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Nestor Cortes' Yankees are showing some woeful betting trends in the second half

It’s a story as old as time. The New York Yankees get off to a hot start; experts peg them as World Series favorites, but things either fall apart or cracks begin to emerge come August/September/October. 

But all that pain and suffering for Yanks fans doesn’t have to equate to the same despair for sports bettors. In fact, bettors should be happy! Within the Bronx Bombers’ nosedive, there’s money to be won. 

We have you covered on all the Yankees second half odds, trends and numbers that can help you win money betting against New York.

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Fade The Yankees On The Road

Yankees Record After All-star Break, By Year
YearSU 2nd-Half Record2nd-Half Profitability ($10 Bets, SU)2nd-Half Road Record
20227-12 (.368)-$77.043-9 (.250)
202146-27 (.630)+$82.2023-14 (.621)
2020*15-15 (.500)-$66.005-10 (.333)
201946-28 (.622)+$9.8720-18 (.526)
201838-29 (.567)-$89.8018-14 (.563)
201746-30 (.605)+$40.8520-18 (.526)

*No All-Star Game in 2020. Data is pulled from exact second half of 60-game season.

Data courtesy of Odds Shark's database

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There’s a significant drop-off in the Yanks’ production on the road in the second half over the last six seasons. For the most part, New York is a respectable second-half club, but its performance away from home basically never matches its record at Yankee Stadium (2021 seems to be an exception). 

Since 2017, the Yankees are 89-83 on the road in the second half. That’s just a .517 win percentage. We think there’s future value in fading New York – and we have one more X-factor for you.  

Aaron Judge, Career Home/Road Splits
LocationAVGOBPSLGOPSHRHR%
Home.301.409.6201.0291109%
Away.262.367.533.899937%

Call it the Yankee Stadium effect or just a lack of comfortability on the road, but superstar Aaron Judge is not the same hitter at away stadiums. Not only does the 30-year-old’s batting average drop 40 points, but his slugging also plummets to .530, as he can’t just muscle balls out of the park using his six-foot-seven frame. 

Hammer The OVER As Pitching Withers

The chart tells us a few things. For some reason, the Yanks’ rotation seems to stumble in June. More importantly, the data shows New York’s starting pitchers seem to do a lot worse in July-October than they do in April and May. 

How does this play into the OVER/UNDER, you might ask? Well, as tired arms start lobbing up meatballs to hitters – who, by August, have had the whole season to get their timing down – run totals start to climb. 

Yankees OVER/UNDER in 2nd Half
YearOVER Record in 2nd Half
202212-7-1
202129-41-3
202016-14
201936-35-3
201835-28-4
201733-40-2

Apart from 2021, a season in which the Yanks’ starters had a fine month of August, the second-half OVER has been a reliable bet, especially so in 2022 (12-7-1). It's only a marginal advantage on paper, but when you factor in how the rotation withers down the stretch, we like the data.

This darling group of starters the Yankees trotted out in April of this season quite simply isn’t having the same success in the dog days of summer, which allows for some juicy OVER bets as we race towards the postseason.

Bet Against The Yanks When These Pitchers Take The Mound

There have been several notorious Yankee clippers over the years, so we did our best to assemble all the starting pitchers who’ve given New York hitters fits.

Most Profitable Pitchers vs Yankees (Since Start of 2019)
Starting PitcherProfit ($10 Bets on Each Start)
Jordan Lyles+$68.80
Chris Ellis+47.50
Luis Castillo+43.30
Keegan Akin+$41.00
Adam Plutko+$40.60
Steven Matz+$36.70
Rich Hill+$35.30
Nate Karns+$32.50
Clayton Richard+$31.00
Ian Anderson+$28.70

To our great surprise, if you’d have bet $10 on every Jordan Lyles start vs the Yankees since the start of 2019, you’d have won $68.80. Lyles, a career 5.12 ERA pitcher, is no ace by any stretch of the imagination, but he’s benefitted from playing on an overachieving Orioles squad in 2022. In fact, Baltimore starters make up three of the top-five most profitable pitchers vs the Yankees.

Rich Hill is another intriguing member of the top 10 ($35.30). The 42-year-old lefty hasn’t been amazing for the Boston Red Sox this year (4.75 ERA), but he has always seemed to pitch with extra composure vs the big bad Yankees. He hasn’t thrown against the Yanks this season, but last year he won all three of his starts vs New York and posted a 2.04 ERA.

The Yanks have three more series against Boston this year. Be sure to place a wager on the BoSox if good ol’ Rich Hill is on the mound. 

Notorious Second-Half Slumpers On NYY

Lastly, it’s worth mentioning which active Yankees sluggers have struggled in the second half in their careers. This data should help you fade certain hitters for OVER/UNDER props on player hits, total bases and runs, among other betting options. 

Yankees Hitters 1st Half vs 2nd Half Career Stats
PlayerCareer OPS In 1st HalfCareer OPS in 2nd Half
Gleyber Torres.805.770
Aaron Judge.982.937
Andrew Benintendi.811.754
Aaron Hicks.722.707

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