Odds Shark experts Tony Farmer, David Caraviello rebounded on day one of the March Madness round of 32, going a collective 3-3. Somehow, someway, we lost on the Oregon Ducks at +5.5 in their double overtime loss to Creighton. With some unbelievable matchups on the NCAAB Tournament for Sunday, here are our expert picks of the day:
Nick's Pick: Baylor -5
Martchup: Baylor vs Clemson
Baylor are one of the top offensive teams in the country. The Bears score over 80 points a game and knock down 40% of their threes. Scott Drew's squad blasted Colgate off the floor in the first round, shooting 53% from three and putting 92 points on the board.
On the flip side Clemson ran all over New Mexico, playing a ragged brand of defense and blowing out the Lobos. But, the Tigers don't have the shooting chops (35% from three) or rebounding ability to hang with the Bears. I also love the UNDER 145 in this one as both these teams rank in the bottom third in the nation in pace.
Nick's Pick: Duke -7.5
Matchup: Duke vs James Madison
The Dukes' are a great story, but the Blue Devils boast an offensive arsenal will the capabilities to blow James Madison off the floor. According to Haslametrics, Duke outranks James Madison by nearly 10 points per 100 possessions. They're an elite shooting team, sitting 18th in the country in field goal percentage versus the average opponent and sixth in the nation knocking down 39.5% of threes.
#NCAATournament Future #AtlantaHawks 7’ Kyle Filipowski showing that he can effect the game on the DEFENSIVE side of the ball. #TrueToAtlanta
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Kyle Filipowski scored just three points against Vermont in the first round blowout. However, he'll be much more involved against a James Madison team that allows opponents to shoot over 56% from inside the paint. I like Filipowski to score 20-plus and the Blue Devil to run away with the victory.
David's Pick: James Madison +7.5
Matchup: Duke vs James Madison
JMU is in no way a No. 12 seed, a fact made clear in the Dukes’ wire-to-wire dismantling of No. 5 seed Wisconsin in the tournament’s first round on Friday. Winners of 14 in a row, James Madison now gets a Duke team that seems unable to exert its size advantage over smaller foes—evident in a ragged first round victory over Vermont in which big man Kyle Filipowski managed zero field goals. JMU has the personnel to match up with Duke on the perimeter, and if the Dukes start hitting those mid-range jumpers, watch out.
David's Pick: Alabama vs Grand Canyon OVER 168.5
Matchup: Alabama vs Grand Canyon
The Crimson Tide looked dazzling on offense in its romp over College of Charleston, slashing to the basket at will and putting up 109 points—the most by any team in the tournament’s first round. The issue is they also gave up 96, shattering the total of 173 in the process. Alabama has gone over the total in 76% of its games, the highest rate of any team in the Big Dance, including 11 of its last 12. The Antelopes can run as well, averaging over 78 points per game.
Tony's Pick: James Madison +7
Matchup: Duke vs James Madison
James Madison enters this game riding the nations longest active win streak (14) and while it’s come vs. mostly inferior opponents, the Dukes have proven they can hang with quality opponents. James Madison opened the season with a road win at Michigan State and dominated Wisconsin from start to finish in Round 1. Seven points in this spot is generous and, keep in mind, the Dukes have only lost a game by more than six points once this season.
James Madison has four seniors (TJ Bickerstaff, Noah Dreidel, Julien Wooden, and Michael Green) and a junior (Terrence Edwards) who play significant minutes, while Duke only has one senior (Jeremy Roach) who played more than 2 minutes in Round 1. The Blue Devils, who are 3-3 in their last six games while traveling, rely on significant minutes from three sophomores and three freshmen.
Duke features the 17th best 3-point shooting in the country, but James Madison’s defense has been elite at limiting 3-pointers (28.8%).
Tony's Pick: Tyler Kolek OVER 7.5 Assists
Matchup: Marquette vs Colorado
Tyler Kolek averages 7.8 assists per game this season, but he’s averaging 13 assists in the last three games that he’s been fully healthy. This includes 11 assists in Round 1 vs. Western Kentucky.
Kolek played a game-high 38 minutes vs. The Hilltoppers proving to the country he’s healthy and proving to his coach he has his wind back. The Golden Eagles offense goes through Kolek and the recipients of his passes should be able to put it in the bucket today vs. a Colorado defense that can be vulnerable inside. Colorado hasn’t played vs. an opponent who can dish it out like Kolek, but the next closest comparison would be Colorado State’s Isaiah Stevens who nearly doubled his season average with 11 assists when he faced them.
