Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs

You know what’s fun? Watching the Kansas City Chiefs play football. You know what’s also fun? Watching the Cincinnati Bengals play football. I also find laying on the couch uninterrupted for several hours on Sunday nights to be fun, so it looks like we’ve got a threesome of fun lined up on Sunday night when the Bengals go to Kansas City hoping to hand the Chiefs their first ATS loss of the season. KC opened as a 6-point favorite and the game features the highest total of the week at 58.5 points.

Spread Analysis

If you’re thinking the 6-point spread favors Kansas City, you might be on to something. The Chiefs’ five wins this season have come by an average of 9.2 points and they’ve won their two home games by an average of 13.5 points. Their offense is hard to keep up with for numerous reasons, but perhaps flying under the radar is that they’ve only committed five turnovers, which ties them for the second-fewest in the league.

As for the Bengals, there are some red flags that they might be crashing back to earth after a hot start. Over their last three games, they rank 30th in net yards per play. They’re 2-1 SU during this stretch, but the wins weren’t exactly convincing (a shootout that could have gone either way vs the banged-up Falcons, and benefiting from two defensive touchdowns in the fourth quarter vs Miami).

To Cincinnati’s credit, however, it has the top red-zone offense in the league, ranking first in red-zone TD scoring efficiency at 75 percent. Kansas City isn’t far off at 69.23 percent. While the offenses are clicking in the red zone, the defenses are crumbling, as they both rank in the bottom 10 in the league in opponents’ TD scoring percentage in the red zone, which leads us to…

Can’t-Stop Offenses vs Can’t-Stop-Anything Defenses

After the Chiefs combined with the Patriots to score 83 points last Sunday night, all signs point to another high-scoring affair this Sunday vs the Bengals. The teams are a combined 8-4 OVER/UNDER on the season and, as a result, the game has the distinction of having the highest total on the Week 7 board. In New England last week, the total was set at 59.5, which is the highest total of the season thus far.

If the high number is scaring you off, maybe you should reconsider. Kansas City games this season have had an average combined score of 64.5 — the highest of any team this season. Cincinnati, meanwhile, isn’t very far off at 55.33 combined points per game, which ranks sixth.

The offense for each team is obviously what stands out, but neither defense could stop a nosebleed, or even a runny nose or any other type of nose-related inconvenience. Perhaps it’s because their opponent is always playing catch-up, but the Chiefs rank 30th in opponents’ yards per play, while they’ve also allowed the most passing plays of 20-plus yards with 31. As a result, they’re allowing the most yards per game in the league and Cincy isn’t far behind, ranking fourth-worst.

All of the above considered, betting the OVER would be my recommendation if you’re looking to make a totals bet.

Bengals are Brutal in Night Games

Cincinnati has won just two of its last 10 night games and Andy Dalton has a history of shrinking under the bright lights. Dalton has led the Bengals to a 6-13 SU record in prime-time games in his career while posting an 81.1 QB rating, which is easily his worst of any time slot.

Kansas City has been the opposite, thriving in the spotlight by posting a 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS record in its last 12 night games. Andy Reid-led teams have been a good team to back in prime time, as they’ve gone 44-31 ATS (58.6 percent) during his career as a head coach.

My best bet for Bengals vs Chiefs

I’m on Kansas City to cover the spread. I’ve mentioned other teams’ inability to keep up with the Chiefs this season, and I think this will be the case again on Sunday night. Given the Bengals’ history of underperforming in night games and the Chiefs’ ability to protect the ball combined with their dynamic offense, I feel very comfortable taking them to cover the 6 points.