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Capitals Have Struggled in the City of Brotherly Love

On the surface, you’d think that the 28-24-7 Philadelphia Flyers would have no chance against the 39-12-7 NHL-leading Capitals but that may not be the case. Washington has struggled in the City of Brotherly Love for quite some time and the Flyers have taken care of business on their home ice this season, leading me to cautiously believe there could be some value on the Broad Street Bullies this evening.

  • The Capitals are 4-10 SU in their last 14 games on the road against the Flyers.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of the Flyers' last 12 games.
  • Washington has a 2.13 goals per game differential since the all-star break.

By no means do I love the Flyers tonight. The Capitals have the best goal differential in the league since the break and Philly has been scoring goals at a rate that wouldn’t blow the doors off the loosest of hinges. That said, Philly has been limiting its opponents to 22.8 shots per game in February and is near the top of the league in fewest goals allowed this month.

This is a stark contrast to the volatile Flyers we knew back in 2016. There was a time that Philly was the second-highest scoring team in the league as well as the team that had allowed the most goals. If Claude Giroux and the rest of the Flyers can figure out why they can’t put the puck in the net, they could sneak back into a playoff position.

Another factor tonight is Braden Holtby’s 6-4-7 career record and .910 career save percentage against the Flyers. Holtby has been excellent in low-danger situations this year but has struggled in high-danger situations so if the Flyers can figure out how to generate some good looks, bettors could capitalize on their odds that opened them as the +140 home underdogs.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

On the opening NHL betting line for this matchup, Philadelphia sat as 127 underdogs over at BetOnline. The total was set at 5 at Bovada but may move closer to puck drop.

Handicapping models based on recent betting stats and prediction formulas pick a 4.4-0.8 win for the Capitals. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NHL matchups here.

Washington Capitals vs Philadelphia Flyers Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

The Washington Capitals will try to spoil to the party on Wednesday; they are 39-12-7 this season, while the Flyers are 28-24-7. Washington is 25-20-13 on the totals; Philadelphia is 26-25-8. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Philadelphia vs Washington injuries news.

This game puts the Philadelphia Flyers, most recently No. 22 in the Odds Shark NHL Power Rankings, up against the Washington Capitals, who rate a No. 1 in the latest survey.

Statistical Matchup

Offensively, the game matches up the Philadelphia Flyers No. 20-ranked offense (2.61 goals per game) against a Washington Capitals defense that ranks No. 1 at 2.17 goals per game allowed. The Flyers powerplay has clicked at a 21.29% rate while the Capitals have a 84.34% rate on the penalty kill.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

Last time out for Washington, they were a 2-1 loser as they battled the Rangers on the road. Moneyline bettors who got the Rangers at -118 were rewarded, while the 3 combined goals moved the game UNDER for totals bettors.

Philadelphia won its last outing, a 3-2 result against the Canucks on February 19. Bettors who backed the Flyers at -133 on the moneyline won on the day, and the total score (5) sent PUSH bettors to the payout window.

Betting Trends
  • Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Washington is 19-5 SU in its last 24 games
  • Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
  • Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
  • Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games
  • Philadelphia is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

Washington home to Edmonton, Friday, February 24th
Philadelphia at Pittsburgh, Saturday, February 25th