After clinching a postseason berth for the second year in a row, the Houston Astros get back to the diamond to host the Los Angeles Angels tonight. The Astros will lean on workhorse Justin Verlander to stifle the Angels’ batting order and he has mowed down the Halos this season with a 2.16 ERA and 44 strikeouts over five starts. Houston is 4-1 SU and ATS in those five Verlander outings vs Los Angeles so it's not a surprise to see the Astros open up as -270 favorites in this matchup.
- Justin Verlander has a 2.16 ERA in 5 starts vs the Angels in 2018.
- The Angels are 3-10 SU and ATS in last 13 games vs Houston.
- The UNDER has hit in four of Houston’s five games vs Los Angeles with Justin Verlander as the starter.
Verlander Has Made Quick Work of the Halos
Justin Verlander gets the start tonight and he looks to be back to his dominant self after a rough August that saw him manage an ERA of 5.29 over five starts. In September, the right-hander has made three starts (21 innings) and has only given up four earned runs total in three games. His most recent outing was at home vs the Diamondbacks when he struck out 11 batters while only allowing three hits and one run.
Bettors may feel tentative of thinking the Astros are a sure thing tonight because Verlander got “roughed up” for five hits and three earned runs in his last appearance vs the Angels on August 30th. Well, if you look at his full history, you’ll see that was an anomaly. Since he has come to the Astros at the trade deadline last season, he has faced the Angels seven times and the Astros are 6-1 SU and ATS in those games. It’s also worth noting the Angels were outscored 27-10 in that span.
As for the Angels, they’ll send Jaime Barria to face an Astros’ batting order that will be without SS Carlos Correa. Barria finally broke through and beat Houston this season when he shut them out 3-0 at the end of August. He has faced the ‘Stros three times this season and while he has held his own with a 2.81 ERA in those games, they’ve lost two of them due to poor bullpen showings. If Angels’ backers are looking for a semblance of hope, it’s worth noting the Halos are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five road games with Barria as the starter.
Astros Have Owned This Divisional Matchup
In order to be successful in MLB, you need to have a great record vs divisional teams. Well, the Astros have pretty much dominated the Angels this season as they’re 10-3 SU and ATS in 13 games in 2018. One of the reasons for the Angels' swoon this season have been their pitchers as they rank 25th in ERA (4.73) since the All-Star break while allowing 69 home runs in 53 games. Maybe Jaime Barria can counter that trend but it doesn’t bode well for the Angels who are suffering through another losing season.
Totals Bettors Should Consider the UNDER
The total opened at 7.5 and the UNDER may be the profitable angle in this tilt. In Verlander’s five starts vs the Angels this season, the UNDER has hit in four of those games with the total surpassing seven runs once. When you factor in that the UNDER has hit in the last four games in this matchup with an average combined score of 7.1 runs per game, I can’t endorse an OVER pick while Verlander is starting.
My Pick is…
To take the Astros -1.5 runline. I know the UNDER may look attractive but after clobbering the Angels 11-3 last night and the fact that Houston is 4-1 SU and ATS in five games vs the Angels with Verlander on the mound, I’d rather take the superior offense than banking on bullpens.
