After totaling 24 goals through three games of their first-round series, the San Jose Sharks and Vegas Golden Knights have decided to put defense on the shelf for the time being going into Game 4. The Knights are coming off a 6-3 drubbing of the Sharks and Mark Stone had a coming-out party with three goals and five points. The Knights and Sharks met last year in the playoffs with the Knights dispatching the Sharks in six games.
The Knights opened as -140 favorites with a total of 6.5.
STANDOUT STATS
- The top line for the Knights of Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty and Paul Stastny has been lighting up the scoreboard through three playoff games, combining for 22 points and 10 goals. Stone was a pickup by the Knights at the trade deadline and he was instrumental in the Game 3 victory with a hat trick and two assists.
- The Sharks were one of the highest-scoring teams in the NHL coming into the postseason by averaging 3.52 goals per game (tied for second) but despite having two high-end defensemen in Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson, they still allowed 3.1 goals per game, which was 21st in the league. They had a +4.7 shot differential, the best in hockey, which explains how they were able to have such a good regular-season record. They’ve had 16 power-play opportunities in three games of the series but have only scored three times, which has them ninth out of 16 playoff teams.
- Marc-Andre Fleury may not be the rock he was during the Knights’ Stanley Cup run last postseason but it’s the Knights offense that has picked up the slack. He’s given up 10 goals through three games on 97 shots but Vegas has scored 11 goals over the last two games to make up for the miscues. During the regular season, Fleury faced the Sharks twice and only gave up three goals on 60 shots.
- Sharks goaltender Martin Jones got battered by 40 shots vs the Knights in Game 3 and as a result gave up six goals. Jones’ save percentage was a troubling stat coming into this series at .897 for the regular season and it’s been more of the same vs the Knights. He’s given up 11 goals through three games and got pulled in Game 2 after allowing three goals on seven shots.
- Although the Knights were one of the best UNDER teams at home this season (15-22-4), the scoring in this series makes it difficult to envision another UNDER is in store for Game 4. Each game has gone OVER in this series with a total of 24 goals scored so far. When these teams faced each other last year in the second round, four of the six games went OVER and the average combined score from that six-game series was 6 goals.
My Best Bet for Sharks vs Knights
OVER 6.5
This one feels pretty simple because Martin Jones can’t stop the puck. The veteran goaltender has not proven this season, in last year’s playoffs or in this series that he can have a save percentage over .900 and the Knights offense is so much better than it was during last year’s run to the Cup final.
The Sharks give up far too many goals to anticipate an UNDER and I expect them to come out flying to try to strike first to quiet the crowd. Joe Thornton will be out for the Sharks, which will reduce their depth at center, which I think will be good for an OVER pick.
