Memphis Tigers vs UCF Knights

 A week ago, the UCF Knights were shooting for their second consecutive undefeated season and even had an outside shot at reaching the national playoff. Now, after losing superstar quarterback McKenzie Milton to a season-ending knee injury, the Knights may simply have their hands full winning the American Athletic Conference.

Despite riding a 24-game winning streak, No. 9 UCF (11-0 overall, 8-0 AAC) is just a 5-point favorite over the visiting Memphis Tigers, who gave the Knights all they could handle earlier this year in a 31-30 loss to UCF in Memphis. The Tigers (8-4 overall, 5-3 AAC) also played UCF tough in last year’s AAC title clash, extending the Knights to overtime before succumbing 62-55. Memphis stamped its ticket to this year’s conference final with a 52-31 win over the Houston Cougars last week.

Memphis vs UCF Game Center

GROUND GAME HAS KEYED TIGERS’ SUCCESS THIS YEAR

The Tigers have relied on their powerful running game all season, so it’s only fitting that they won the AAC West last week on the ground. Tied 31-31 with Houston at the end of three quarters, Memphis converted a fourth-and-one in its own territory by pounding the ball up the middle with star running back Darrell Henderson, then continued to use that approach the rest of the way. The result? Memphis outscored the Cougars 21-0 in the final frame despite not throwing a single pass in the entire fourth quarter.

Memphis finished the regular season with 3,311 rushing yards, setting an AAC single-season record and ranking sixth in the nation with more than 275 yards per game. Henderson also rewrote the conference record books with 1,699 yards, doing so with a robust average of 8.6 yards per carry and reaching the end zone on 19 occasions.

That ground game promises to serve Memphis well in the conference title game, especially facing a UCF team that was gouged for 214 rushing yards per game this season. The Tigers enjoyed plenty of success against the Knights’ run defense during their regular-season meeting, collecting 281 yards and a 5.4 average per carry.

CAN KNIGHTS OFFENSE CONTINUE TO CLICK WITHOUT SUPERSTAR QB?

Losing your quarterback in the regular-season finale would be tough for any team. But losing a perennial Heisman candidate who has scored the most touchdowns of any active FBS player over the last two seasons has to be absolutely devastating for the Knights.

They picked up the pieces and moved on after Milton suffered his knee injury on a third-down run in the second quarter last week against South Florida, outscoring the host Bulls 21-7 in the second half. But UCF wasn’t able to generate much of a passing attack behind backup QB Darriel Mack, who completed just five of 14 passes for 81 yards and failed to throw for a touchdown.

The bright spot for the Knights is that their potent attack isn’t completely reliant on the passing game. In fact, UCF rushed for more yards per game (270.8) than they averaged through the air (261.7) this season. And Mack may actually be a better runner than Milton, averaging 7.1 yards per rush attempt this season compared to Milton’s 3.9. Mack scrambled 10 times for 51 yards last week against USF.

I’M ON THE TIGERS TO SNAP UCF’S STREAK

UCF coach Josh Huepel insists his Knights are not a one-man team, and you’ve got to admire the way UCF finished strong last week against USF. But the Tigers are not the Bulls, and I think Milton’s injury is going to be too much for UCF to overcome.

The Tigers have everything they need to pull off the outright win here – a potent run game that can chew clock and keep the UCF offense off the field, a decent run defense that will force the Knights to make some plays through the air, experience of being in last year’s conference final and motivation to avenge their recent losses to the Knights. It’s been an incredible run by UCF over the last couple of seasons, but I think the 24-game streak ends here. I’m on Memphis +5, and I’m also grabbing a piece of the Tigers moneyline at +175.