You want your MLB expert picks? We've got 'em.
At this point, we've got a good feel for baseball's betting markets, like how the Guardians are MLB's sneakiest underdog team or the White Sox are an automatic fade.
Here are my two MLB expert picks for today's slate of games:
MLB Expert Picks: May 1, 2024
You can jump directly to today's picks here:
Pick 1: Blue Jays (-130) vs Royals
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 3:07 pm ET
The Blue Jays are toast when they fall behind. Toronto is 1-12 this season when trailing after six innings and 2-12 when allowing four or more runs. Both are ugly numbers. That's all to say an early lead is imperative for the Blue Jays Wednesday.
And that burden falls to the starting pitchers of this contest. Seth Lugo (1.66 ERA) is on fire, but his numbers reveal some vulnerabilities. He's not especially great at striking hitters out, and right-handed batters are batting .278 against him this year with a .749 OPS. The Blue Jays will load the lineup with righties and go to work.
Chris Bassitt goes for Toronto, with one key metric that helps inch this bet in the Blue Jays' favor. The right-hander loves his loopy curveball. He uses it way too much, often to his detriment. But Kansas City can't hit the breaking ball. The Royals own an xSLG of .288 vs curves, the fourth-worst mark in baseball. That number also isn't far off from KC's actual slug (.304), suggesting Royals hitters haven't been unlucky.
With all that data in mind, I foresee a strong Bassitt outing and ultimately a Jays win backed by their bullpen.
Pick 2: Giants (-105) vs Red Sox
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 7:10 pm ET
Counted out at the beginning of the year, the Red Sox are hanging tough. Boston's battered rotation has held itself together as the lineup quietly produces on route to a 17-13 record. The Sox aren't guaranteed to be playoff-bound, but they've already outperformed expectations.
Starting pitcher Kutter Crawford might be the biggest overachiever. He leads Boston with a sparkling 1.35 ERA through six starts, though he's yet to win a game at home this season. The Red Sox are 0-3 SU when he starts at Fenway Park. That's only where our Giants bet begins.
Certain Giants hitters are raking lately, including Matt Chapman, who's picked up a base hit in 11 of his last 15 games. Chapman owns a .271 BA over his last 13 games, and he's had success against Crawford, too, batting 4-for-8 with two singles and a double.
Watch for Chapman to swing big Wednesday as his Giants squeak through the Red Sox at home.
