Underdog Panthers a Good Bet Over Rival Lightning in Game 1

The Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers start their series on Sunday night in what could be one of most contentious series’ of the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Panthers were 5-2-1 against their in-state rival this season while the Lightning went 3-5-0. The Lightning are favored on the road in Game 1.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The game opened with even odds on both the Lightning and Panthers, but the line has shifted in favor of Tampa Bay and can now be found in the -120 to -125 range. The total opened at 5.5 and is locked in at that number with the OVER favored between -110 and -123 depending on the book.

Tampa Bay News & Notes

The Lightning lost the last two games of the regular season to the Panthers by a combined score of 9-1, but the underlying numbers show closer games than one might think based on the scores.

The two teams tied in overall scoring chances and high danger scoring chances in the first game while the Lightning had more of both in the second. The Panthers had the edge in shots, Corsi and expected goals in the first game but the Lightning flipped the script and bested the Panthers in those three categories in the second game.

It is hard to draw much relevance from such a close regular-season series, but that's where the Lightning may get their advantage is with their personnel. The 2019 Hart Trophy Sportsbook Nikita Kucherov, who has not played all season, is poised to make his season debut in Game 1 and captain Steven Stamkos will also play after missing the last month of games. Top defensemen Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh and winger Ondrej Palat should all return to the lineup as well after missing a couple games to end the year.

Florida News & Notes

The Florida Panthers enter the series almost completely healthy as the only regulars who were questionable, Jonathan Huberdeau, Patric Hornqvist and Brandon Montour were all back at practice this week and should be ready for Game 1.

Having a heathy Huberdeau will be critical to the Panthers’ success in the playoffs as he led the team in scoring for the second year in a row. Huberdeau had 20 goals and 61 points in 55 games. Him and linemate Aleksander Barkov formed one of the league’s most dynamic duos this season as Barkov was second on the team with 58 points, 22 more than third-place Carter Verhaeghe.

The Panthers were one of the hottest teams in the league over the final month of the regular season as they ranked sixth in expected goals for percentage and scored the fifth most even strength goals in that span. The team was also seventh in overall scoring chances and twelfth in high danger scoring chances.