Atonement is top of mind for both teams in this NHL Stanley Cup playoff series.
For the Boston Bruins, it's correcting their first-round exit last year. After posting the best single season in NHL history, they were toppled in seven games by the eight-seed Florida Panthers. It was embarrassing for them.
For the Florida Panthers, it's about missing out on a Cup for the second time in franchise history against a new franchise.
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Florida Panthers vs. Boston Bruins Playoff Series Hub
Florida Panthers Vs. Boston Bruins Schedule
| Game | Date | Time | Location |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | Monday, May 6 | 8 PM ET | Florida |
| Game 2 | Wednesday, May 8 | 7:30 PM ET | Florida |
| Game 3 | Friday, May 10 | 7 PM ET | Boston |
| Game 4 | Sunday, May 12 | TBD | Boston |
| Game 5* | Tuesday, May 14 | TBD | Florida |
| Game 6* | Friday, May 17 | TBD | Boston |
| Game 7* | Sunday, May 19 | TBD | Florida |
*If necessary
The NHL couldn't figure out times for all four definite games, eh? We'll see if we get an early start for this series. I don't know about you, but there's just something about this series that screams a 2 PM puck drop at some point.
Florida Panthers vs. Boston Bruins Series Winner Odds
| Team | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| Florida Panthers | -190 |
| Boston Bruins | +160 |
Odds as of May 6
Florida took care of business last year even though it only entered the playoffs because the Pittsburgh Penguins couldn't beat the Chicago Blackhawks. Arguably, the Panthers shouldn't have been in the playoffs in 2023. Yet, they still dropped the record-setting Bruins in 7 games.
Now that they enter the playoffs as the No.1 seed in the East, it's easy to see why the oddsmakers favor them. They also dispatched a strong Tampa team with relative ease in five games.
Boston struggled against a flawed Toronto team. They luckily stole Game 1 when they lost the xG battle 4.54 to 3.7. They're not going to have the same luck against this Florida team.
Florida Panthers Vs. Boston Bruins Total Games Odds
| Total Games | Odds |
|---|---|
| 7 Games | +210 |
| 6 Games | +210 |
| 5 Games | +260 |
| 4 Games | +550 |
Odds as of May 6
Oddsmakers don't believe this will be a particularly quick series with similar odds given to a six or seven-game series. And I get it. Firstly, These two teams battled it out seven games last year in the playoffs and secondly, Boston did win all four meetings this year.
Not to mention that these sides are pretty well-matched in just about every aspect of the game:
- Offense: Florida ranked 11th (265) to Boston's 14th (263)
- Defense: Florida was t-1st (198) with Boston 5th (221)
- PP: Florida was 8th at 23.5% while Boston was t-13th at 22.5%
- PK: Both teams were tied at 6th with an 82.5% efficiency
These teams are evenly matched. So yeah, the series likely goes long.
Florida Panthers vs. Boston Bruins Series Prediction Odds
| Series Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Panthers 4-3 | +400 |
| Panthers 4-1 | +400 |
| Panthers 4-2 | +425 |
| Bruins 4-2 | +600 |
| Bruins 4-3 | +650 |
| Panthers 4-0 | +800 |
| Bruins 4-1 | +1000 |
| Bruins 4-0 | +2000 |
Odds as of May 6
So, we know the teams are evenly matched and because of that, the series likely goes beyond five games. The difference, in my opinion, is going to be talent levels. Specifically in terms of finishing. Something that Florida has over Boston.
In terms of 5on5 xG to actual goal differential, Florida scored 0.67 goals above expected in their first-round series, compared to Boston's -4.93. The chances the Panthers get (at 5on5) end up in the back of the net. That's not the case for Boston.
Florida Panthers vs. Boston Bruins 2023-24 Betting Results
| Date | Home Team ML | Away Team ML | Final Score | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 6, 2024 | Boston (-120) | Florida (+100) | 3-2 Bruins | 5.5 (U) |
| March 26, 2024 | Florida (-140) | Boston (+120) | 4-3 Bruins | 6.0 (O) |
| November 22, 2023 | Florida (-110) | Boston (-110) | 3-1 Bruins | 6.0 (U) |
| October 30, 2023 | Boston (-160) | Florida (+140) | 3-2 Bruins | 6.0 (U) |
Boston swept the regular-season series with four straight wins. A result I'm sure they would have rather seen in last year's playoffs instead of the regular season this year.
You'll also see later in this piece that Boston has dominated this matchup in recent years. At least when it comes to the regular season.
Notable Player Performances
Sergey Bobrovsky: Officer Bobrovsky wasn't even that great against Tampa with a 0.896SV% and 2.78GAA. But when a goalie is able to make outrageous saves like this and is up for his third Vezina trophy, you can't ignore him.
just an absolutely insane save by Bobrovsky pic.twitter.com/9SwfFk9xUW
— Shayna (@hayyyshayyy) April 24, 2024
The Rats: We've got the two biggest rats in the game facing off (again) in this series; Matthew Tkachuk and Brad Marchand.
Tkachuk co-leads the Panthers in points in these playoffs with 9 and was a huge factor the last time the Cats faced Boston with 11 points in seven games.
Not to be outdone, Brad Marchand also leads his team in production with eight points in seven games against the Leafs and was equally productive in the playoffs against Florida with 10 points in seven games. And don't forget his elite shithousery away from the puck.
Bertuzzi vs Marchand is getting good pic.twitter.com/RsdmlmvF1U
— Joe Haggerty (@HackswithHaggs) April 25, 2024
Florida Panthers vs. Boston Bruins Odds To Win NHL Stanley Cup
| Team | Odds To Win NHL Finals |
|---|---|
| Florida Panthers | +425 |
| Boston Bruins | +1000 |
Odds as of May 6
Florida has the best odds to win the Stanley Cup, not just compared to Boston but when compared to the field. While Boston has the second-longest odds. Only Vancouver's odds are longer than the Bruins +1000.
Expert Prediction: Panthers (-190), Panthers 4-2 (+425)
By now you know where I'm going with this pick. I've spent the entire piece laying out why I feel the Florida Panthers. They're just as good as Boston in every aspect of the game but have the edge when it comes to scoring talent.
And, well, being able to convert at a higher rate than one's opponent is how hockey games are won.
I have no doubt that Boston will avoid a sweep or even a gentleman's sweet. They're just too good at home with a 58-15-9 record over the last two seasons.
Historical Betting Trends: Last 10 games
| Date | Home Team ML | Away Team ML | Final Score | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 6, 2024 | Boston (-120) | Florida (+100) | 3-2 Bruins | 5.5 (U) |
| March 26, 2024 | Florida (-140) | Boston (+120) | 4-3 Bruins | 6.0 (O) |
| November 22, 2023 | Florida (-110) | Boston (-110) | 3-1 Bruins | 6.0 (U) |
| October 30, 2023 | Boston (-160) | Florida (+140) | 3-2 Bruins | 6.0 (U) |
| January 28, 2023 | Florida (+140) | Boston (-160) | 4-3 Panthers | 6.5 (O) |
| December 19, 2022 | Boston (-210) | Florida (+175) | 7-3 Bruins | 6.5 (O) |
| November 23, 2022 | Florida (-120) | Boston (+100) | 5-2 Panthers | 6.5 (O) |
| October 17, 2022 | Boston (+115) | Florida (-135) | 5-3 Bruins | 6.5 (O) |
| April 26, 2022 | Boston (+100) | Florida (-120) | 4-2 Bruins | 6.5 (U) |
| October 30, 2021 | Boston (-145) | Florida (+125) | 3-2 Bruins | 6.0 (U) |
Remember when I said to look at the last 10 games for Boston's dominance? You see it now, right? The B's are 8-2SU against Florida in their last 10 (regular-season) matchups.
But when you flip that to look at only the post-season, Boston is 4-6SU. So, regular season success doesn't always translate to the playoffs.
