Can Toronto Break out of Recent Slump at Home vs Arizona?

The Arizona Coyotes embark on a season-long six-game road trip with the first coming at the Scotiabank Arena against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Arizona had a three-game road swing beginning 10 days ago and it found success winning two of the three games. Meanwhile, Toronto has dropped five of its last six home games, but it is a -270 favorite with Arizona coming back at +220 and the total Sportsbook at 6 goals.

Arizona vs Toronto Game Center

Scoring has gone silent for the Leafs

For a team that has the firepower that Toronto has, it is surprising to see that it has been limited to three or fewer goals in six of its last nine games, including getting shut out twice at home. A big concern for the Maple Leafs is it doesn’t generate a lot of shots, getting into the offensive zone to get one shot at a time before transitioning back to defense. They are average just 29.8 shots per game at home which are the sixth-fewest in the NHL and that has led to an average of 3.21 goals per game ranking 13th.

Meanwhile, on the defensive side of things, Toronto is giving up the ninth-most shot attempts at home with 32 pucks being directed towards its goal. Luckily, it has Frederik Andersen between the pipes who has a 2.53 goals against average this season with an impressive .923 save percentage and at home, those numbers adjust to a 2.23 GAA and a .932 save percentage. The Leafs have dropped five of its last six home games, including its last three in a row and it all starts with getting more pucks towards the opposing goal.

Coyotes are good defensively on the road

Arizona finds itself on a bit of a run recently, picking up wins in four of its last six games, and points in five of those games. One of the bright spots has been the offensive output that has been much needed all season as the Coyotes have scored three or more goals in each of those four most recent victories, averaging 3.5 goals per game in their last six games. On the season they are scoring just 2.60 goals per game which are the fourth-fewest in the NHL and that drops to 2.48 goals per game on the road.

However, the Yotes are still a competitive team away from home posting a 12-10-1 SU record and are 16-7 ATS. Much of this success can be directed at their defensive play, surrendering an average of just 30.3 shots per game which are the seventh-fewest in the league, and they give up just 2.96 goals per game. Netminder Darcy Kuemper has been fairly reliable in the crease for Arizona, as he has a 2.98 goals against average with a .905 save percentage in his 12 road starts and he is 3-1 in his last four outings away from home.

Is an UNDER in store for tonight’s game?

Toronto and Arizona have been good UNDER plays this season and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 6 goals. The Yotes have gone UNDER in five of their last eight games with just three games going OVER 6 goals and an average combined score of six. Meanwhile, the Leafs have gone UNDER in eight of their last 10 games with an average combined score of 5.6.

Additionally, Toronto has had difficulties scoring recently, and especially at home, while Arizona does a good job limiting shots and goals against in its road games. I think Toronto may find some success tonight with the huge advantage with their forwards but I don’t think Arizona will be able to find the back to the net enough to hit the OVER so I like the UNDER tonight.

My take on Arizona vs Toronto

I like Arizona +1.5 tonight. Kuemper has won four of his last five games and the Yotes have been within one goal in nine of his last 10 starts, including all six this month. Meanwhile, Toronto’s scoring has been at a standstill at home, taking the sixth-fewest shots per game and Arizona allows the seventh-fewest shots against on the road.

The Maple Leafs are dealing with a bit of a rough patch, dropping six of its last nine games, while the Coyotes are finding scoring more frequently recently and have won four of their last six games. Overall, I think Arizona can keep it close and cover the +1.5.