The Houston Astros have dropped four of Gerrit Cole’s six outings this season, including his last two in a row, yet they are a -170 favorite in the second of a four-game series with Minnesota Twins as . they come back at +145. Michael Pineda has been provided 5.4 runs of support per game, but still sports a 5.63 ERA and tonight’s total opened at 8 runs.
Standout Stats
- Minnesota is riding a four-game winning streak, its second such streak in the last 10 days. The Twins had a two-game slide breaking up the two winning streaks, both of those losses came against the Astros. They are averaging six runs per game over this span.
- Houston is just 5-7 SU and ATS in its last 12 games since rattling off 10 consecutive victories earlier this month. The Astros are scoring just 4.67 runs per game during their recent skid.
- Both pitching staffs have been fantastic recently with the Twins surrendering just 2.2 runs per game over their last five contests and the Astros have allowed 2.33 rpg over their last six. As a result of strong pitching, the UNDER has been a profitable play with five of Houston’s last six going UNDER and four of Minnesota’s last five went UNDER.
- Houston has dropped four of Gerrit Cole’s six starts this season and he is 1-4 with a 4.71 ERA thus far. Home runs have been an issue for him as he is surrendering 1.49 HR per nine innings which is the highest rate in his career and Minnesota has hit the third-most home runs this season.
- He is only stranding 55.2 percent of batters left on base which is the 18th-lowest percentage in the majors among pitchers that have thrown at least 10 innings. This means when players get on base they are coming around to score nearly 45 percent of the time.
- Cole has cost bettors -$300 based on $100 wagers on each of his starts. Additionally, Houston has provided him with just 2.67 runs of support while he’s on the hill which is the 22nd-fewest among pitchers that have made multiple starts.
- Cole is throwing his fastball just 52.7 percent of the time which is the lowest percentage in his career, while 23 percent of his pitches are sliders which is the highest in his career.
- Also, of the balls that have been hit off of him, 36.1 percent of them have been considered hard-hit balls which by far his highest percentage with his next closest coming in 2017 when 31.3 percent of the balls hit were considered hard and Minnesota ranks 12th in percentage of hard-hit balls this season.
- Michael Pineda was roughed up for four runs on eight hits over 5.1 innings against Houston his last time out on April 23. That was the second straight loss the Twins have taken with Pineda on the hill, but they won his first three outings.
- Minnesota has provided Pineda with 5.4 runs of support per game which has helped cover up his 5.63 ERA. He has his lowest runners left on base percentage in his career at 65.7 percent. This isn’t a good sign as batters are hitting .298 off of him, the highest average against in his career and he also has a career-high 1.38 WHIP thus far.
- Pineda is throwing his fastball 57.6 percent of the time which is his highest percentage since his rookie year in 2011 with the Mariners. However, with Seattle, his heater averaged 95.4 mph, but it is averaging just 92.9 mph this year.
- The Astros lineup is hitting .311 over 106 combined at-bats vs Pineda. Houston shortstop Carlos Correa has a career .563 batting average against him, including three doubles and three home runs.
- Minnesota is 17-8 against right-handed starters, while Houston is 11-11 and the Twins have scored the fourth-most runs vs RHP.
My Best Bet for Houston vs Minnesota
OVER 8
The Astros got on Pineda one week ago, roughing him up for four runs on eight hits over 5.1 innings in a 10-4 triumph. The Twins are providing him with 5.4 runs per game, attempting to cover up his 5.63 ERA. Meanwhile, Cole is having some issues getting out of jams as he is leaving just 55.2 runners on base. Lastly, Pineda’s fastball is averaging just 92.9 mph this year and I think the Astros are going to hit him hard again.
Gerrit Cole (HOU) has been provided with just 2.67 runs of support per game this season.away Minnesota is 8-2 in its last 10 games.home Carlos Correa (HOU) has a .563 batting average vs Michael Pineda.away
