it’s best to lock in your bets sooner rather than later so you can take advantage of better odds. The closer it gets to the end of the season, the more the odds will change.

See Odds Shark’s Best MLB Betting Sites

How to Read MLB MVP Odds

The above chart features the MLB MVP odds for each top player in the American League and National League. At your sportsbook of choice, the betting lines would look something like this:

Mookie Betts +650

Ronald Acuna Jr. +1000

Christian Yelich +1200

This means that Betts is the favorite since he has the lowest odds and the highest chance of winning the prop, according to oddsmakers. If you were to bet $100 on Betts and he won, you would get a payout of $750 – your original $100 is returned along with your winnings of $650.

On the other hand, if you strongly believe that Yelich is going to shine in Milwaukee, a winning $100 bet on him would yield $1,300 – your $100 comes back along with your prize of $1,200.

Our Odds Calculator will show you how much you’d win based on the odds and amount bet.