Expect Golden Knights to Bounce Back vs Stars in Game 4

The Dallas Stars have done a great job limiting the high-powered Vegas offense through three games of this series. But things are looking up for the Golden Knights. The numbers suggest Vegas may have deserved a better fate in Game 3 and we don’t expect Vegas’ top snipers to be held off the scoresheet much longer.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The line opened with the Golden Knights as favorites at -162. That number has gone in both directions depending on the book and can be found anywhere from -157 to -170. The total opened at 6.5 but has fallen to 5.5 almost unanimously.

Dallas News & Notes

The opportunistic Dallas Stars once again showed off their defensive prowess as they out chanced and Golden Knights in Game 3, holding them to just 17 chances. Dallas has discovered a formula to slow the Vegas attack and have avoided the offensive onslaughts handed out by Vegas in previous rounds.

However, Dallas was outshot handily in Game 3 and had fewer high danger scoring chances (11-8). But, continuing to hold Vegas’ attack at bay (relatively speaking) is a major plus.

An even bigger plus for Dallas might be the state of their goaltending. After looking shaky at time in previous rounds, goalie Anton Khudobin has earned the right to start from here on out for the Stars as he has settled into a groove. Khudobin now sports a .946 SV% for the series, allowing five goals through three games and just three goals at five on five.

Vegas News & Notes

The Vegas Golden Knights were held to fewer than 20 scoring chances for the third straight game in Game 3. They had not been held to fewer than 20 since Game 1 of their series against Chicago over a month ago.

However, there are positives for Vegas as their percentage of the shot and shot attempt totals rose for the third straight game. Good possession numbers often lead to goals, so it feels like Vegas is due for some positive regression.

If that regression hits, look for forwards Max Pacioretty, Reilly Smith and Alex Tuch to be the reasons why. Pacioretty was the leading scorer for the Golden Knights in the regular season while the other two are third and fourth on the team in scoring throughout the playoffs. The trio has combined for just three assists in the series.

Betting Pick: Vegas -165

The Golden Knights’ underlying numbers have been trending in the right direction and we feel they are due for some goal regression, especially with so many of the team’s top players goalless so far. Vegas ties the series.