The mere mention of a “goalie controversy” can make an NHL team’s biggest fans shudder. Netminding issues can make a top team not perform to its highest capability or a struggling team continue its losing ways.
It appears that is an issue surrounding the Toronto Maple Leafs, the top team in the North Division standings, as Frederik Andersen and Jack Campbell are duking it out to be the netminder for the blue and white.
Online sportsbook Sportsbook has released Maple Leafs starting goalie odds on which player will start Game 1 of the NHL playoffs for the Buds and who will start Game 1 of the 2021-22 campaign. For both options, Jack Campbell is the chalk.
The Maple Leafs starting goalie odds for Game 1 of the NHL playoffs have Campbell at -160, followed by Frederik Andersen at +190, Jonathan Quick at +333, Michael Hutchinson at +600 and Veini Vehvilainen at +2000 to round out the top five on the oddsboard.
Looking ahead to Game 1 of the 2021-22 season, Campbell once again is the favorite in the Maple Leafs starting goalie odds at -190, followed by Andersen at +300, Quick at +333, Hutchinson at +333 and Vehvilainen at +2500.
Maple Leafs Starting Goalie Odds: Game 1 of Playoffs
Odds as of April 6 at Sportsbook
Maple Leafs Starting Goalie Odds: Game 1 of 2021-22 Season
Odds as of April 6 at Sportsbook
Looking at the odds to be the Maple Leafs’ starting goalie for the playoffs, our sports betting calculator tells us Campbell’s odds of -160 represent an implied probability of 61.54 percent. Meanwhile, for the first game of the 2021-22 season, Campbell’s -190 betting line has an implied win probability of 65.52 percent.
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His odds of -160 to be the Maple Leafs’ starting goalie for the first playoff game mean that you would have to wager $160 to profit $100, while the -190 betting line for the first game of the 2021-22 season means a $190 bet would profit you $100.
Maple Leafs Starting Goalie Odds: Why is Campbell the Favorite?
Jack Campbell was acquired by the Toronto Maple Leafs from the Los Angeles Kings via trade in February of the 2019-20 season. The 11th overall pick in the 2010 draft, Campbell struggled to find time in the net in the NHL, playing in just 58 games prior to joining the Leafs, though he had promising numbers with a career 2.58 goals-against average and a .916 save percentage.
The 29-year-old was brought in to serve as the backup to Frederik Andersen, who played 60 or more of the club’s 82 games in his first three seasons and ranked in the top three in minutes played per season with the Buds.
Freddy Hurt, Campbell Ties Record
In the 2020-21 season, Andersen was on track to protect the net a lot once again but has had his worst numbers with Toronto. Prior to suffering an injury in mid-March, he played in 23 games and sported a 2.91 goals-against average and .897 save percentage. In steps Campbell, who has started six of the eight games in Freddy’s absence, winning all of them and really coming into form. With a 5-3 victory over the Calgary Flames on April 5, he tied a franchise record of nine straight wins.
On the year, Campbell is 9-0 with a sparkling 1.53 goals-against average and a .944 save percentage. It is clear that while Andersen is sidelined, Campbell will be the protector of the twine. But having never played a full season, is he up to the task in the future?
I wouldn’t be surprised if Andersen is dealt at the NHL trade deadline, securing the net for Campbell and making him the clear favorite in the Maple Leafs starting goalie odds.
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Is there Another Goalie Providing Value in the Odds to be the Maple Leafs’ Starting Goalie?
Since there are two markets, I have two answers. Looking at the starting goalie odds for the Sportsbook game of the 2021-22 season, I think Campbell at -190 is an absolute lock because Andersen will be a free agent, while Jack’s cap hit is just $1.6 million and we know the cap situation Toronto is in with the likes of Auston Matthews, John Tavares and Mitch Marner collecting more than $30 million combined.
The market for the Sportsbook game of the NHL playoffs is trickier to cap with the trade deadline looming and the Leafs being in win-now mode, evident in their position as the No. 2 team in Stanley Cup odds. If Andersen is dealt, I think Campbell is the starter for that first game, but if Freddy remains a Leaf, then he is providing great value at +190. Like it or not, Andersen is still the starting goalie and this may become more apparent when he returns to the lineup from his lower-body injury.