Spain has an impressive history in this tournament, not just in the group stage but right through. The sportsbooks back Spain to continue that dominance even in 2021, but does any other team in this group have a chance? Here is a look at the markets as well as a detailed analysis for your Euro 2020 Group E betting.
At Sportsbook, Spain is the favored team with odds of -280 in the Euro 2020 Group E betting odds market. Poland (+550) and Sweden (+600) are next on the oddsboard, while Slovakia (+1400) is the underdog to win this group.
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Group E details
Teams participating: Spain, Poland, Sweden, Slovakia
Euro 2020 Qualifying Results
Spain remained unbeaten in its qualifying run, finishing first in Group F with 26 points. It won eight and drew two games. Spain also had a sensational goal differential of +26, having scored 31 goals and conceding five.
Like Spain, Poland didn’t have too many problems finishing at the top of its group. It won eight, drew one and lost one to finish atop Group G with 25 points and a goal differential of +13.
Sweden had a slightly harder run into the main tournament. It finished second in Group F, behind Spain. It won six, drew three and lost one game to finish with 21 points and a goal differential of +14.
After finishing third in Group E, Slovakia had to qualify through the playoffs. It won four, drew one and lost three to finish with 13 points in eight games. Using Path B, Slovakia beat Republic of Ireland and then Northern Ireland in the playoffs to book its spot in the final tournament.
Euro 2020 Group E Betting Odds
Odds as of June 8 at Sportsbook
Euro 2020 Group E Odds Analysis
After a stellar run in qualifying, Spain (-280) will be the deserved favorite in the Euro 2020 Group E betting markets. Their experience and relative success at this level are unmatched and unparalleled in this group, and these will be massive factors in the final quarter of every game in this tournament.
The burning question for this group will be which team joins Spain? The answer is tricky because both Sweden (+600) and Poland (+550) have a chance of going through. Both teams have certain factors going for them and a few against. We’ll break those down below.
The underdog is Slovakia (+1400), which has made regular appearances at this level, but just doesn’t quite have the same skill level or personnel to be able to convert spirit into points.
Euro 2020 Group E Betting Tips
Don’t fret much while backing Spain to win this group. Even though odds of -280 aren’t compelling, it’s so low for a reason. Spain is a well-trained team with squad depth capable of going all the way. Spain has won its last three games against Poland. The last time Spain dropped points to Poland was back in 1994 in a friendly match. In Spain’s victorious 2008 tournament, it beat Sweden 2-1.
There is just too much class through all phases of the pitch that will be solely responsible for Spain winning this group without much of a hassle. Based on the Euro 2020 Group E betting odds, Spain’s implied probability to win the group, according to Odds Shark’s calculator, is 73.68 percent.
Euro 2020 Group E Value Picks
Here are some questions you have to ask yourself before making your decision. Firstly, since Sweden and Poland have nearly identical odds, which of those teams adds more value to your bet slip? Then, break it down to just the one game: Sweden vs Poland. Which team has the advantage on that night? Those two answers should help with picking the value pick from Group E.
With six wins and one draw, Sweden is unbeaten in its last seven games against Poland. Its last loss was back in August 1991. A lot has changed since then, including the quality of the soccer from Poland. Sweden and Poland’s implied probabilities, according to their Euro 2020 Group E betting odds, are 14.29 percent and 15.38 percent, respectively.
A Detailed Analysis on Spain
Head coach: Luis Enrique
Enrique had taken a brief break for personal reasons in June 2019. However, he returned to lead the Spanish national team in the second half of 2020.
Quote from the manager: “You can’t say we’re favorites – rather, we’re in a group of favorites, given what the national team have won despite our most recent tournament performances. We need to show we are confident and I’ll be reinforcing this to the players.”
Player to watch: Álvaro Morata will be the key player for Spain in the final third. He has moved around various leagues in the last few years but he has remained reliable for his country.
Top scorer in qualifying: Álvaro Morata, Sergio Ramos, Rodrigo all scored four goals.
Euro 2016 result: Spain lost 2-0 to Italy in the Round of 16 in the 2016 edition of this tournament.
Best result in past Euro cups: Spain won this tournament in 1964, 2008 and 2012.
Fun fact: Spain is the only team to have defended a Euro title, when it won in 2012 after a strong 2008 campaign.
Predicted Finish in Group E: Our Euro 2020 Group E betting prediction for Spain is first.
A Detailed Analysis on Poland
Head coach: Paulo Sousa
Sousa has coaching experience in several countries, including England, Hungary, Israel, Switzerland, Italy, China and France. He took over from Jerzy Brzęczek earlier this year.
Quote from the manager: “Poland is a country of football and I am sure with your enthusiasm, giving us the strength and support and belief of the national football team, together we will be able to fight for the next European championships.”
Player to watch: Robert Lewandowski, of course. Who else? Lewandowski has been the leading goalscorer in the Bundesliga for successive seasons running. He suffered a few injuries for Bayern this season but he is currently fit.
Top scorer in qualifying: Robert Lewandowski scored six goals to lead Poland in qualifying.
Euro 2016 result: Poland had a solid 2016 campaign. It made the 2016 quarters, where it lost to Portugal on penalties after a 1-1 draw.
Best result in past Euro cups: That 2016 run to the quarters was also Poland’s best across all editions.
Fun fact: When Poland faces Slovakia, it will be only its second competitive fixture. To date, 19 of 20 games between Poland and Czechoslovakia have been friendly matches.
Predicted Finish in Group E: Our Euro 2020 Group E betting prediction for Poland is second.
A Detailed Analysis on Sweden
Head coach: Janne Andersson
Andersson took over in 2016 and has been in charge of the national side since. He has even taken Sweden to the 2018 FIFA World Cup, its first appearance there in 12 years.
Quote from the manager: “Looking at the different groups, ours is not the toughest nor the easiest. We get later dates to play which gives us some extra days to prepare. We have a reasonable possibility of progressing, so we can just start preparing.”
Player to watch: Alexander Isak is just 21 years old but he has already broken several records. Currently in La Liga with Real Sociedad, he will be tasked with partnering Robin Quaison.
Top scorer in qualifying: Robin Quaison scored five goals in qualifying to lead his team.
Euro 2016 result: Sweden didn’t make it past the group stage in the previous edition.
Best result in past Euro cups: Back in 1992, Sweden made a terrific run to the semifinals, its best result.
Fun fact: For your Euro 2020 Group E betting, this could be an interesting fact. Sweden managed to win its group back in 1992. Sweden outclassed England, France and Denmark, who won that tournament, in the group stage.
Predicted Finish in Group E: Our Euro 2020 Group E betting prediction for Sweden is third.
A Detailed Analysis on Slovakia
Head coach: Štefan Tarkovič
Tarkovic was the assistant manager to Pavel Hapal for a while before he was promoted to head coach in December 2020.
Quote: “The most important thing for us is that a person who knows the team comes,” Slovakia FA president Jan Kovacik said about Tarkovic’s appointment.
Player to watch: Not surprising that the key player on this Slovakia team will be Marek Hamšík, who is currently playing in the Chinese league. He is the captain of the team.
Top scorer in qualifying: Róbert Boženík, Marek Hamšík, Juraj Kucka all scored three goals in qualifying.
Euro 2016 result: Slovakia lost 3-0 to Germany in the Round of 16 in the previous edition.
Best result in past Euro cups: That elimination in the Round of 16 was also its best result in this competition.
Fun fact: Sweden and Slovakia haven’t faced each other since a 2002 FIFA World Cup qualifying back in 2001. That was the first game as caretaker manager for current coach Tarkovic.
Predicted Finish in Group E: Our Euro 2020 Group E betting prediction for Slovakia is fourth.
Euro 2020 Group E Predictions
Spain is far too strong, on paper, to drop points to either of Sweden or Poland, let alone Slovakia. Soccer is packed with uncertainty, which means you might want to make room for an upset. Even with that additional buffer, it seems unlikely that Spain will finish anywhere but at the top of Group E.
Slovakia is no pushover. It came through the playoffs of qualifying by beating two solid teams in Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Yet, despite creating an air gap for another upset, it seems unlikely that Slovakia will finish anywhere but fourth.
Which Teams Will Advance?
That brings us back to that vital game between Poland and Sweden. It will be played on June 21 at St. Petersburg Stadium in Russia. “Poland is a great football nation and will be a tough match, just like Spain,” Sweden coach Andersson said about this fixture. That venue will ensure no home-ground advantage for either team.
Poland’s qualification might come down to the health of its players, Lewandowski in particular, considering he will be the focal point of its offense. Sweden, despite being solid defensively, might find it hard to keep him quiet. This is hardly an easy decision but I’d back Poland to at least come away with a draw on that night on June 21. If that’s the worst result Poland can muster, then there is a chance that it could even take a point off Spain. Those two draws might be enough to push Poland through even if Sweden thrashes Slovakia.
Sweden’s primary chance will be to outright beat Poland. Anything can happen on one night of soccer but I’d back Poland not to freeze on that crucial evening.
Our Euro 2020 Group E betting prediction is as follows: Spain to win all games to qualify with enviable comfort, Poland to finish second, Sweden to face the wrath of one bad night to finish third and Slovakia not to make much of an impact in a fourth-place finish.