The three-game series between the Houston Astros and New York Yankees comes to a close from Minute Maid Park. Houston is looking for back-to-back series sweeps and a sixth triumph in a row, while New York is aiming to avoid a three-game slide. James Paxton (NYY) and Collin McHugh (HOU) take the mound with the Astros Sportsbook as a -120 favorite and the Yanks coming back at +100. The total opened at 8 runs.
Standout Stats
- Following a slow start to the 2019 campaign, Houston has rebounded quickly, currently riding a five-game winning streak, and is 7-5 SU but 3-9 ATS overall this year. Meanwhile, New York has been fairly inconsistent in the early going, posting a record of 5-6 SU and 6-5 ATS through its Sportsbook 11 contests.
- The Astros have done a great job limiting runs against this season, allowing just 38 runs through 12 games, which is the seventh-fewest in the majors, but have also scored the ninth-fewest runs. That has led to them being a great UNDER play with nine of their first 12 going UNDER. The Yankees rank ninth in fewest runs against per game, but also rank 11th in runs for per game, and they have gone OVER in six of their 11 games this year. The offense has come alive for Houston – the Astros averaged 2.14 runs per game through their first seven but have scored 5.6 in their last five.
- The Yankees send lefty James Paxton to the hill as the Canadian is set to make his third start of the season. The 30-year-old has been just OK through his first two outings, both against Baltimore. He surrendered two runs (one earned) on four hits over 5.2 innings in a 5-3 loss in his season debut, but allowed four runs on eight hits over 5.1 frames in an 8-4 win. Houston batters have had a decent read on Paxton with a combined batting average of .253 over 190 at-bats, paced by George Springer’s 8-for-30 showing vs the lefty with three homers and four RBIs. Paxton is 7-3 with a 2.89 ERA in 12 career starts vs the Astros.
- Opposing Paxton is Collin McHugh, who is making his third trip to the mound in 2019. The righty has been strong in his first two appearances. He tossed five innings and surrendered two runs on three hits while striking out nine in a 3-1 loss to Tampa Bay, then followed that up by allowing one run on three hits over six innings in a 3-2 win over Oakland. The Yankees are a combined 8-for-42 against McHugh but five of those hits came off the bats of Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks and Troy Tulowitzki, who are all on the injury list.
- The Astros are 2-1 against left-handed starters this season and sit in 10th place in the majors with a .271 batting average vs southpaws. Meanwhile, the Yankees are 5-5 vs righties this season and have the eighth-best average at .265.
My Best Bet for New York vs Houston
Houston Moneyline
The Yankees are dealing with a pile of early-season injuries, including three players who have combined for five of the lineup’s eight total hits vs McHugh. Meanwhile, Paxton has been roughed up by Astros hitters but always finds a way to limit the damage despite their solid combined batting average vs the lefty.
Houston has seemed to figure something out at the plate as it is averaging 5.6 runs per game during its ongoing five-game winning streak and I think it picks up a sixth win in a row tonight.
