The red-hot Washington Nationals turn to Mad Max Scherzer to end the Brewers’ season and Milwaukee counters with Brandon Woodruff in the NL wild-card game. The Nats are a -185 favorite at Nationals Park with the Brew Crew coming back at +160 and the total set at 7.5 runs.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals (Matchup Report)
- Date/Time: October 1, 8:08 p.m. ET
- TV Coverage: TBS
- Sportsbook Odds: WSH -177/MIL +143 | O/U 8 (MLB Odds Page)
Odds Analysis
No surprise to see the Nationals open as a sizable favorite at home with their ace on the mound. Scherzer has been favored in every home start he has made in 2019 with an average line of -214.4. That being said, Washington was just 6-9 SU and 4-11 ATS over Scherzer’s 15 trips to the mound at Nationals Park.
Meanwhile, the Brewers are a road dog with Brandon Woodruff on the bump for the first time since early June when they had +120 odds at Minute Maid Park with Justin Verlander countering – makes sense. Milwaukee was 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS over Woodruff’s nine road appearances in 2019.
Washington News & Notes
The Nats closed out the season on an eight-game winning streak with each win coming at home where the NL wild-card game will play. This is the longest winning streak that Washington has had all season.
However, it hasn’t all been sunshine and rainbows with Scherzer on the hill in September. The 35-year-old sported an elevated 5.16 ERA in the month and surrendered 12 earned runs over his last 18.2 innings – could he be hitting a wall? It could be OK, though, if Washington has to turn the ball over to the bullpen early in tonight’s game as the Nats bullpen had the 10th-lowest ERA over the last two weeks at 3.07.
From an offensive perspective, Washington had the second-best batting average and scored the second-most runs through September. One of the bright spots down the stretch was first baseman Howie Kendrick, who hit .410 over 61 at-bats last month.
Milwaukee News & Notes
The Brewers appeared to be dead in the water in early September when reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich suffered a season-ending injury to his knee. However, since the star right-fielder has been out, the Brew Crew have gone 13-5, including a seven-game winning streak, although they stumble into this game as losers of their last three.
Woodruff has been solid for the Brewers all year, but it will be interesting to see how deep he pitches tonight. Since returning from the IL in mid-September, the Mississippi native has hurled just four no-hit scoreless innings over two appearances. Having a short leash isn’t anything to be concerned about for Milwaukee, though, as its bullpen ranked seventh in ERA over September.
Betting Pick: Brewers +1.5 (-135) with a Sprinkle on the Moneyline
Scherzer struggled in his last three starts, giving up four home runs and 12 earned runs overall. Additionally, the Nats haven’t had tremendous success behind their ace at home this season. Meanwhile, Woodruff has been really solid for Milwaukee all season and although he has only tossed four innings since returning from injury, he has allowed just one baserunner which came on a walk and has struck out seven.
- The Nationals are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS over their last 8 games.
- The Nationals are 6-9 SU and 4-11 ATS in Max Scherzer home starts in 2019
- The Brewers are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS against the Nationals this season.
