The OVER is 5-0 in the last five games between the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves who have averaged a whopping 14.8 combined runs per game in their last five meetings. After Atlanta won 7-6 on Thursday and Washington responded with an 8-7 win on Friday, these two offenses will look to trade more blows in the third game of this four-game series this Saturday night.
- Date/Time: September 12, 6:05 p.m. ET
- Stadium: Nationals Park
- TV Coverage: MLB Network
- Sportsbook Odds: Braves -130 | O/U 9 (Line History)
- Braves vs Nationals Matchup Report
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
The Braves opened as -130 favorites on the road and have been bet down slightly to -121 favorites. Washington is a +111 home underdog and enters this game with a 7-13 record at home in 2020. The total is set at just nine runs after closing at 11 runs in each of the first two games of this series.
Starting Pitchers Analysis
The Braves promoted rookie Ian Anderson to the main roster two weeks ago, and he has performed well through his first three starts with a 2-0 record, a 2.40 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and 18 strikeouts in 15 innings of work. Anderson lasted only three innings and walked four batters in his last start against the Miami Marlins, but did limit the damage in allowing only two hits and one earned run.
Patrick Corbin allowed nine hits, four walks, and five earned runs in a start against the Braves last Sunday. The usually reliable lefty has been inconsistent this season with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in eight starts. The Nationals have lost in each of his last five trips to the mound.
Atlanta News & Notes
Atlanta racked up an incredible 29 runs in a 29-9 blowout win over the Miami Marlins on Wednesday. The offense has carried that momentum into this series with seven runs in each of the first two games against Washington. Freddie Freeman is batting .419 over Atlanta’s last eight games with nine runs, five home runs, and 21 RBI.
But while the Braves have been crushing on offense, they are only 3-5 over their last eight games due to a pitching staff and bullpen that has allowed 7.38 runs per game over that eight-game stretch. Atlanta has shown that it can hit with anyone this season, but its pitching will need to get a lot better if the Braves hope to make an impact this postseason.
Washington News & Notes
A 1-10 run through late August and early September dropped the Nationals’ record to 12-24 and essentially eliminated the team from playoff contention in 2020. But while it will in all likelihood be too little too late on the postseason front, Washington has finally started stringing some wins together with a 5-2 record over its last seven games. The Nationals have scored 6.86 runs per game over this seven-game stretch.
Trea Turner and Juan Soto have been the two bright spots in this frustrating season in Washington. Turner is batting .360 with 38 runs, 26 RBI, nine home runs, and nine stolen bases while Soto is batting .368 with 26 runs, 11 home runs, and 31 RBI. Turner has historically dealt with injury issues over his young career, so a healthy run through this shortened season would be something to build on for next year.
Betting Pick: OVER 9
Ian Anderson is a promising young prospect, and Patrick Corbin is tough to hit when at his best. But both of these pitchers are coming off of underwhelming starts and both of these offenses are red-hot. It’s hard to imagine at least one of them not racking up a handful of runs to send this one OVER nine runs.
- Atlanta is 5-2 in its last 7 road games vs. Washington.
- Washington is 6-12 in its last 18 games at home.
- The OVER is 6-1-1 in Atlanta’s last eight games.
