Fresh off a road win vs the Golden Knights, the St. Louis Blues travel further West when they take on the San Jose Sharks tonight. The Blues are 2-4 SU in six road games this season despite holding teams to 2.5 goals per contest. On the flipside, the Sharks are allowing three goals per game at home but have gone 7-3 SU in their first 10 home games this year.
The Sharks opened as large -200 favorites with a total of 5.5.
- The UNDER has hit in the Blues' last 5 Games (Average combined score: 4 goals per game).
- The Blues are 5-1 SU in six games as an underdog this season.
- The Sharks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games at home.
Blues Succeeding in an Underdog Role
Hovering near the bottom of the Western Conference, the Blues have been a disappointing squad so far this season. Offseason addition Ryan O’Reilly has been doing his job with 10 goals and 23 points but the rest of the lineup is falling short of expectations. O’Reilly is the only Blues player to be averaging more than a point per game and with the talents of Vladimir Tarasenko, Brayden Schenn and Jaden Schwartz on the roster, its shaping up to be another letdown season in the River City.
Goaltender Chad Johnson (not Ocho Cinco) is getting the start for St. Louis and in his three outings this month, he’s only allowed four goals including a shutout win at home vs the Sharks. He’s sporting an impressive .956 save percentage from those three contests.
The Blues have also been thriving when pegged as an underdog by oddsmakers this season as they’ve gone 5-1 SU and against the puckline in that spot. I think with the way Johnson has been playing and the fact they’ve shut this team out already this season, I’m like the Blues’ chances to come away with the victory. If you don’t think the Blues have what it takes to get the W, it’s worth mentioning they’re 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three games on the second game of a back-to-back (dating back to last season).
Avoid the Sharks’ Puckline
At 7-3 SU in 10 games at home, you would think the Sharks would be dominating teams with the two of the best defensemen in the NHL in Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson. Well, that doesn’t seem to be the case based on recent outings as the Sharks are 4-3 SU in their last seven games at the Shark Tank and 1-6 ATS. The reason the puckline record is significant is that they were favored in all seven of those games which means they’re not closing the deal as they should.
San Jose ranks 26th in goals allowed per game this month (3.50) yet it's outshooting its opponents by nearly seven shots per contest. Goaltender Martin Jones has been up-and-down this month by allowing three goals or more in five of six games and his .883 save percentage does not inspire confidence for the Sharks’ defensive efforts.
UNDER Alert for Blues Games
The total opened at 5.5 and when the Blues are involved lately, the UNDER seems to follow. The UNDER has hit in the Blues’ last five games with an average combined score of 4 goals per game. The Blues have been stout defensively this month and their goals per game average is 2.8 per game in seven contests.
My Pick Is...
To take the Blues to cover the +1.5 puckline. The Sharks have been rather disappointing this season and I think they’re due for another letdown due to their inefficiency on the defensive side of the puck. If bettors don’t feel comfortable backing the Blues, I would also recommend the UNDER 5.5 goals based on the research above.
