There are few teams better than the Vancouver Canucks. Their 13-5-1 record is the third-best record in the NHL. They're also dominating teams with a +32 goal differential.
This outstanding goal differential has created $681 of profits ATS for bettors backing the Canucks. But look, these good times are due to a sky-high PDO, and those good times are about to end at the team level and for a few players.
Vancouver Canucks' Luck Running Dry
In the NHL, luck is measured through PDO, a stat combining on-ice shooting percentage and on-ice save percentage. PDO should be 1.000, with an on-ice shooting percentage of ~0.08 and an on-ice save percentage of ~0.920.
Any PDO slightly above 1.000 is usually a sign of a really skilled team. But a ridiculously high PDO like the Canucks 1.06 is a sign of some incredible luck.
If the Canucks continued through the 23-24 season with a 1.06PDO, they'd finish the year with the highest PDO in 17 years*. And by a healthy margin. The next highest PDO was achieved by last year's Boston Bruins at 1.04. And those Bruins were the best team to ever play the game.
(*PDO hasn't been measured beyond 2007-08.)
Vancouver's luck is, again, sky-high and a regression to the mean is imminent. This is where I turn into any scientist from any doomsday movie ever made: The data says this regression is already happening.
Get Off The Vancouver Canucks Wagon
Over the Canucks last six games, their PDO has fallen to an average of 0.981. And with it, the Canucks incredible ATS record (and profits) has taken a hit as well.
| Game | Result (Score) | PDO | ATS (W/L) |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs Toronto Maple Leafs | L (5-2) | 0.833 | L |
| vs Montreal Canadiens | W (5-2) | 1.073 | W |
| vs New York Islanders | W (4-3) | 1.002 | L |
| vs Calgary Flames | L (5-2) | 0.963 | L |
| vs Seattle Kraken | L (4-3) | 0.971 | L |
| vs San Jose Sharks | W (3-1) | 1.045 | W |
Remember, on the year the Canucks have made $681 in profits ATS thanks to a 14-5 record. But over these last six games, they've gone 2-4ATS for -2.08 units. The 'Nucks are slowing down.
That doesn't mean they'll be bad, but they're no longer this lock ATS. So stay away from a Canucks puckline. Unless they're playing the Sharks. In that case hammer Vancouver's odds no matter what they are.
Are Vancouver's Shooters or Goalies Failing?
So we know that PDO is shooting percentage plus save percentage. So which of the two is responsible for Vancouver's slide? It's shooting percentage.
Over their last six games, Vancouver's shooting percentage has been below 8% four times.
| Game | Shooting % | Save % | ATS (W/L) |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs Toronto Maple Leafs | 0.00 | 66.7 | L |
| vs Montreal Canadiens | 10.34 | 96.3 | W |
| vs New York Islanders | 0.00 | 96.3 | L |
| vs Calgary Flames | 5.56 | 91.43 | L |
| vs Seattle Kraken | 14.29 | 86.36 | L |
| vs San Jose Sharks | 6.90 | 100 | W |
To me that means players who've sported some glowing shooting percentages on the season are also regressing to the mean. So stay away from them when it comes to anytime goal odds. Here's a list of guys who've got some unsustainable shooting percentages:
| Player | Shooting% (23-24) | Career Shooting% |
|---|---|---|
| J.T. Miller | 27.9% | 14.4% |
| Brock Boeser | 25% | 12.7% |
| Nils Höglander | 23.8% | 9.3% |
| Ilya Mikheyev | 18.8% | 11.1% |
| Quinn Hughes | 13.8% | 4.9% |
