MLB Betting Reports

Below, we have the 2023 series opening and closing betting trends. We’ll update these records with MLB betting trends throughout the season, so you can use these betting nuggets to help nail your baseball wagers.

Team Records When Opening A Series

The best teams in baseball, like the Dodgers and Braves, unsurprisingly dominate series openers. The worst openers list isn't much of a surprise either, with disaster squads like the Cardinals and White Sox leading the list.

Team Records When Closing A Series

2023's young breakout team, Baltimore re-joined the playoff picture on the back of an impressive series-closing record. This exciting squad has put its youth on display as it has outlasted opponents as the series go on. On the other side, Oakland stands out with just 10 close-out wins on the year. Puke.

If you love MLB betting but don't want to wait a full game, boy, do I have a wager for you: First Five Innings Betting, which is often referred to as F5 betting.

Below, we have F5 data from the 2023 season.

F5 Moneyline Records

F5 OVER/UNDER Records

Most Profitable F5 Pitchers

Least Profitable F5 Pitchers

How First Five Innings Betting Works

It’s quite simple — you’re basically just making a bet on what the result will be at the end of five innings as opposed to the full-game outcome. Just like regular full-game betting, there’s a moneyline and total option, along with a runline which is 0.5 runs instead of the regular full-game 1.5 runs. The value of an F5 moneyline bet generally isn’t as good as the full-game odds because there’s less risk involved but this can vary from game to game.

Why Bet First Five Innings Instead Of Full Game?

There are many different strategies when employing either betting option, but the decision often comes down to the starting pitching matchup and/or quality of the bullpens. If a team has a significant edge in the starting pitching matchup, a bettor might opt to bet the first five. If a team has a quality starter on the mound, but the bullpen can’t be trusted, this is another opportunity to consider a first five innings bet.

How These Tables Work

The data in these tables is based solely on results from the first five innings and profits are based on $100 bets. The moneyline profits are in the brackets beside each record. Keep in mind every single game needs to be analyzed differently. Just because a team has been a strong moneyline or OVER bet throughout the season doesn’t necessarily mean it’s worthy of a bet each day. Many factors should be considered when placing a bet and this data can be a great weapon to have in your betting tool belt. 

Below, we’ll break down MLB live-betting trends to know, including the best teams when scoring first and leading late, as well as the best comeback squads in baseball.

Here's the latest 2023 MLB live in-game betting data:

Best MLB Teams When Leading

Data from the 2023 MLB season, so far. All profits are from pre-game outright lines, for a $100 unit size.

Nats Profitable With Lead

The best live bet with a lead last season was... Washington? The rebuilding Nationals have taken 58 leads into the eighth, holding on to win 52 of those contests. This record is unremarkable relative to the rest of the league, but what makes the Nats profitable in these spots is their tantalizing live price.

While World Series contenders show -1000 prices with a late lead, the books still doubt the Nats' ability to seal the deal. Bettors brave enough to back the Nationals should look for some juicy live bets in 2024.

Best MLB Teams When Losing

Data from the 2023 MLB season, so far. All profits are from pre-game outright lines, for $100 unit size.

Cardinals Not Showing Resilience

Sitting in dead last in the NL Central, the Cards had a terrible 2023. Their inability to face adversity is not helping their cause, as they have been dead in the water after giving up the initial run, winning just 17 of 73 such contests. 

63 of the Cardinals' games have seen a run scored in the first inning, which is among the most in MLB. Considering its inability to come back, this is far from ideal for St. Louis. If you see the Cards give up a quick run in the opening frame, consider live betting their opponent if the price is right.

More Live MLB Betting Tips

Here are a few more general trends to keep in mind when making in-game baseball wagers:

Betting moneyline favorites in baseball isn’t always worth it, and we can’t always put faith in the underdogs, so taking the runline is a great way to get more bang for your buck. 

Here are a few highlights from the 2023 MLB runline data:

2023 MLB Runline Report: All 30 MLB teams

MLB Runline: Braves, Rangers Take The Lead

The Braves have been the best team in baseball this season, and their success has translated to runline results as they lead MLB with 1.78 units of profit. Assuming its eight All-Stars come out of the break as hot as they entered it, Atlanta should continue to be a strong runline wager.

The Dodgers have excelled this August, as they always do, led by Mookie Betts' torrid hitting streak. They have the power to blow a team out on any given night, and that's exactly what they've done recently as their last nine wins have been by two runs or more.

Bad MLB bullpens are hard to watch. But we’re making them profitable. Below, we’ve broken down the best and worst bullpens in baseball and how you can capitalize on them to make some betting profit.

2023 MLB Worst Bullpen Betting Trends

Data courtesy of Odds Shark’s database as of August 31st, 2023

We’ve got data from 2023 season below, and we’ll update this page throughout the year until the World Series.

A horrendous 6.78 late-game ERA when leading by a single ensures that no lead is safe for the Rockies. If you see Colorado up a run in the eighth inning, consider a live-fade due to its awful 'pen.

The Cardinals are one of baseball's most disappointing teams this season, and their bullpen is largely responsible. St. Louis' lineup ranks ninth in OPS this year, yet the team is 20 games below .500. Relief pitching should be at the top of the Cards' offseason shopping list.

Check below for some tips on how to use this bullpen data to inform your bets, but one of the main things to note with these best bullpens is not to expect a comeback if you’re betting against them.

If you’re looking for more MLB betting resources, check out Odds Shark’s MLB Betting Hub as well as our MLB computer picks page.

How To Profit Off Bad Bullpens

The best way to profit off these shaky bullpens is by tracking games and keeping an eye out for live-betting situations.

If these bad late-game pitching squads have a one- or two-run lead heading into the final few frames, it’s worth sprinkling some cash on the opposition for a hefty underdog payout! All of the top baseball books have live-betting options, so sign up and watch out for a leaky bullpen getting the lead.

Bad Bullpen? Bet The OVER

Another way to capitalize on bad bullpens and shaky late-game pitching is by betting the OVER.

The Diamondbacks, who were the second-worst ’pen in baseball in 2021 per 7-9th inning ERA, hit the OVER at 57.4 percent that year, tops in the league. While OVER/UNDER betting in baseball often bakes in opponent offenses and starting pitching matchups, the late-game pitching is often forgotten. 

How To Bet On MLB Baseball

There are three main ways to bet on MLB, in the form of moneyline betting, runline betting or total runs. Moneyline betting is simple, where you just choose the winner of a game. Total runs betting is where you bet on whether the total runs scored in a game will go OVER or UNDER a preset total.

Like most spread bets, for an MLB runline you’re betting that the favorite (denoted by a minus sign) will win by a set number of runs (usually 1.5), or that the underdog (denoted by a plus) will win outright or lose by less than a set number of runs. At any sportsbook, you’ll notice MLB runline spread odds are listed like this:

In this example, the Blue Jays are 1.5-run favorites. If you believe that the Jays will win by more than 1.5 runs, you can bet on them to win. If you think the Twins will win, or lose by less than 1.5 runs, you should bet on them!

Check out our odds calculator to see how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered, as well as the implied probability of all odds.

Below, we break down which parks have been the best for OVER bettors this season and how you can take advantage of the 2023 MLB stadium betting trends.

2023 Best OVER Ballparks In Baseball

If you bet $100 on every OVER at Pittsburgh's PNC Park this year, you’d be up 14 units.

Bet The OVER At Tropicana

Through the last five seasons, Tropicana has been the ninth most profitable stadium to the OVER, but according to Statcast, it ranks near the bottom of the league in hitter friendliness. Perhaps the park's apparent defensive environment is providing low totals that Tampa's 2023 hitters can single-handedly smash.

When we say single-handedly, we mean it. The Rays have eight players with 17-plus home runs. On the other side of the lineup, a sparkling 3.87 team ERA has guided the Rays to a strong 80-52 record. If you take an OVER at the Trop, don't be surprised if Tampa hitters cash your ticket by themselves.

2023 Best UNDER Ballparks In Baseball

Data courtesy of Odds Shark’s database for the 2023 season

UNDERs At Citi Field

On the other side of these rankings is one of the best UNDER parks in baseball, residing in New York. The Mets' Citi Field has hit UNDER in 66.7% of games this season. The Mets are batting an abysmal .228 at home, good for third-worst in the majors. It's been a long season for New York, and its fans have been subjected to low scoring home losses all year.

Best OVER Ballparks - Last 5 Years 

Truist Park is a haven for runs. It’s been the fifth-best OVER park in 2023, and it’s been top four through the last five seasons. This may have less to do with the park's layout, and more to do with Atlanta's offensive stars, but the trend has stuck nonetheless.

Only the five parks listed above have been profitable for OVER bettors the last five seasons. The worst OVERs park, Detroit’s Comerica Park, has an OVER betting record of 91-118-10 from 2018-2022 and -$3,537.17 profits for $100 bettors over that time.

Is Coors Field Actually An OVERs Park?

While Truist has been the home for run scorers, Colorado’s Coors Field is often cited as the most offensive park in baseball. But, it’s actually been one of the worst parks for OVER bettors in recent years.

In the last five seasons, Coors ranks as the ninth-least profitable park for OVER bettors in baseball, with a 104-116-7 record. If you had bet $100 on the OVER on every game at Coors, you would’ve lost $2,108.49 during that time. This park consistently sees totals well over 10 runs, so maybe check your anti-Coors bias and sprinkle the Colorado UNDER from time to time 

How To Bet On MLB OVER/UNDERs

There are three main ways to bet on MLB, in the form of moneyline betting, runline betting or total runs. To take advantage of this ballpark OVER/UNDER data, you’ll have to focus on that third option, run totals.

In an MLB run total bet, you’re betting on whether both teams will combine to score OVER or UNDER a set number of runs in a game. At the sportsbook, you’ll notice MLB OVER/UNDER odds are listed like this for a fictional Jays/Twins game:

In this example, if you believe that the Twins and Jays will combine to score OVER 8.5 runs (if the score is, for example, 5-4 Toronto), you would win $190.91 on a $100 bet – your initial $100 wager plus $90.91 in profit. Check out our odds calculator to see how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered, as well as the implied probability of all odds.

If you’re looking for more MLB betting resources, check out Odds Shark’s MLB Betting Hub as well as our MLB computer picks page.

With Yes/No Runs First Inning bets, you get the same MLB betting drama and tension, plus a nearly-immediate result.

Below we have a complete breakdown of the Yes/No Run First inning betting trends, the best MLB teams for each side of the wager and a complete breakdown of what these YRFI/NRFI markets are:

Yes/No First Inning Runs Betting Trends

Dodgers top YRFI Bet

Much like many categories in baseball, the Los Angeles Dodgers are a fantastic YRFI team. Mookie Betts and the Dodgers' bats have been on a tear this summer, ripping up the first inning to the tune of 0.77 1st inning runs scored per game.

Leadoff homer? Mookie being Mookie. pic.twitter.com/kvCv8Mj1h4

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) September 12, 2023

Of course, betting YRFI is pretty fantastic when Mookie smacks a leadoff homer. Moreover, the Dodgers roll out perhaps the greatest top of the lineup in all of baseball. The aforementioned Betts is an MVP-candidate. While Freddie Freeman is hitting a sparkling .337, with 26 homeruns, and 93 RBIs. Will Smith has smacked 18 homeruns of his own, with a 2.69 average, and Max Muncy has excelled from the cleanup spot while hitting 35 dingers.

Additionally, the Dodgers pitchers are allowing 0.56 1st inning runs per game. Siding with the Dodgers is never a bad bet as the YRFI/NRFI betting trends can attest.

Marlins Great NRFI Squad

On the flip side, the Miami Marlins remain the league's greatest NRFI bet going an incredible 99-55. They lead the league in NRFIs by three games over the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Marlins come in near the bottom of our MLB Power Rankings for a reason. Miami has failed to muster much of an offense all season, scoring just over 4 runs per game. While their lack of offense is problematic for adding to the win column, Miami's offense is the perfect target for NRFI bets!

Moreover, the Marlins pitching staff have allowed a little over 8 hits and 4.45 runs per game this season. Miami is ideal squad to focus on with your NRFI bets the rest of this MLB season.

Braves Remain Strong First Inning Team

The Braves remain atop the MLB standings, and they also lead in first inning runs scored with 0.9 per game. Ronald Acuña, Austin Riley and Matt Olson make for a terrifying top-of-lineup that has helped bettors cash the YRFI all season.

Thankfully, Atlanta's pitching staff has also been kind to 1st inning pitches in the past few weeks. Making the Braves one of the very best YRFI bets on the board!

The Atlanta Braves have scored 117 first-inning runs in 118 games this year and the MLB team single season record is 160. 👀pic.twitter.com/SuhgpxkPCM

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) August 14, 2023

What Are YRFI/NRFI Bets?

YRFI/NRFI stands for 'Yes Run First Inning' or 'No Run First Inning'. Simply put, this is a betting market where you're predicting if there will or will not be at least one run scored in the first inning of a game. This run can come from either team, in the top or bottom half of the inning. It's just an OVER/UNDER 0.5 runs scored wager for the first inning of the game. Here's an example of what the market would look like at your MLB sportsbook:

Will There Be a 1st Inning Run In the Brewers vs Cardinals Game?

Many YRFI/NRFI odds are close to even money for both sides of the wager. In this case, a winning $100 bet on either side of the market would pay out $186.96, per our odds calculator. You just pick if you think the Brewers and/or the Cards will get to the starting pitchers early, and choose which side you're riding with.

A club’s success – or lack thereof – often comes down to how well the offense performs with runners in scoring position (RISP). Our RISP baseball leaderboard offers a unique insight for MLB bettors who love the chance to jump on a good rally and win money.

MLB RISP Leaders: Best Teams

All stats come via Fangraphs as of August 28.

It’s no surprise to see the Braves, Dodgers and Orioles, baseball’s best teams, at the top of the leaderboard. But since these squads will be heavily chalked in the games they play, there’s not much value to be found there. Let’s zoom in on some other teams.

St. Louis Cardinals (.768 OPS with RISP)

The Cards have underwhelmed in the standings this season, but they’ve proven their offense can be potent, especially with runners in scoring position. Their offense is good for the eleventh-best OPS with RISP, and the Cardinals are also a high-power team, producing the eighth-most home runs with RISP (43).

The problem for St. Louis is that it has a hard time getting itself into these situations. It ranks 20th in MLB with 1,222 plate appearances with RISP.

Brendan Donovan (1.005 OPS), Nolan Gorman (.955) and Lars Nootbaar (.913) are all very solid hitters with men on. If these three are set to bat in a tightly contested game, get your live-betting fingers ready for some lucrative action. 

New York Yankees (.686 OPS with RISP)

We’ll touch on the Yankees quickly, who currently sit 11 games back of a Wild Card spot, and six games below .500. It's no secret that the Bronx Bombers have failed to lived up to their name at the plate this season, but settling in above just Kansas City and Oakland in this metric is an embarrassment for one of baseball's highest payrolls.

DJ LeMahieu (.619 OPS with RISP) and Anthony Rizzo (.669) are the least productive of the Yankees' regulars, but almost everyone on the roster has underperformed in these high-leverage situations. Gleyber Torres is the lone Yankee with an OPS above .800 with runners in scoring position.

MLB RISP Leaders: Best Players (Minimum 60 PAs)

MLB RISP Leaders: Worst Players (Minimum 60 PAs)

What Does ‘Runners In Scoring Position’ Mean?

In baseball, whenever a runner reaches second base or beyond, he’s considered “in scoring position.” When a batter steps up to the plate with a runner on second base, third base or with the bases loaded, he is taking an at-bat with runners in scoring position (RISP). 

RISP opportunities are a club’s best chance to score runs during a game. Typically, the best teams and the best players capitalize in these situations. But that’s not always the case, and there are exceptions that can actually offer bettors sneaky live-betting value. 

Why Is Hitting With RISP Important For Handicapping/Live Betting? 

When there are runners on base with a chance to score, a sportsbook might move the odds a smidge in the hitting team’s favor. There are a variety of factors that influence live-betting odds – including how bad the opposing team’s bullpen is, for example – but a big inning with runners on the bases typically offers a great opportunity to hammer the odds on the hitting team or fade a club that is awful at hitting with RISP.

If you haven’t done so already, remember to check out our MLB futures, MLB win totals, odds to make the playoffs and more over at our MLB hub. If you’re new to betting on baseball, check out our How To Bet On Baseball page for some helpful tips and info.

Baseball sharps take note of which parks favor hitters or pitchers. There are betting advantages and disadvantages camouflaged within each venue's towering wall or short porch. 

Here's everything you need to know about the best and worst MLB ballparks for home runs.

All Park Factor sabermetrics come via Baseball Savant.

Homer Heaven: Best MLB Ballparks for Home Runs

If you're someone who loves the value of a home run player prop, take note of the ballparks that can make or break your bet. 

Yankee Stadium (198) - NYY

Surprise, surprise. Yankee Stadium cracks this list as one of the most notorious hitter-friendly venues in baseball. This season, Baseball Savant has awarded the park an MLB-high score of 198 (where 100 is average). That means, among pitchers and hitters who played at Yankee Stadium and elsewhere, 98% more homers were observed in the Bronx. 

With a shallow 314-foot short porch in right field, one would think this park favors lefties more than righties. Nuh-uh. While left-handers have scored 148, righties have gone yard more frequently this season, scoring a whopping 250 on Savant's HR Park Factor. 

Angel Stadium (198) - LAA

Angel Stadium scores identically to Yankee Stadium, which isn't terribly shocking given its reputation as a consistently hitter-friendly ballpark. This year, on HRs specifically, Anaheim is playing equal to Yankee Stadium at 198.

24 of the Angels' 34 home runs this season have come at home. For example, Shohei Ohtani is 3-for-11 (27%) on home runs at Angel Stadium this season compared to 3-for-13 (23%) on the road. That's not a glorious sample size, but as the season progresses, it'll be worth following those home/away HR trends to see if they expand.

Homer Hell: Worst MLB Ballparks For Home Runs

Maybe you love old-timey small ball? Maye you're scanning daily picks and want to fade a team with tons of sluggers? Either way, this will help inform your next move.

Oakland Coliseum (53) - OAK

There are many disasters plaguing this A's club at the moment, including record-breaking poor play, a relocation bid and attendance trouble, but I'd be remiss if I didn't mention how dreadful the ballpark is. A behemoth concrete monstrosity, the Coliseum is built more for football than baseball, and that's bad news for home-run hitters.

The walls are very high (as tall as 14 feet in some spots) and the corners are each 330 feet from home plate. This building swallows homers and spits them back onto the field for lousy extra-base hits. I'd reconsider any home run prop bets at the ol' Oakland Coliseum.

Progressive Field (61) - CLE

Progressive Field is pretty to look at, but Savant hates the park for longballs this season. Cleveland has scored 61 out of 100, meaning homers have been few and far between in The Land. 

This ballpark is a nightmare for left-handed hitters thanks to an unnecessarily deep 410-foot center-field wall that only gradually diminishes to a 375-foot right-center power alley. All told, lefty hitters have generated a lowly score of 49 on Savant's HR factor, tied with Target Field in Minnesota for the worst score in MLB.

Below, we've compiled a team and player MLB Day Games Betting Report to help your day baseball bets. All the data collected below is for 2023 day MLB games, which are characterized as games with a start time before 5 pm ET:

Best Day Game MLB Teams

The Nationals are surprisingly great under the day-game sun. Despite a .460 win rate overall, the Nats are over .500 during the day.

Even after trading a day-game hero like Jeimer Candelario at the trade deadline, the Nationals have kept up the afternoon success. It's coming on the back of some great performances by catcher Keibert Ruiz and infielder CJ Abrams. Both young bats are hitting .300 during the day with OPS over .830. Despite being more of a speed/contact guy, Abrams has seven homers in just 45 day games.

CJ Abrams makes it back-to-back homers and the boo birds are out in the Bronx pic.twitter.com/acJZYU4Shj

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) August 24, 2023

Worst Day Game MLB Teams

There aren't many big surprises with the worst day teams, as it's many of the league's worst teams overall. However, Oakland is somehow even worse in day games than usual. If the A's were to only play day games this season, they'd be on pace for under 30 wins. Woof. I certainly hope you haven't been betting on Oakland during the afternoon.

Best Day Game Hitters

Most of the top day-game hitters are just the best bats in baseball. So, let's go a little off the board to highlight a day-game hero.

But, one non-elite hitter that stands out here is Tigers 1B Spencer Torkelson. A former No. 1 draft pick, Tork has all the potential in the world at the plate, but the run production seems to be only showing up during the day. Check out his Day vs Night counting stats:

Tork During Day: 60 GP, 14 HR, 35 RBI
Night: 72 GP, 10 HR, 34 RBI

Best Day Game Starting Pitchers

Blake Snell's having a great season, rocking a 2.73 ERA overall. But, under the San Diego sun, he takes his game to a whole other level. Snell leads all of baseball with a 1.23 day ERA allowing just six earned runs across eight starts. It's bucking a career trend for him though, as Snell owns a lower career ERA during the night (3.17) compared to the day (3.51).

The MLB season is a grind. With 162 games and very few days off, those moments of rest can be huge for players and teams — and maybe for MLB bettors too.

Below, we'll break down which starting pitchers and hitters perform noticeably better with an extra day of rest:

Top Starting Pitchers On Extra Rest

For starters, four days of rest is considered normal between starts. So, extra rest in this case considers any start with at least five days off between outings. The attached betting profits are the moneyline profits (for $100 bets) on the pitchers' teams on starts where they have an additional day rest.

Rangers starters Dominate With Extra Rest

The Rangers may have lost regular Cy Young favorite Jacob deGrom to a season-ending injury. But, the rest of Texas' rotation has stepped up — particularly on extra rest.

Jordan Montgomery was elite with an extra day or two of rest, rocking an ERA in the under 2.00, ranking out as one of the best pitchers in baseball on five or more days of rest. Keep an eye on Montgomery in 2024.

Top Hitters On Extra Rest

For batters, extra rest is defined as a single off day. That could be an overall team off day or simply being out of the lineup the day before. If you come into a game as a pinch hitter, pinch runner, or defensive sub, that doesn't count as a day of rest.