Is Another UNDER in Store Between Thunder and Warriors?

Familiar foes lock horns at Oracle Arena when the Golden State Warriors host the Oklahoma City Thunder. The opening-night fireworks of this matchup may be limited to sparks as Thunder point guard Russell Westbrook has been ruled out due to offseason knee surgery. That does not bode well for a Thunder squad that has gone 2-9 SU and ATS in the last 11 games in this matchup.

The Warriors opened as 11.5-point favorites with the line moving to 13 after the news of Westbrook’s absence. The total opened at 222.

Thunder vs Warriors Game Center

No Westbrook Makes the Thunder Fade Material

One of the more dominant forces in the NBA, Russell Westbrook’s absence could be costly for the Thunder tonight. Since the start of the 2014-15 season, when Westbrook doesn’t play, OKC is 7-13 SU and 12-7-1 ATS in 20 games.

While that’s a winning spread record, the Thunder weren’t playing the Warriors in any of those 12 ATS wins so it may be difficult to trust Oklahoma City tonight on the spread. The next man up for the Thunder is Dennis Schroder, who was acquired from Atlanta in exchange for the sulky Carmelo Anthony. Don’t get me wrong, I think Schroder will be an excellent pickup for the grind of the latter stages of the NBA season, but matching up with point guards Steph Curry and Shaun Livingston will be a tough defensive assignment for the 25-year-old.

The Thunder’s recent history vs the Warriors isn’t encouraging either as OKC is 2-9 SU and ATS in its last 11 games vs the Dubs and 2-10 ATS in the last 12 games at Oracle Arena and Westbrook played in all of those games. The Thunder are also 2-34 SU in their last 36 games as a double-digit underdog. SHEESH!

Warriors’ Scoring Is Too Hard To Overcome

Look, I’m not going to break down a compelling case for why you should fade the Warriors tonight because the writing is on the wall for them to smoke OKC. The Dubs coasted a little bit during the regular season last year but still finished with the second-best record in the Western Conference and were the highest-scoring team in the NBA. By accomplishing that scoring feat, the Warriors have led the league in points per game for the last four seasons.

We know how Golden State has fared in this matchup and for moneyline bettors, the Warriors have been a lock in this scenario as they’re 10-0 SU in their last 10 games as double-digit favorites and 9-1 SU in their last 10 games as double-digit faves at home. However, spread bettors will point out that the Warriors are 5-5 ATS in those contests but I still can’t see how the Thunder can stay in this game for more than three quarters without their MVP.

One obvious stat that the Warriors are the cream of the crop in is three-point percentage as the Dubs ranked first by hitting 39 percent of their 28.9 three-point attempts per game last season. Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson are all healthy and each one could potentially drop 40 on a Thunder defense that allowed over 105 points per game last season.

UNDER Is the Story when These Teams Tip Off

The total opened at 225 (since dropped to 222) and the UNDER has been a profitable wager when these teams duke it out. The UNDER has hit in the last five games in this matchup with an average combined score of 209 points per game. Over a larger sample size, the UNDER has also hit in eight of the last 10 contests between these rivals with an average combined score of 211.7 points per game.

My Pick is…

To take the Warriors to cover the spread. I know there are some compelling stats that support a Thunder cover bet because of their spread record without Westbrook but that was against inferior competition. The Warriors know they’ve dropped back-to-back opening-night games to the Rockets and Spurs and I expect the Dubs to come out firing and win by 15 to 20 points.