As the NHL schedule keeps on chugging, so do the point streaks for Toronto Maple Leafs forward William Nylander and New York Rangers star Artemi Panarin.
Both players have notched a point in every game they've played this year. It's absurd. But all good things must come to an end. So who's streak breaks first?
Panarin and Nylander are HOT 🔥— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) November 19, 2023
Who will have the longest point streak? 👀 pic.twitter.com/0W9mMVrM27
What NHL Scoring Streak Breaks First?
Let's look at each player's next five games. We can get back to this if either player's streak goes beyond their next five games.
This is the second time I have looked at a five-game sample for both players. I thought Nylander's streak would end at 14 games and Panarin's at 15. They're at 17 and 15, respectively.
In each player's next five games what we're looking for is the quality of the defense they're up against both overall and in the specific context of the game. (Defensive ranks are based on goals against per game played.)
We're also looking at how effective those opponents are on the penalty kill. Nylander has scored 37% of his points on the PP while the power play has accounted for a crazy 42% of Panarin's production.
I've also added a column for points per game against each opponent.
Toronto Maple Leafs and William Nylander's Next 5 Games
|William Nylander Next 5||Opps. Defensive Rank (OVR)||Opps. Defensive Rank (Context)||Opps. PK%||Pts/GP|
|@ Chicago Blackhawks||25||25||77.4%||1.50|
|@ Pittsburgh Penguins||7||9||84.9%||0.50|
|vs. Florida Panthers||8||8||74.1%||0.70|
|vs. Seattle Kraken||24||14||72.9%||1.50|
|vs. Boston Bruins||1||2||91.5%||0.68|
I'm not worried about Nylander's stream ending against Chicago. He's owned them in his career with 1.50 points per game. Not to mention the Hawks are horrible defensively and on the PK. Willy Styles gets to 18 games. No Doubt.
But Nylander's steak ends against the flightless birds in Pittsburgh. His career scoring falls to 0.50 points per game with a healthy 16-game sample vs the Penguins. And then consider the Pens are top-10 for defense (overall and at home) and on the PK.
An 18-game point streak is still an incredible feat that will surely help him get paid after this contract is done.
New York Rangers and Artemi Panarin's Next 5 Games
|Artemi Panarin Next 5||Opps. Defensive Rank (OVR)||Opps. Defensive Rank (Context)||Opps. PK%||Pts/GP|
|@ Dallas Stars||10||24||89.1%||0.95|
|@ Pittsburgh Penguins||7||9||84.9%||1.22|
|@ Philadelphia Flyers||11||16||81.7%||1.38|
|vs Boston Bruins||1||2||91.5%||0.71|
|vs Buffalo Sabres||16||20||85.3%||1.27|
For Panarin, his streak might go another three games.
Sure, Dallas, Pittsburgh and Philly have good defensive records, but look at those career splits against the three aforementioned teams. The Bread Man is scoring at or over a point per game against each. You might also want to scope how all three get worse defensively in the specific context of the game
I feel confident that Panarin's streak will continue to 18 games and match Nylander. To break the tie, he'll have to score against Boston.
The Bruins will be on the second leg of a back-to-back as they travel to New York from Detroit. So that's kind of an advantage, but the Bruins have the best goals-against per game with 0 days of rest since 22-23 at 2.47. I don't like Panarin's chances.
So we might have a tie for longest points streaks to open the 23-24 season at 18 games.
How Can You Profit From These Streaks?
Profiting from these streaks is all about prop markets. Here's a look at Panarin's props and odds for tonight's Rangers vs Stars duel.
|Over/ Under 1.5 Points||+165/-215|
|Over 0.5 Power Play Points||+105|
|Over/Under 3.5 SOG||+114/-145|
There's value here. Knowing Panarin from having him on my fantasy team, he gets a lot of points and gets a ton of shots. In his last five games, Artemi Panarin has averaged 2.0 points and 5.6 shots per game.
I'd take Over 1.5 points at +165. But I wouldn't stop there. Take a look at his shots prop.
In his last two games, Yeast Mode had nine and eight shots on the net respectively. He's a machine. And the Dallas Stars have allowed the eighth most shots against per game this year at 32.5.
Betting OVER 3.5 shots at +114 seems like free money.