It's a new week, so I'm cooking up a new prop format for my MLB picks. I'm looking to the MLB total base props this week, and kicking things off with one fade and one back.
Check out my two MLB total base prop picks for May 6th:
Pick 1: Pete Alonso UNDER 0.5 Total Bases (+130)
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 7:45 pm ET
Pete Alonso STINKS against Kyle Gibson. Despite being one of the best power hitters in baseball, the Mets slugger is hitless against Gibson in 17 career at-bats, with just three walks to six strikeouts. As well, Alonso is dreadfully hot right now, against anybody, with just one hit in his last eight games. He's seen his batting average drop from .252 to .206 in that time.
I was looking through a bunch of the Mets' hitters recent game logs, and things are just aren't looking good. Francisco Lindor is like the only New York hitter entering this week with any kind of success. So, I don't hate a fade of the Mets, generally, with the Cardinals at -125 on the moneyline.
Pick 2: Brent Rooker Over 0.5 Total Bases (-160)
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 9:40 pm ET
Brent Rooker has been one of baseball's hottest hitters in the last week, racking up seven hits in his last 16 at-bats. Four of those hits have been extra-base knocks, too.
This isn't just a bet on a hot bat, though. Rooker has been gerat against left-handed pitching in his career, hitting .250 with a .793 OPS against southpaws. Tonight, he faces Rangers lefty Andrew Heaney, who's allowed at least four hits in five of his last six starts (despite rarely pitching deep into games). I expect Rooker to get at least one total base in this contest, and I'd love a O1.5 sprinkle, too.
If you agree that Rooker is going to have a big day, it might be worth it to bet on the Athletics moneyline (+115). Oakland is 3-1 in the last four games where Rooker has more than one hit.
