Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals

After losing Joe Burrow for the rest of the season, the Cincinnati Bengals (5-5 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) desperately need a victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4, 6-4) to avoid losing further ground in the AFC playoff race. Cincinnati has won 10 of its last 12 home games and is 10-2 ATS in its last dozen as an underdog, but the Steelers are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight on the road. Cincinnati has won and covered four of the last five meetings.

Latest Betting Notes: Steelers

For a team with a winning record and currently in playoff positioning, there’s a lot of discontent in the Steelers dressing room these days. Most of that frustration is with an offense that continued to struggle in last week’s 13-10 loss at Cleveland, the seventh time in eight games that Pittsburgh has gone UNDER the total.

Receiver Diontae Johnson and running back Najee Harris both voiced their displeasure after the loss, Pittsburgh’s first in its last 10 one-score games going back to last season. Quarterback Kenny Pickett barely cracked the century mark in passing yards and has not thrown for more than 160 yards in the past month.

Defensively, Pittsburgh is as sound as ever, holding each of its last six opponents to 20 points or less. That unit could get even better this week with the potential return of star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, who has missed Pittsburgh’s last three games with a hamstring injury.

Latest Betting Notes: Bengals

At 1-5 in conference games and 0-3 against their division, the Bengals already faced an uphill battle to get back to the playoffs. Now they’ll have to do it without Burrow, who will miss the rest of the season with a wrist injury suffered in last Thursday’s 34-20 loss at Baltimore.

That leaves the offense in the hands of journeyman Jake Browning, who will make his first career start against the Steelers. Browning at least got his feet wet last week in relief of Burrow, completing eight of 14 passes for 68 yards and a touchdown while scrambling for 40 yards on the ground.

The Keys to Victory: Steelers

As bad as Pickett and the Steelers’ passing game have been, Pittsburgh is suddenly finding lots of success on the ground. Jaylen Warren ran for a career-high 129 yards against the Browns — his second straight 100-yard effort — and should be licking his lips for a matchup against a Cincinnati front giving up five yards per carry.

Pittsburgh’s bread and butter defensively remains its pass rush, and that could force the inexperienced Browning into some mistakes behind a mediocre offensive line giving up 2.7 sacks per game.

The Keys to Victory: Bengals

Going from Burrow to Browning is obviously a huge drop-off, but at least the Bengals have had a few extra days to transition the offense after playing on Thursday last week. Cincinnati’s players also embrace the underdog role, covering 10 of their last 12 when catching points.

The Bengals’ defense has had little problem shutting down the Steelers in recent meetings in Cincinnati, allowing less than 15 points per game in the last four at Paul Brown Stadium.