NFL

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots

Green Bay
Packers
3 - 3 - 1
New England
Patriots
6 - 2
November 04, 2018, 8:20 PM EST
 | Gillette Stadium

Game Preview

Green Bay
Packers
3 - 3 - 1
New England
Patriots
6 - 2
November 04, 2018, 8:20 PM EST
 | Gillette Stadium
  • In terms of head-to-head quarterback matchups in the NFL, it doesn’t get any better than Aaron Rodgers vs Tom Brady. The two will lead their teams into action for Week 9’s edition of Sunday Night Football with the Packers looking for their first road win of the season, while the Patriots will be looking to remain undefeated at home.

    This will be just the second time the two quarterbacks have shared the field as starters. The Packers won the first game on November 30, 2014 by a score of 26-21, covering the spread with the total going UNDER. This time around, the Patriots find themselves as a 5.5-point favorite at most books with a total of 56.5.

    Shark Bites
    • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Packers’ last eight night games.
    • The Patriots are 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games at home (avg. winning margin: 14.82).
    • The Packers are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games on the road (avg. losing margin: 11.0).

    Packers vs Patriots Game Center

    Spread Analysis

    After Sportsbook at -6, the Patriots dropped to -5.5 at the midweek point. Over their last 21 home games, they’ve only been a favorite smaller than this on two occasions (this year at -3.5 vs Kansas City and last season at -2.5 vs Atlanta). New England is on an incredible roll at home, winning 11 straight games with nine of those wins coming by at least seven points. Over that stretch, the Patriots went 9-2 ATS which adds to a multiple-season trend that’s seen them go 23-8-3 ATS over their last 34 home games.

    As for the Packers, this is already the fourth time this season that they’ve been an underdog, which is a clear sign that they’re no longer considered an elite team. They went 0-2-1 SU in those games, but 2-1 ATS. Another concern for Green Bay is a serious drop-off in road games with the team going just 3-9 SU and 5-7 ATS in its last 12. The Pack lost by seven or more in seven of these games, but perhaps coming within two points of the Super Bowl favorite Rams last week is a sign of hope for the second half.

    These Offenses Get Loaded at Night

    Nighttime is the best time to get lit and both of these offenses tend to light up opposing defenses in night games with both trending OVER once the sun goes down. Green Bay has gone OVER in seven of its last eight night games including the season opener vs the Bears, while the Patriots have gone OVER in seven of their last eight night games at home.

    It hasn’t been a pretty year for the Green Bay defense, especially on the road where it’s allowing 30.3 points per game, which is bad enough for fifth-worst in the NFL. The Packers have allowed 29 or more points five times already this season and if you exclude their shutout of the Bills, they’ve allowed 28.83 points per game.

    As for the Patriots, they’re absolutely clicking on offense, especially at home. They’re averaging 39.67 points per game over their last three home games and 36.4 points per game over their last five overall. Considering New England’s dynamite numbers at home and the struggling Packers D, bettors should consider an OVER bet on the Patriots team total which was set at 30.5 as of Wednesday.

    With the total set on the high end at 56.5, bettors will be interested to know that both teams’ average combined score in games this season is below that number, at 53 for the Patriots and 49.71 for the Packers. Keep in mind that they both played the offensively challenged Bills, though.

    Which QB is better?

    It’s close, but Aaron Rodgers is having a more efficient season despite being pressured a lot more than Brady. The Packers have allowed 24 sacks and 48 QB hits while the Patriots have allowed just 11 sacks and 34 QB hits. Even with the leakier offensive line, Rodgers has thrown just one interception to Brady’s seven and has a higher QB rating. A clear argument can also be made that Brady has a more talented group of pass catchers and a better rushing attack to lean on. As a result — Aaron Rodgers is better than Tom Brady.

    My Best Bet

    I’m a bit torn between the Patriots spread and the OVER. I like both, but I don’t love both, so the best course of action is a 6-point teaser, bringing the Patriots to EVEN and OVER to 50.5. Enjoy the game!

Odds

Sunday, November 4 Sun Nov 4


Opening
Current

Spread
Moneyline
O/U
Opening
+6
-105
+241
o57.5
-110
-6
-115
-269
u57.5
-110
Spread
Moneyline
O/U
Current
+5
-105
+185
o56
-109
-5
-115
-215
u56
-111

Edge Finder

25.56
Total Score
26.61
250.61
Passing Yards
226.33
109.28
Rushing Yards
124.39
32:50
Time on Field
30:31
62.56
Number of Plays
61.83
5.75
Yards Per Play
5.67
25.56
Total Score
26.61
3.22
First Quarter
4.28
9.56
Second Quarter
8.11
6.17
Third Quarter
4.67
6.44
Fourth Quarter
9.56
250.61
Passing Yards
226.33
34.56
Pass Attempts
31.83
23.44
Pass Completions
21.56
2.11
Sacks
1.72
13.33
Sack Yards
14.28
10.69
Yards Per Pass
10.50
109.28
Rushing Yards
124.39
25.89
Rush Attempts
28.28
4.22
Yards Per Rush
4.40
0.39
Interceptions
0.83
1.11
Fumbles
1.11
0.39
Fumbles Lost
0.56
0.78
Total Turnovers
1.39
4.11
Penalties
5.56
39.06
Penalty Yards
49.33
32:50
Time on Field
30:31
62.56
Number of Plays
61.83
5.75
Yards Per Play
5.67
3.28
Punts
3.06
45.81
Punt Average
44.70
53.94
Return Yards
71.11

Head To Head

GB
Stat Type NE
4-2
Record
2-4
4-1-1
ATS
1-4-1
2-4
O/U
2-4
24.00
Score
21.33
122.33
Rush Yds
92.33
31.67
Pass Attempts
36.33
58.42
Completion %
57.80
204.67
Passing Yds
207.00
327
Total Yds
299.33
0.67
Turnovers
2.17
GB
Stat Type NE
1-2
Record
2-1
2-1
ATS
1-2
1-2
O/U
1-2
17.67
Score
29.00
105.67
Rush Yds
106.33
34.00
Pass Attempts
30.00
55.88
Completion %
63.33
216.67
Passing Yds
202.33
322.33
Total Yds
308.67
1.00
Turnovers
0.33
Nov 30/14 (1 of 10)
GB
Stat Type NE
Home
Away
26
Score
21
-1.5
ATS
+1.5
57.5 o
O/U
57.5 u
130
Rush Yds
84
38
Pass Attempts
35
63.16
Completion %
62.86
348
Passing Yds
236
478
Total Yds
320
0
Turnovers
0
Dec 19/10 (2 of 10)
GB
Stat Type NE
Away
Home
27
Score
31
+14.5
ATS
-14.5
44 o
O/U
44 u
143
Rush Yds
113
37
Pass Attempts
24
64.86
Completion %
62.50
226
Passing Yds
136
369
Total Yds
249
2
Turnovers
0
Nov 19/06 (3 of 10)
GB
Stat Type NE
Home
Away
0
Score
35
+6
ATS
-6
46 o
O/U
46 u
44
Rush Yds
122
27
Pass Attempts
31
33.33
Completion %
64.52
76
Passing Yds
235
120
Total Yds
357
1
Turnovers
1
Oct 13/02 (4 of 10)
GB
Stat Type NE
Away
Home
28
Score
10
+6
ATS
-6
49 o
O/U
49 u
158
Rush Yds
123
27
Pass Attempts
44
62.96
Completion %
54.55
143
Passing Yds
166
301
Total Yds
289
0
Turnovers
4
Oct 27/97 (5 of 10)
GB
Stat Type NE
Away
Home
28
Score
10
+1.5
ATS
-1.5
45 o
O/U
45 u
144
Rush Yds
69
34
Pass Attempts
36
67.65
Completion %
55.56
227
Passing Yds
255
371
Total Yds
324
1
Turnovers
4
Jan 26/97 (6 of 10)
GB
Stat Type NE
Home
Away
35
Score
21
-14
ATS
+14
49.5 o
O/U
49.5 u
115
Rush Yds
43
27
Pass Attempts
48
51.85
Completion %
52.08
208
Passing Yds
214
323
Total Yds
257
0
Turnovers
4
Oct 2/94 (7 of 10)
GB
Stat Type NE
Away
Home
16
Score
17
+3
ATS
-3
44.5 o
O/U
44.5 u
0
Rush Yds
0
0
Pass Attempts
0
52.08
Completion %
52.08
0
Passing Yds
0
0
Total Yds
0
0
Turnovers
0
Oct 9/88 (8 of 10)
GB
Stat Type NE
Home
Away
45
Score
3
+2.5
ATS
-2.5
39 o
O/U
39 u
0
Rush Yds
0
0
Pass Attempts
0
52.08
Completion %
52.08
0
Passing Yds
0
0
Total Yds
0
0
Turnovers
0
Sep 8/85 (9 of 10)
GB
Stat Type NE
Away
Home
20
Score
26
+4
ATS
-4
45 o
O/U
45 u
0
Rush Yds
0
0
Pass Attempts
0
52.08
Completion %
52.08
0
Passing Yds
0
0
Total Yds
0
0
Turnovers
0
Oct 1/79 (10 of 10)
GB
Stat Type NE
Home
Away
27
Score
14
ATS
O/U
0
Rush Yds
0
0
Pass Attempts
0
52.08
Completion %
52.08
0
Passing Yds
0
0
Total Yds
0
0
Turnovers
0

Team Records

GB
Record NE
3-3-1
All
6-2
3-0-1
Home
4-0
0-3
Away
2-2
3-4
ATS
5-3
2-2
ATS Home
3-1
1-2
ATS Away
2-2
5-2
O/U
4-4
3-1
O/U Home
2-2
2-1
O/U Away
2-2
GB
Record NE
2-3-1
All
5-1
2-0-1
Home
4-0
0-3
Away
1-1
2-4
ATS
4-2
1-2
ATS Home
3-1
1-2
ATS Away
1-1
5-1
O/U
3-3
3-0
O/U Home
2-2
2-1
O/U Away
1-1
GB
Record NE
1-1-1
All
2-0
1-0-1
Home
1-0
0-1
Away
1-0
1-2
ATS
2-0
1-1
ATS Home
1-0
0-1
ATS Away
1-0
0-0
O/U
0-0
0-0
O/U Home
0-0
0-0
O/U Away
0-0
GB
Record NE
3-3-1
All
6-2
3-0-1
Home
4-0
0-3
Away
2-2
3-4
ATS
5-3
2-2
ATS Home
3-1
1-2
ATS Away
2-2
5-2
O/U
4-4
3-1
O/U Home
2-2
2-1
O/U Away
2-2

Gametime Weather

Weather
8:00pm Partly Cloudy
4ºC / 39ºF
79% Humidity
2% Precipitation
39% Cloud Cover
Wind Impact Stadium Type Open
Field Image
Arrow Image 1
mph

Injuries

NamePositionInj Desc
No Reported Injuries
NamePositionInj Desc
No Reported Injuries

Last 10 Games

DateOppScoreSULine/TotalATSOFF. RUSHOFF. PASSOFF. TOTALDEF. RUSHDEF. PASSDEF. TOTALTO
Oct 28, 2018LAR27-29L+7.5/57W/U1062533591352814161
Oct 15, 2018SF33-30W-9/46.5L/O116405521174227401-3
Oct 7, 2018DET23-31L+1/50L/O98423521941702643
Sep 30, 2018BUF22-0W-9/44W/U1412824235887145-1
Sep 23, 2018WAS17-31L-2.5/46L/O1002403401662203860
Sep 16, 2018MIN29-29T+1.5/45W/O9825335168412480-1
Sep 9, 2018CHI24-23W-7/45L/O693013701391552941
Dec 31, 2017DET11-35L+7.5/44.5L/O103153256513053564
Dec 23, 2017MIN0-16L+8.5/40.5L/U1131262391121242362
Dec 17, 2017CAR24-31L+2.5/46.5L/O1202643841512363874
View Game Logs
DateOppScoreSULine/TotalATSOFF. RUSHOFF. PASSOFF. TOTALDEF. RUSHDEF. PASSDEF. TOTALTO
Oct 29, 2018BUF25-6W-13.5/44W/U7631138746287333-2
Oct 21, 2018CHI38-31W-2/49W/O1082733811343194531
Oct 14, 2018KC43-40W-3.5/59.5L/O17332750094352446-1
Oct 4, 2018IND38-24W-10.5/50W/O9734143884355439-1
Sep 30, 2018MIA38-7W-6.5/50.5W/U175274449561161720
Sep 23, 2018DET10-26L-7/55L/U891202091592554140
Sep 16, 2018JAC20-31L-2/44.5L/O82220302104377481-1
Sep 9, 2018HOU27-20W-6.5/49.5W/U1222673891671583251
Feb 4, 2018PHI33-41L-4.5/49L/O1135006131643745380
Jan 21, 2018JAC24-20W-8/45.5L/U462983441012733741
View Game Logs