The No. 24 Houston Cougars lay their undefeated 8-0 record on the line as they tip off against the 7-2 LSU Tigers from the Fertitta Center. Houston has dropped its last two contests with LSU but earned a 105-98 victory the last time it hosted the Tigers in 2015. The Cougars are a 6-point favorite in tonight’s game with the total Sportsbook at 141 points.
- The total has gone UNDER in each of Houston’s last six games (avg. combined score: 127.17).
- LSU is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five games against Houston.
- Houston is allowing the seventh-fewest points per game in the nation this season (57.8).
Cougars’ smothering defense leading to success
There was a feeling of angst for Houston fans heading into this season after the team lost two of its top three scorers from last year with the graduation of Rob Gray (19.3 ppg) and Devin Davis (10.9 ppg). The Cougars have stormed out of the gate to a perfect 8-0 record, putting those doubts to rest, but they also have had the 81st-easiest strength of schedule in the early stages. They are relying on their stout defense to put teams away as they give up the seventh-fewest points per game at 57.8, while offensively they are averaging 75.4 ppg which is the 119th-most. Junior guard Armoni Brooks and senior guard Corey Davis Jr. are leading the charge offensively as they are both averaging 16.5 points per game, with Davis shooting 90.5 percent from the charity stripe.
The Cougars do a lot of their offensive damage from beyond the arc, averaging 10.2 treys per game to rank 14th in the nation, and also take the 16th-most attempts at 28.8 with Brooks shooting 45.8 percent from long distance. As mentioned above, though, the defense has been stifling, most notably holding their opponents to a shooting percentage of just 27.5 from three-point range. Although Houston is strong defensively, rebounding is a bit of an issue. The team is allowing opponents to grab 9.5 offensive boards per game, the 101st-most in college basketball, which isn’t good to give a team like LSU second opportunities.
Tigers playing their first true road game of the season
LSU was ranked in the AP Top 25 from the preseason through the first two weeks of the regular season, but back-to-back losses in the Advocare Invitational has had them on the outside looking in ever since. The Tigers have a perfect 6-0 record at home, but when they had a slate of neutral-site games for the Advocare, the club went just 1-2, falling 79-76 in overtime to then-No. 14 Florida State and then getting swarmed 90-77 by Oklahoma State. Unlike Houston, LSU has a much more aggressive offense and ranks 31st in the nation with 82.1 points per game, including the 14th-best shooting percentage of 49.7.
The most dangerous aspect of the Tigers’ play is their depth, with nine players averaging more than 15 minutes per game. Each of those players is averaging at least five points per game and only one is shooting less than 40 percent from the floor. They create plenty of offensive possessions by attacking the opposing ball carrier as they average 9.7 steals per game, which is the sixth-most in the NCAA, and that has jumped to 11.3 steals over their last three games. Additionally, LSU grabs 11.3 offensive boards per game, which is the 29th-most in college basketball, and the Tigers will be licking their chops going against Houston, which surrenders 9.5 offensive boards per game.
Is the OVER the bet to make?
We have a battle between a top-ranked defensive squad and a strong offensive team and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 141 points. Houston has gone UNDER in each of its last six games with an average combined score of 127.17, while LSU has gone UNDER in five of its last seven games. Additionally, four of the last five meetings between these two schools have gone UNDER, but the last three have gone well over tonight’s Sportsbook total of 141 points. Although Houston’s defense has been smothering teams, I think its few issues are areas that LSU’s offense will take advantage of and it may pile on the points to carry the OVER.
My Take on LSU vs Houston
I like LSU +6 in this game. The Tigers are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five matches against the Cougars and covered the spread in their only game this season as an underdog. Additionally, Houston has had the 81st-easiest strength of schedule thus far and I think its numbers may be a little inflated, with LSU representing the highest-scoring offense it has faced to date. Meanwhile, the Tigers grab the 29th-most offensive boards per game and the Cougars allow the 101st-most offensive rebounds, while LSU averages the sixth-most steals per game and Houston gives up 6.5 steals per game, the 133rd-most in the nation. Overall, I think the Cougars are going to continue giving additional opportunities to the Tigers and that will keep the game close and ultimately LSU will cover the 6 points.
