Shane Bieber Odds: Will He Break Records For Strikeouts?

In just his fourth season, Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Shane Bieber has already emerged as arguably the most dominant hurler in MLB.

He’s opened the 2021 season with four straight games of double-digit strikeouts, breaking a record held by legendary strikeout artist Nolan Ryan. Now, oddsmakers are offering Shane Bieber odds and props on whether he’ll have 10 or more strikeouts in his next start.

The best MLB betting sites have Bieber’s OVER/UNDER for strikeouts set at 9.5 for his next start vs the New York Yankees with the OVER at -135 and the UNDER coming back at +105. And props for how Bieber fares in his next outing aren’t the only ones available at Sportsbook.

Sportsbook

Bettors can consider season-long strikeout props for Bieber and whether he’ll exceed his career high of 259 strikeouts in a season. You can also bet on Bieber to have a truly historic campaign and throw more than 372 strikeouts or 383 strikeouts. Those numbers are relevant because they are the season bests for Randy Johnson and Nolan Ryan, considered the greatest strikeout pitchers of all time.

Read our How To Bet On Baseball guide if you’re new to baseball betting or need a refresher, and make sure to keep track of the latest odds with MLB Futures.

Will Shane Bieber Strike Out 10 Batters In His Next Start?

Odds as of April 21 at Sportsbook

For bettors seriously considering this Shane Bieber strikeout prop, it’s an interesting proposition when having to face a team like the New York Yankees to do it. The Yanks may have struggled to start the year (6-10 SU) but they still field a batting order that can chase any starting pitcher out of the game.

Despite their recent struggles, the Bronx Bombers aren’t striking out as often as it would seem. They rank 14th in MLB in strikeouts per game with Giancarlo Stanton leading the team with 20 whiffs in 53 at-bats. My fear with taking the OVER on this prop is whether Bieber will go more than six innings and his home run rate. While he is striking out tons of batters, he’s given up three homers in four starts and is facing a team that has sluggers up and down the lineup.

I’d lean to the UNDER but don’t feel great about it because Bieber is throwing so many swing-and-miss pitches (25 in his last start vs the Reds) and could probably get at least six strikeouts between Stanton and Aaron Judge (15 Ks in 54 at-bats).

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Will Shane Bieber Have More Strikeouts In A Season Than Nolan Ryan And Randy Johnson?

Odds as of April 21 at Sportsbook

Odds as of April 21 at Sportsbook

Odds as of April 21 at Sportsbook

These three props all represent what would be career milestones for Cleveland Indians pitcher Shane Bieber and his odds to pull them off increase proportionately with the degree of difficulty. The first O/U of 259 strikeouts is relevant because it’s Bieber’s career high in a season, set in 2019. Considering he had 122 strikeouts in 12 games last year, it’s safe to say he’ll ring up 260 or more Ks in a full season (barring injury) and the odds reflect that with the “Yes” at -450 and “No” at +300.

The next one on the list is for 372 strikeouts, which so happens to be the most strikeouts thrown in a season since 2000. That was done by Randy Johnson when the “Big Unit” was with the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2001. He did it in 34 starts over 249.2 innings and only three complete games. In fact, Johnson also topped 300 whiffs in 2000 with 347 and in 2002 with 334. In the last 20 years of major league baseball, the closest to come to Johnson’s exploits was Gerrit Cole in 2019 with the Houston Astros when he had 326 Ks.

As for the O/U 383 strikeouts prop for Bieber, it might be a bit of a pipe dream but since he just broke a record by Nolan Ryan, we might as well see if he can break the “Ryan Express” record for strikeouts in a season.

The Hall of Famer had the personal best of 383 strikeouts back in 1973 and did it in 41 starts and an insane 26 complete games (yes, that latter stat is correct). I would normally never tell someone to take a -775 option for a betting prop but this one is free money because there is no way Bieber will ever get to 41 starts or 331 innings of work in a season. The medical and science teams for the Indians just wouldn’t allow it.

For reference, here are the starting pitchers who led MLB in strikeouts each season since 2000:

*Shortened 60-game MLB season