By now, baseball bettors are well versed with the walking, breathing, left-handed meatball-serving fade machine that is Nationals starter Patrick Corbin.
The 33-year-old wasn’t always busted. From 2012 to 2019, he pitched to a respectable 3.80 ERA. From 2020 onward, that has devolved to a 5.84 ERA, the worst mark in MLB among pitchers with at least 200 innings during that span. In 2022, Corbin was baseball's least profitable pitcher by a wide margin.
Here are the most fruitful betting trends on “Patrick Corbin Day,” a must-know phenomenon and weekly holiday for sharps and casuals alike.
|Pitcher||Team Win/Loss||Total Runs O/U/P||Total Outs O/U||Hits Allowed O/U||Earned Runs O/U|
|LHP Patrick Corbin (WAS)||2-2 (+2.25 units)||3-0-1||2-2||3-1||2-2|
Patrick Corbin Betting Trends: Prop Bets
Let's win some money off the pain of Nationals fans (if they exist?) everywhere.
Crank OVER on Hits Allowed
The game logs tell all. Through four starts (3-1 O), this is the safest prop bet on Corbin. In 2022, he allowed six ormore hits in 21 of 31 starts. In 2023, the lefty has allowed 29 hits in 20 innings, resulting in a dreadful 13.1 H/9, somehow higher than last year's 12.4 H/9. Look at him go — credit Corbin for finding ways to outdo himself.
Hitters are currently batting .326 off Corbin, and his xBA of .329 suggests those aren't fluky hits either. His average exit velocity numbers have improved since 2022 but are still quite below average (into baseball's 33rd percentile).
I'd watch for how Corbin's slider looks the rest of the way. A season ago, his breaking ball scored a +23 run value on Baseball Savant, making it the third-worst pitch in baseball behind Chad Kuhl's sinker and Madison Bumgarner's four-seamer. So far in 2023, Corbin's slider numbers have improved dramatically (-2 run value), but now the sinker is getting peppered for a +7 run value. Yeesh. Guys are seeing the fastball well, which should make bettors even hungrier to hammer the OVER on Corbin's hits allowed.
Be Cautious of earned Runs; Wait for pockets of opportunity
The hits OVERs are guaranteed, but I'd be wary of earned runs bets. As bad as Corbin was a season ago, he allowed three runs or less in 16 of 31 starts. How is that possible? Well, when Corbin was bad, he was really bad.
For example, Corbin posted an 8.69 ERA in five starts last April; he followed that up with a 7.99 ERA in five July starts last season. All to say, wait for the bad outings to compound. If you see the New York native get shelled in back-to-back outings, then a wave of runs is likely on the way.
Patrick Corbin Betting Trends: How To Bet The Nationals
Baseball is a team sport, and Corbin's suckage bleeds into Washington's performance in the game at large.
OVERs, OVERs and more OVERs
It's no surprise when Corbin takes the mound and a swarm of runs ensue. The OVER is 3-0-1 in his first four starts thanks to his own struggles, as well as an underrated caveat: run support. So far, Corbin has received an average of 4.25 runs from the Nationals offense. Ugh, literally heaven for OVER bettors. If Corbin is getting spanked on the hill, and then Washington rallies to tie things up, then we will see more and more OVERs as the season goes on.
Remember, with Corbin, the hits OVERs are always there, but the runs come and go. With our understanding of the Nationals' run support, betting the game's OVER is smarter than betting on Corbin's earned run totals.