Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots

In terms of head-to-head quarterback matchups in the NFL, it doesn’t get any better than Aaron Rodgers vs Tom Brady. The two will lead their teams into action for Week 9’s edition of Sunday Night Football with the Packers looking for their first road win of the season, while the Patriots will be looking to remain undefeated at home.

This will be just the second time the two quarterbacks have shared the field as starters. The Packers won the first game on November 30, 2014 by a score of 26-21, covering the spread with the total going UNDER. This time around, the Patriots find themselves as a 5.5-point favorite at most books with a total of 56.5.

Packers vs Patriots Game Center

Spread Analysis

After Sportsbook at -6, the Patriots dropped to -5.5 at the midweek point. Over their last 21 home games, they’ve only been a favorite smaller than this on two occasions (this year at -3.5 vs Kansas City and last season at -2.5 vs Atlanta). New England is on an incredible roll at home, winning 11 straight games with nine of those wins coming by at least seven points. Over that stretch, the Patriots went 9-2 ATS which adds to a multiple-season trend that’s seen them go 23-8-3 ATS over their last 34 home games.

As for the Packers, this is already the fourth time this season that they’ve been an underdog, which is a clear sign that they’re no longer considered an elite team. They went 0-2-1 SU in those games, but 2-1 ATS. Another concern for Green Bay is a serious drop-off in road games with the team going just 3-9 SU and 5-7 ATS in its last 12. The Pack lost by seven or more in seven of these games, but perhaps coming within two points of the Super Bowl favorite Rams last week is a sign of hope for the second half.

These Offenses Get Loaded at Night

Nighttime is the best time to get lit and both of these offenses tend to light up opposing defenses in night games with both trending OVER once the sun goes down. Green Bay has gone OVER in seven of its last eight night games including the season opener vs the Bears, while the Patriots have gone OVER in seven of their last eight night games at home.

It hasn’t been a pretty year for the Green Bay defense, especially on the road where it’s allowing 30.3 points per game, which is bad enough for fifth-worst in the NFL. The Packers have allowed 29 or more points five times already this season and if you exclude their shutout of the Bills, they’ve allowed 28.83 points per game.

As for the Patriots, they’re absolutely clicking on offense, especially at home. They’re averaging 39.67 points per game over their last three home games and 36.4 points per game over their last five overall. Considering New England’s dynamite numbers at home and the struggling Packers D, bettors should consider an OVER bet on the Patriots team total which was set at 30.5 as of Wednesday.

With the total set on the high end at 56.5, bettors will be interested to know that both teams’ average combined score in games this season is below that number, at 53 for the Patriots and 49.71 for the Packers. Keep in mind that they both played the offensively challenged Bills, though.

Which QB is better?

It’s close, but Aaron Rodgers is having a more efficient season despite being pressured a lot more than Brady. The Packers have allowed 24 sacks and 48 QB hits while the Patriots have allowed just 11 sacks and 34 QB hits. Even with the leakier offensive line, Rodgers has thrown just one interception to Brady’s seven and has a higher QB rating. A clear argument can also be made that Brady has a more talented group of pass catchers and a better rushing attack to lean on. As a result — Aaron Rodgers is better than Tom Brady.

My Best Bet

I’m a bit torn between the Patriots spread and the OVER. I like both, but I don’t love both, so the best course of action is a 6-point teaser, bringing the Patriots to EVEN and OVER to 50.5. Enjoy the game!