Edson Barboza is a small underdog vs Sodiq Yusuff

Barboza vs Murphy Odds & Picks: Junior's Still Got It

Lerone Murphy is a -155 favorite over Edson Barboza (+130) ahead of their UFC Fight Night event on May 18.

Murphy, the surging Brit, gets narrow favorite odds vs the veteran Barboza, a testament to the competitiveness of this upcoming Apex matchup.

Let's dive into the full Barboza vs Murphy odds and betting preview below.

Barboza vs Murphy Odds

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs Murphy Odds
Edson Barboza+130
Lerone Murphy-155

Odds as of May 18

Our odds calculator suggests Murphy's -155 odds equate to an implied win probability of 60.78%, meaning a $100 bet on her pays out $164.52. Barboza's +130 underdog odds imply a 43.48% chance to win, and a $100 bet on him pays out $230. 

Barboza vs Murphy Betting Preview & Picks

Barboza, 38, keeps defying time and shutting down up-and-comers. He did it to Sodiq Yussuf and Billy Quarantillo for a nice two-fight win streak. Now the Brazilian looks to squash Murphy's momentum.

How To Bet Barboza

A prolonged striking bout nearly always favors Barboza. The key to defeating him is smothering him early or initiating a 25-minute grapplefest where his cardio fades. Anything in between favors "Junior."

On Saturday, watch how Murphy approaches this bout. If he's nervous about Barboza's power and kicking ability — he probably should be — then Edson can tee off. Barboza weathered an early storm in his last bout vs Yusuff, eventually grinding for a decision win. That same route is very possible vs Murphy.

If I'm betting Barboza, I'm doing so straight-up at his underdog status. It's too hard to predict if he'll win by KO or decision, so just take the underdog value and say thank you.

How to Bet Murphy

Murphy isn't a scrub. He has two UFC knockouts under his belt and flexed some solid wrestling chops in a few of his fights. "The Miracle" notably stopped Ricardo Ramos in his debut with some vicious top attacks. That said, Murphy doesn't possess any massive skill advantages over Barboza. That's what makes his chalk status confusing.

You need to earn respect for a favorable line over an experienced fighter such as Barboza. I think it's too early to lay Murphy at -150 odds. While the Brit is well-rounded and explosive, Barboza is levels ahead of him in both experience and knockout potential.

Barboza vs Murphy Picks

I like a unit or two on Barboza to win, especially at the current value. I'm having trouble with any props on this fight, but if you're really keen, I'd check the OVER 3.5 rounds. 

Pick: Barboza to win (+125); OVER 3.5 Rounds (-155)

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