Continuing to be at the top of the Western Conference, the Denver Nuggets will face another hot team in the West when they host the Portland Trail Blazers. The Nuggets have won 11 straight games at home and are 17-3 SU in 20 games at the Pepsi Center this season. Not to be outdone, the Blazers are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games but they’ve lost their last three games in the Rockies and are 8-10 SU in 18 away games this season.
The Nuggets opened as 6-point favorites (since moved to -4.5) with a total of 220 (since moved to 216.5).
- The Nuggets are 9-3 ATS in 12 home games vs Western Conference teams.
- The Blazers are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.
- The UNDER has hit in 8 of the Blazers’ last 10 games (Average combined score: 219).
Blazers vs Nuggets Game Center
Nuggets Are Showing They’re For Real
Coming into the season, the Nuggets weren’t really thought of as top-end team in the Western Conference. Denver missed the playoffs by one game last year and didn’t really add anyone that would seemingly move the needle. Well, what analysts didn’t project was the development of their young players such as Nikola Jokic. The center is leading all big-men in assists this season (7.5 per game) and he has three triple-doubles this month. When Jokic stuffs the stat sheet for a trip-dub, the Nuggets are 5-0 SU and ATS this season.
Stats aside, it’s the Nuggets spread record at home that has me intrigued on backing them. Denver is 14-6 ATS in 20 home games this season and 9-3 ATS in 12 games vs Western Conference teams.
The Nuggets defense is what has stood out as the biggest change this year as Denver is ranked fourth in the NBA in points allowed per game and second in the league in holding down teams on the perimeter at 33.2 percent from three. I like them to win this game outright and cover the spread even though Portland will give them a good challenge in the altitude of the Pepsi Center.
Blazers Not to Be Dismissed
A lot of people who follow the NBA probably don’t remember that Damian Lillard was first-team All-NBA last year in a time where the league has the most depth at the point guard position in its history. Dame’s numbers this season have actually taken a bit of a dip across the board but he’s shooting a career-best 38 percent from three-point range this year and has helped lead the Blazers to fourth in the West in the standings. Portland has won six of their last seven games and covered the spread in five of them.
In 12 road games vs Western Conference teams, the Blazers are 4-8 SU and ATS and have a negative point differential (-1.4). Their scoring drops by five points per game when playing on the road and while I praise Lillard for his three-point accuracy, the rest of the team doesn’t share that. The Blazers as a group are shooting five percent worse on the road compared to when playing at the Moda Center.
Totals Bettors Should Eye The UNDER
The total opened at 220 (since moved to 216.5) and while the trends point to an UNDER, I’d go with the OVER in this contest. The average combined score over the Blazers’ last 10 games is 219 and the average combined score over the Nuggets’ last 10 games is 225. While I think Denver’s defense is legit, I think the Blazers won’t be held below 100 points as that’s only happened once in their last 10 games.
My Pick Is…
To take the Nuggets to win and cover the spread. I was in on Denver when the spread was -6 and now with it being down to -4.5, I have no problem endorsing the Nuggets in this one.
