NFL

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Los Angeles
Chargers
10 - 3
Kansas City
Chiefs
11 - 2
December 13, 2018, 8:20 PM EST
 | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Game Preview

Los Angeles
Chargers
10 - 3
Kansas City
Chiefs
11 - 2
December 13, 2018, 8:20 PM EST
 | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
  • With both teams requiring late-game heroics to escape Week 14 with a W, the Los Angeles Chargers head to Arrowhead Stadium to try to knock off the division-leading Kansas City Chiefs. These teams are the toast of the AFC with a combined 21-5 SU and 15-10-1 ATS record in 26 games but it’s the Chiefs who have played the Big Brother role in this rivalry, winning nine of the last 10 games in this matchup (8-2 ATS).

    The Chiefs opened as 3.5-point favorites with a total of 56.5 (since moved to 53.5).

    SHARK BITES
    • The Chiefs lead the NFL in points per game at 36.2.
    • The Chargers are 5-1 SU and ATS in 6 road games this season.
    • The OVER has hit in 4 of the Chiefs’ last 5 games.

    Chargers vs Chiefs Game Center

    Chiefs Offense Still Elite With New Running Backs

    It may have taken four quarters and four minutes of overtime but the Chiefs offense proved once again in Week 14 that it is near-impossible to stop. KC was tested early and often by the Ravens’ formidable defense but even they succumbed to Patrick Mahomes, who has regained his status as the betting favorite to win NFL MVP. With that win, the Chiefs now lead the NFL in points per game at 36.2 and are first with 43 passing touchdowns. Side note: Mahomes needs to throw 13 more TDs over the next three games to break the all-time record for touchdown passes in a season.

    It speaks to how amazing the Chiefs offense is when they’re 11-2 SU (8-4-1 ATS) in 13 games this season despite ranking near the bottom in key defensive categories:

    • 27 points allowed per game – ranked 27th
    • 127.8 rushing yards allowed per game – ranked 25th
    • 281.8 passing yards allowed per game – ranked 32nd
    • 338 first downs allowed – ranked 32nd
    • 39.6 percent for opponent third-down completion – ranked 21st
    • 64 percent for opponent fourth-down completion – ranked 26th

    That does not paint a pretty picture, but to be fair, the Chiefs have been getting by with splash plays as evidenced by their 42 sacks (ranked second) and 19 forced fumbles (also second). Obviously, the sacks and fumbles aren’t sustainable but scoring at that clip easily covers up the yardage issues.

    Then once you dive into the matchup itself, the Chiefs seem like a no-brainer to win and cover based on recent history. Kansas City has won nine straight in this matchup by an average margin of 12.1 points and hasn’t lost to the Chargers in almost five years (December 23, 2013). Then when you look at how the Chiefs have performed at Arrowhead Stadium this season (6-0 SU with an average win margin of 14 points), it’s hard to pick against them with such a small number of points to cover the spread.

    If bettors are looking for any reason to fade the Chiefs, it’s worth noting that both Sammy Watkins and Tyreek Hill are on the mend with Watkins ruled out and Hill limited due to a foot injury.

    Chargers are the New Road Warriors of the NFL

    Coming off an impressive win at Heinz Field after being down 14 points at halftime, the Chargers had to be feeling good at home as 17-point favorites vs the Bengals … before they almost allowed Cincinnati to come back to win the game. The Bungles obviously fell short but this may be a foreshadowing of LA’s inability to close out games consistently.

    I may be hard on the Chargers, who are an impressive 9-1 SU and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games, but with the way the Patriots, Steelers and Chiefs have played this season, their window to get to the Super Bowl has opened and it can close fast in the AFC. The Chargers are 5-1 SU and ATS in six road games this season with their only loss coming to their neighbors in Southern California, the suddenly vulnerable Rams.

    Philip Rivers is in the discussion as an MVP candidate but the Chiefs are easily his worst enemy based on statistical output. Rivers owns a career 13-13 SU record vs the Chiefs with 36 TDs to an ugly 31 interceptions and 11 career fumbles. I’m not saying that he will fall back into poor play against his division rival but those numbers do not inspire confidence in bettors looking to keep riding the Chargers wave.

    I wrote the preview to this matchup last year when the AFC West and/or a playoff spot was on the line and the Chargers were the darlings of the conference. They then proceeded to get smashed 30-13 with Rivers throwing one touchdown to three interceptions. I think this Chargers squad is a little bit different from a defensive standpoint (ranked sixth in points allowed per game) but worry that it won’t be enough to stop the offensive machine known as the Chiefs. They’ll also be relying a little more on Justin Jackson and Detrez Newsome in the running game as both Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler are likely out for this divisional matchup.

    Potent Offenses Should Lead to An OVER

    The total opened at 56.5 (since moved to 53.5) and with the Chiefs involved, no UNDER is safe, which is why I like the OVER. The OVER has hit in four of the Chiefs’ last five games with an average combined score of 65.4 points per game. That number may be slightly inflated by the combined final score of 105 from the Rams game but that shows that their defense still gives up a ton of points too. Factoring in that the OVER has hit in four of the Chargers’ six road games this season, you’d be hard pressed to find anyone taking the UNDER.

    My Pick Is…

    To take the OVER and the Chiefs to cover the spread on separate wagers. The history of this matchup speaks to me and the Chiefs have been involved in some crazy shootouts this season, which makes me think another one is in store. I also like that they seem to have Rivers’ number over the last five seasons and at -3.5, it seems like a gift for a spread so small.

Odds

Thursday, December 13 Thu Dec 13


Opening
Current

Spread
Moneyline
O/U
Opening
+3.5
-110
+153
o56.5
-110
-3.5
-110
-182
u56.5
-110
Spread
Moneyline
O/U
Current
+3.5
-110
+175
o54
-110
-3.5
-110
-205
u54
-110

Edge Finder

23.39
Points Scored
29.20
268.72
Passing Yards
288.85
88.39
Rushing Yards
115.70
30:48
Time on Field
30:21
67.94
Number of Plays
64.00
5.26
Yards Per Play
6.32
23.39
Points Scored
29.20
3.94
First Quarter
5.50
11.28
Second Quarter
9.95
2.89
Third Quarter
6.35
5.11
Fourth Quarter
6.95
268.72
Passing Yards
288.85
41.89
Pass Attempts
37.90
28.33
Pass Completions
25.60
2.33
Sacks
1.45
12.61
Sack Yards
9.95
9.48
Yards Per Pass
11.28
88.39
Rushing Yards
115.70
23.72
Rush Attempts
24.65
3.73
Yards Per Rush
4.69
0.56
Interceptions
0.60
1.11
Fumbles
1.20
0.50
Fumbles Lost
0.60
1.06
Total Turnovers
1.20
4.89
Penalties
4.85
37.61
Penalty Yards
46.85
30:48
Time on Field
30:21
67.94
Number of Plays
64.00
5.26
Yards Per Play
6.32
4.33
Punts
3.15
43.46
Punt Average
49.60
61.28
Return Yards
68.45

Head To Head

LAC
Stat Type KC
1-9
Record
9-1
2-8
ATS
8-2
4-6
O/U
4-6
16.50
Points Scored
27.10
107.20
Rush Yds
136.60
37.20
Pass Attempts
28.70
59.95
Completion %
69.69
239.00
Passing Yds
214.40
346.2
Total Yds
351
1.90
Turnovers
0.40
LAC
Stat Type KC
0-3
Record
3-0
0-3
ATS
3-0
1-2
O/U
1-2
17.00
Points Scored
30.67
108.33
Rush Yds
156.33
42.33
Pass Attempts
26.00
58.27
Completion %
69.23
284.33
Passing Yds
200.33
392.67
Total Yds
356.67
3.00
Turnovers
0.00
Sep 9/18 (1 of 10)
LAC
Stat Type KC
Home
Away
28
Points Scored
38
-3
ATS
+3
48.5 o
O/U
48.5 u
123
Rush Yds
106
51
Pass Attempts
27
66.67
Completion %
55.56
418
Passing Yds
256
541
Total Yds
362
2
Turnovers
0
Dec 16/17 (2 of 10)
LAC
Stat Type KC
Away
Home
13
Points Scored
30
+1
ATS
-1
47 o
O/U
47 u
98
Rush Yds
174
36
Pass Attempts
30
55.56
Completion %
76.67
209
Passing Yds
223
307
Total Yds
397
4
Turnovers
0
Sep 24/17 (3 of 10)
LAC
Stat Type KC
Home
Away
10
Points Scored
24
+3
ATS
-3
47 o
O/U
47 u
104
Rush Yds
189
40
Pass Attempts
21
50.00
Completion %
76.19
226
Passing Yds
122
330
Total Yds
311
3
Turnovers
0
Jan 1/17 (4 of 10)
LAC
Stat Type KC
Home
Away
27
Points Scored
37
+5.5
ATS
-5.5
45 o
O/U
45 u
129
Rush Yds
103
38
Pass Attempts
28
57.89
Completion %
75.00
269
Passing Yds
262
398
Total Yds
365
2
Turnovers
1
Sep 11/16 (5 of 10)
LAC
Stat Type KC
Away
Home
27
Points Scored
33
+6.5
ATS
-6.5
45 o
O/U
45 u
155
Rush Yds
83
36
Pass Attempts
48
69.44
Completion %
70.83
233
Passing Yds
330
388
Total Yds
413
0
Turnovers
1
Dec 13/15 (6 of 10)
LAC
Stat Type KC
Away
Home
3
Points Scored
10
+11.5
ATS
-11.5
42 o
O/U
42 u
44
Rush Yds
150
43
Pass Attempts
23
55.81
Completion %
65.22
236
Passing Yds
179
280
Total Yds
329
1
Turnovers
2
Nov 22/15 (7 of 10)
LAC
Stat Type KC
Home
Away
3
Points Scored
33
+3
ATS
-3
45.5 o
O/U
45.5 u
52
Rush Yds
153
30
Pass Attempts
25
63.33
Completion %
80.00
149
Passing Yds
232
201
Total Yds
385
2
Turnovers
0
Dec 28/14 (8 of 10)
LAC
Stat Type KC
Away
Home
7
Points Scored
19
+3
ATS
-3
42.5 o
O/U
42.5 u
112
Rush Yds
111
34
Pass Attempts
27
58.82
Completion %
59.26
249
Passing Yds
140
361
Total Yds
251
3
Turnovers
0
Oct 19/14 (9 of 10)
LAC
Stat Type KC
Home
Away
20
Points Scored
23
-3
ATS
+3
45.5 o
O/U
45.5 u
69
Rush Yds
154
31
Pass Attempts
28
54.84
Completion %
67.86
182
Passing Yds
211
251
Total Yds
365
1
Turnovers
0
Dec 29/13 (10 of 10)
LAC
Stat Type KC
Home
Away
27
Points Scored
24
-15
ATS
+15
45 o
O/U
45 u
186
Rush Yds
143
33
Pass Attempts
30
66.67
Completion %
70.00
219
Passing Yds
189
405
Total Yds
332
1
Turnovers
0

Team Records

LAC
Record KC
10-3
All
11-2
5-2
Home
6-0
5-1
Away
5-2
7-6
ATS
8-4-1
2-5
ATS Home
3-3
5-1
ATS Away
5-1-1
7-6
O/U
8-5
3-4
O/U Home
2-4
4-2
O/U Away
6-1
LAC
Record KC
7-2
All
9-1
3-2
Home
4-0
4-0
Away
5-1
5-4
ATS
7-3
1-4
ATS Home
2-2
4-0
ATS Away
5-1
4-5
O/U
6-4
1-4
O/U Home
1-3
3-1
O/U Away
5-1
LAC
Record KC
2-2
All
4-0
1-2
Home
1-0
1-0
Away
3-0
2-2
ATS
2-2
1-2
ATS Home
0-1
1-0
ATS Away
2-1
0-0
O/U
0-0
0-0
O/U Home
0-0
0-0
O/U Away
0-0
LAC
Record KC
9-1
All
8-2
5-1
Home
5-0
4-0
Away
3-2
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
2-4
ATS Home
2-3
4-0
ATS Away
3-1-1
4-6
O/U
5-5
2-4
O/U Home
1-4
2-2
O/U Away
4-1

Gametime Weather

Weather
7:00 pm EST Overcast
3ºC / 38ºF
77% Humidity
12% Precipitation
98% Cloud Cover
Wind Impact Stadium Type Open
Field Image
Arrow Image 14
mph

Injuries

Name Position Inj Desc
No Injuries to Report
Name Position Inj Desc
No Injuries to Report

Last 10 Games

Date Opp Score SU Line/Total ATS OFF. RUSH OFF. PASS OFF. TOTAL DEF. RUSH DEF. PASS DEF. TOTAL TO
Dec 9, 2018CIN26-21W-16.5/48.5L/U852032881441512950
Dec 2, 2018PIT33-30W+3/53.5W/O8528637165271336-1
Nov 25, 2018ARI45-10W-14/43W/O17823641462871490
Nov 18, 2018DEN22-23L-7/47L/U953844791082173252
Nov 11, 2018OAK20-6W-10/50.5W/U1132223351142033170
Nov 4, 2018SEA25-17W+1/48.5W/U160215375154202356-1
Oct 21, 2018TEN20-19W-6.5/46L/U47297344164226390-1
Oct 14, 2018CLE38-14W+1/47W/O246203449103214317-1
Oct 7, 2018OAK26-10W-5.5/51.5W/U7933341241248289-2
Sep 30, 2018SF29-27W-10/46.5L/O12624236876288364-1
View Game Logs
Date Opp Score SU Line/Total ATS OFF. RUSH OFF. PASS OFF. TOTAL DEF. RUSH DEF. PASS DEF. TOTAL TO
Dec 9, 2018BAL27-24W-6.5/48.5L/O943474411981233210
Dec 2, 2018OAK40-33W-14/53.5L/O174295469171271442-2
Nov 19, 2018LAR51-54L+3/63.5P/O98448546763794553
Nov 11, 2018ARI26-14W-16/49.5L/U11821233094166260-2
Nov 4, 2018CLE37-21W-8/51.5W/O1393604991022863880
Oct 28, 2018DEN30-23W-9/53.5L/U49291340189222411-1
Oct 21, 2018CIN45-10W-6.5/56.5W/U198353551651742390
Oct 14, 2018NE40-43L+3.5/59.5W/O943524461733275001
Oct 7, 2018JAC30-14W-3/48W/U126298424101401502-3
Oct 1, 2018DEN27-23W-3.5/53.5W/U142304446159226385-1
View Game Logs
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