Happy Friday to you all. I have three NHL expert picks for you tonight March 22, 2024. In those three picks, I've got a moneyline, total and puckline pick for you.
NHL Expert Picks Tonight: March 22, 2024
Hurricanes vs Capitals
The Game: Carolina Hurricanes vs Washington Capitals, 7 PM ET
| Team | Puckline | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Hurricanes | -1.5 (+130) | O6 (-105) | -205 |
| Washington Capitals | +1.5 (-155) | U6 (-115) | +170 |
Pick 1: U6 (-115)
I like the UNDER here. When away from home, the Canes are 19-13-2 against the UNDER and 7-2-1 in their last 10 games. Now add the fact that Carolina is on the second leg of a back-to-back. In that specific context, Rob Brind'Amour's Hurricanes are 4-2 against the UNDER.
And look, it's not as if the Caps are some sort of offensive powerhouse. They've got the fifth-worst offense in the league with 2.66 goals per game.
Penguins vs Stars
The Game: Pittsburgh Penguins vs Dallas Stars, 8 PM ET
| Team | Puckline | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Penguins | +1.5 (-148) | O6.5 (-105) | +164 |
| Dallas Stars | -1.5 (+124) | U6.5 (-115) | -198 |
Pick 2: Penguins ML (+164)
With an implied odd of 66%, books believe Dallas will win, but looking under the hood at the underlying numbers, I believe Pittsburgh could win this one.
My model likes the Pens here. That's because Pittsburgh and Dallas are close for xGF at 5on5 in their last 10 at 3.7 for the Pens and 3.85 for Dallas. The deciding factor is goaltending with Tristan Jarry holding a +0.06 goals saved above average per 60 to Oettinger's -0.2.
I'm taking Pittsburgh at +164.
Blue Jackets vs Avalanche
The Game: Columbus Blue Jackets vs Colorado Avalanche, 9 PM ET
| Team | Puckline | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus Blue Jackets | +1.5 (+130) | O6.5 (-125) | +295 |
| Colorado Avalanche | -1.5 (-155) | U6.5 (+105) | -375 |
Pick 3: Avalanche -1.5 (-155)
The Avs are decimating teams on home ice. In their last 20 at Ball Arena, Colorado holds a 17-3SU record. They've also got a crazy +39 differential and covered a -1.5 puckline 12 times (60%). It's borderline not even fair.
Columbus has been better defensively than we give them credit for, but they've only covered a +1.5 puckline when at least +200 dogs three times in eight games. They will make it a fourth tonight. Columbus loses by more than two goals.
