Updated MLB Expected Win Totals and Betting Odds
Spring training is well underway and oddsmakers have adjusted their win total projections for each of the 30 MLB teams. Of course, we wouldn’t be writing about this if you couldn’t bet on it, so let’s take a dive into some of the better plays.
How many wins is Bryce Harper worth to the Phillies? Five, according to the Phillies’ new win total of 89.5. Before the signing of Harper, the Phillies were expected to win 84.5 games. Since signing Manny Machado, the Padres go from winning 66 games last year to an expected total of 78.5 this season.
The Houston Astros and New York Yankees have the highest expected win totals at 96.5, despite both being bounced in the 2018 playoffs by the Boston Red Sox. Speaking of those Red Sox, they are expected to be in a heated battle for the entire season with those Yankees and have an expected win total of 94.5. That’s right, New York is the AL East favorite.
My Best Picks for 2019 Win Totals
The Cleveland Indians are listed on this table at 90.5 wins despite beginning a sell-off in the offseason that could result in even more bodies leaving town as the season progresses.
Even with a division-leading lineup last season, the Indians finished with 91 wins in a very weak AL Central that is expected to be more competitive this season. I’ll be taking UNDER on the Indians total.
The Toronto Blue Jays finished 2018 with 73 wins and have since parted ways with veterans Russell Martin and Troy Tulowitzki while also trading Aledmys Diaz and letting Yangervis Solarte leave via free agency. With the division expected to be even stronger this season, I expect the Jays to finish below the 74.5 win total being offered at this time.
The Arizona Diamondbacks went into the winter with 23 players filing for free agency, including Patrick Corbin, Jon Jay, Clay Buchholz and A.J. Pollock. They later traded away Paul Goldschmidt. The big offseason signing? Wilmer Flores. I’m taking UNDER 75.5 wins for the Diamondbacks.
Take a look at the full list here:
| Team | 2018 Wins | 2019 Win Total | OVER | UNDER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 82 | 75.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Atlanta Braves | 90 | 86.5 | +100 | -130 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 47 | 59.5 | +105 | -135 |
| Boston Red Sox | 108 | 94.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Chicago Cubs | 95 | 88.5 | +120 | -150 |
| Chicago White Sox | 62 | 74.5 | +115 | -145 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 67 | 79 | -110 | -120 |
| Cleveland Indians | 91 | 90.5 | -135 | +105 |
| Colorado Rockies | 91 | 84.5 | -125 | -105 |
| Detroit Tigers | 64 | 68.5 | -110 | -120 |
| Houston Astros | 103 | 96.5 | -120 | -110 |
| Kansas City Royals | 58 | 69.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 80 | 82.5 | -130 | +100 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 92 | 93.5 | -120 | -110 |
| Miami Marlins | 63 | 63.5 | +110 | -140 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 96 | 86.5 | -135 | +105 |
| Minnesota Twins | 78 | 84.5 | -125 | -105 |
| New York Mets | 77 | 85.5 | -115 | -115 |
| New York Yankees | 100 | 96.5 | -135 | +105 |
| Oakland A’s | 97 | 83.5 | -120 | -110 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 80 | 89.5 | -130 | +100 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 82 | 77.5 | -120 | -110 |
| San Diego Padres | 66 | 78.5 | -105 | -125 |
| San Francisco Giants | 73 | 73.5 | -120 | -110 |
| Seattle Mariners | 89 | 71.5 | -135 | +105 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 88 | 88.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 90 | 84.5 | -125 | -105 |
| Texas Rangers | 67 | 71 | -105 | -125 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 73 | 74.5 | +105 | -135 |
| Washington Nationals | 82 | 88.5 | -130 | +100 |
All odds courtesy of Bovada on March 12
